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Risk, uncertainty, and the dynamics of inequality

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  • Kasa, Kenneth
  • Lei, Xiaowen

Abstract

The dynamics of wealth inequality are studied in a continuous-time Blanchard/Yaari model. Investment returns are idiosyncratic and subject to Knightian uncertainty. In response, agents formulate robust portfolio policies. These policies are nonhomothetic; wealthy agents invest a higher fraction of their wealth in uncertain assets yielding higher mean returns. This produces a feedback mechanism that amplifies inequality. It also produces an accelerated rate of convergence, which helps resolve a puzzle recently identified by Gabaix et al. (2016). An empirically plausible increase in uncertainty can account for about half of the recent increase in top wealth shares.

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  • Kasa, Kenneth & Lei, Xiaowen, 2018. "Risk, uncertainty, and the dynamics of inequality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 60-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:94:y:2018:i:c:p:60-78
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.11.008
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    3. Matthias Birkner & Niklas Scheuer & Klaus Wälde, 2023. "The dynamics of Pareto distributed wealth in a small open economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 76(2), pages 607-644, August.
    4. Andreas Fagereng & Martin Blomhoff Holm & Benjamin Moll & Gisle Natvik, 2019. "Saving Behavior Across the Wealth Distribution: The Importance of Capital Gains," NBER Working Papers 26588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Obiakor, Rowland & Akpa, Emeka & Okwu, Andy, 2022. "Economic Size, Uncertainty, and Income Inequality in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 113637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Klaus Prettner & Andreas Schaefer, 2021. "The U‐Shape of Income Inequality over the 20th Century: The Role of Education," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(2), pages 645-675, April.
    7. Fischer, Manfred M. & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2021. "The regional transmission of uncertainty shocks on income inequality in the United States," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 887-900.
    8. Edouard Djeutem & Shaofeng Xu, 2019. "Model Uncertainty and Wealth Distribution," Staff Working Papers 19-48, Bank of Canada.
    9. Beare, Brendan K. & Seo, Won-Ki & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2022. "Tail Behavior Of Stopped Lévy Processes With Markov Modulation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(5), pages 986-1013, October.
    10. Toda, Alexis Akira, 2019. "Wealth distribution with random discount factors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 101-113.
    11. Goodness C. Aye & Laurence Harris, 2019. "The effect of real exchange rate volatility on income distribution in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-29, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Émilien Gouin‐Bonenfant & Alexis Akira Toda, 2023. "Pareto extrapolation: An analytical framework for studying tail inequality," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 201-233, January.
    13. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Wang, Haijun, 2022. "Ignorance, pervasive uncertainty, and household finance," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    14. Yves Achdou & Jiequn Han & Jean-Michel Lasry & Pierre-Louis Lions & Benjamin Moll, 2017. "Income and Wealth Distribution in Macroeconomics: A Continuous-Time Approach," NBER Working Papers 23732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Lei, Xiaowen, 2019. "Information and Inequality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    16. Fischer, Thomas, 2019. "Determinants of Wealth Inequality and Mobility in General Equilibrium," Working Papers 2019:22, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    17. Yulei Luo & Jun Nie & Eric R Young, 2020. "Ambiguity, Low Risk-Free Rates and Consumption Inequality," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(632), pages 2649-2679.
    18. Böhl, Gregor & Fischer, Thomas, 2017. "Can taxation predict US top-wealth share dynamics?," IMFS Working Paper Series 118, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    19. Aditya Aladangady & Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & William B. Peterman, 2021. "Macroeconomic Implications of Inequality and Income Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2018. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on inequality: An empirical study for the UK," MPRA Paper 90448, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inequality; Robustness;

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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