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Ongoing ascent to the helium production plateau--Insights from system dynamics

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  • Cai, Zhiming
  • Clarke, Richard H.
  • Glowacki, Bartek A.
  • Nuttall, William J.
  • Ward, Nick

Abstract

Recent, pre-downturn, disturbance in the global helium market can be traced to the tight supply-demand position, which characterizes today's changing helium supply structure. A detailed System Dynamics model provides fresh insight into the helium question and suggests a production path that is closely associated with future natural gas production. Venting of un-extracted helium to the atmosphere remains a central issue. The model indicates that improving resource exploitation strategies might extend a production plateau that emerges in the 2030s. Substitution will result in more helium being vented. To mitigate this, the industry needs to ensure security of supply (particularly after the Bureau of Land Management reserve is sold).

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  • Cai, Zhiming & Clarke, Richard H. & Glowacki, Bartek A. & Nuttall, William J. & Ward, Nick, 2010. "Ongoing ascent to the helium production plateau--Insights from system dynamics," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 77-89, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:35:y:2010:i:2:p:77-89
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Becerra-Fernandez, Mauricio & Cosenz, Federico & Dyner, Isaac, 2020. "Modeling the natural gas supply chain for sustainable growth policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    2. Massol, Olivier & Rifaat, Omer, 2018. "Phasing out the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Policy insights from a world helium model," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 186-211.
    3. Rooney, Matthew & Nuttall, William J. & Kazantzis, Nikolaos, 2015. "A dynamic model of the global uranium market and the nuclear fuel cycle," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 50-60.
    4. Malinowski, Ethan & Karwan, Mark H. & Pinto, José M. & Sun, Lei, 2018. "A mixed-integer programming strategy for liquid helium global supply chain planning," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 168-188.
    5. Saldarriaga-Isaza, Adrián & Villegas-Palacio, Clara & Arango, Santiago, 2013. "The public good dilemma of a non-renewable common resource: A look at the facts of artisanal gold mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 224-232.
    6. Gao, Jiayang & Zhang, Tao, 2022. "Effects of public funding on the commercial diffusion of on-site hydrogen production technology: A system dynamics perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    7. Anna Hulda Olafsdottir & Harald Ulrik Sverdrup, 2020. "Assessing the Past and Future Sustainability of Global Helium Resources, Extraction, Supply and Use, Using the Integrated Assessment Model WORLD7," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, June.
    8. Ponzo, Ricardo & Dyner, Isaac & Arango, Santiago & Larsen, Erik R., 2011. "Regulation and development of the Argentinean gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1070-1079, March.

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