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Information, investment, and the stock market: A study of investment revision data of Japanese manufacturing industries

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Author Info
Ogawa, Kazuo
Suzuki, Kazuyuki

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Abstract

We examined investment behavior in the Japanese manufacturing industry using investment revision data to analyze investment behavior from a fresh angle. We tested the martingale investment hypothesis and then the q-theory of investment by looking at the response of stock return and investment to news arriving at firms. The martingale hypothesis was accepted at early stage of investment planning, but not at later stages. We also found evidence for the validity of the q-theory hypothesis. Investment was responsive to profit rate revision and sales revision, but stock return responded only to profit rate revision. Further investigation revealed that investment was also motivated by expansion of market share for sales, especially for industries with rapid technological progress. J. Japanese Int. Economies 22 (4) (2008) 663-676.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of the Japanese and International Economies.

Volume (Year): 22 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 663-676
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Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:22:y:2008:i:4:p:663-676

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622903

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Keywords: Investment revision Martingale Stock return q theory Market share Flexible accelerator theory;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Schiantarelli, F. & Georgoutsos, D., 1990. "Monopolistic competition and the Q theory of investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1061-1078, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mark Schankerman, 2002. "Idiosyncratic and Common Shocks to Investment Decisions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 766-785, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Owen A. Lamont, 2000. "Investment Plans and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2719-2745, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Blanchard, Olivier & Rhee, Changyong & Summers, Lawrence, 1993. "The Stock Market, Profit, and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 115-36, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Owen Lamont, . "Investment Plans and Stock Returns."," CRSP working papers 488, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  8. Ogawa, K. & Kitasaka, S.I., 1995. "Market Valuation and the Q-Theory Investment," Papers 383, Osaka - Institute of Social and Economic Research.
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