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The political and institutional determinants of fiscal adjustment: Entering and exiting fiscal distress

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  • Lavigne, Robert
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    Abstract

    The literature on fiscal adjustment focuses on the determinants of "successful" adjustment episodes that generate desirable outcomes (such as lower debt levels), but it generally ignores whether an adjustment is needed or not. This paper introduces the notion of adjustment need, which is a period of severe fiscal distress that signals a clear need for consolidation. This new concept allows the author to empirically investigate the role of political and institutional factors in determining why countries get into fiscal distress, why some are able to fiscally consolidate when required, and why others are unable to adjust despite an evident need to do so. For developing economies, strong scores for broad measures of institutional quality (e.g. rule of law indices) are found to help avoid situations of fiscal distress, but weaker scores characterize those countries that actually manage to make large adjustments. For advanced countries, the results highlight the importance of budgetary institutions: fiscal rules contribute to avoiding situations of fiscal distress, and fiscal performance management systems improve the odds of implementing adjustments.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Political Economy.

    Volume (Year): 27 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 17-35

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:27:y:2011:i:1:p:17-35

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505544

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    Keywords: Fiscal adjustment Political economy Fiscal institutions;

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    Cited by:
    1. Falcó-Gimeno, Albert & Jurado, Ignacio, 2011. "Minority governments and budget deficits: The role of the opposition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 554-565, September.
    2. Shun-ichiro Bessho & Kimiko Terai, 2013. "Fiscal restraints by advisors," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 205-232, August.
    3. F. Heylen & A. Hoebeeck & T. Buyse, 2011. "Fiscal consolidation, institutions and institutional reform: a multivariate analysis of public debt dynamics," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration 11/763, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Sacchi, Agnese & Salotti, Simone, 2014. "The impact of national fiscal rules on the stabilisation function of fiscal policy," MPRA Paper 56982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Wiese, Rasmus, 2013. "Do political or economic factors drive healthcare financing privatisations? Empirical evidence from OECD countries," Research Report 13005-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).

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