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Uncertainty and central bank transparency: A non-Bayesian approach

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  • Laskar, Daniel

Abstract

We use a non-Bayesian approach to uncertainty, where “ambiguity” is taken into account, in order to analyze the issue of central bank transparency, and we underline that the use of such an approach may greatly change the results. We reconsider a specific argument against transparency found in the literature. We show that, in the presence of ambiguity, the argument can become a case in favor of transparency, which seems more in accordance with some stylized facts. Reduced Knightian uncertainty associated with increased transparency can contribute to making transparency beneficial.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Research in Economics.

Volume (Year): 66 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 82-96

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Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:66:y:2012:i:1:p:82-96

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622941

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Keywords: Central bank transparency; Knightian uncertainty; Ambiguity; Non-Bayesian approach; Political uncertainty;

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  1. Cukierman, A. & Lippi, F., 1998. "Central Bank Independence, Centralization of Wage Bargaining, Inflation and Unemployment - Theory and Some Evidence," Discussion Paper 1998-116, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Faust, Jon & Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals," CEPR Discussion Papers 1852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Eichberger, J. & Kelsey, D., 1996. "E-Capacities and the Ellsberg Paradox," Discussion Papers 96-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  4. Daniel Ellsberg, 2000. "Risk, Ambiguity and the Savage Axioms," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7605, David K. Levine.
  5. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-45, December.
  6. Thibault Gadjos & Jean-Marc Tallon & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2002. "Decision Making with Imprecise Probabilistic Information," Working Papers 2002-33, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  7. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2008. "Central bank's conservativeness and transparency," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(4), pages 179-187, December.
  8. Cruijsen, C.A.B. van der & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency: A Survey," Discussion Paper 2007-06, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  9. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
  10. S[empty]rensen, Jan Rose, 1991. "Political uncertainty and macroeconomic performance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 377-381, December.
  11. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
  12. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
  13. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
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