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The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy announcements in the euro area: An event and econometric study

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  • Ambler, Steve
  • Rumler, Fabio

Abstract

We use daily data on government bond yields and market-based inflation expectations to measure the announcement effects of unconventional monetary policy announcements in the euro area, focusing on their impact on ex-ante real interest rates. We find evidence of statistically significant effects of several announcements on real interest rates at maturities of two, five and ten years that operate partly through nominal interest rates and partly by raising inflation expectations. Announcements that exceeded market expectations significantly reduced nominal and real interest rates while announcements that disappointed expectations had the opposite effect.

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  • Ambler, Steve & Rumler, Fabio, 2019. "The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy announcements in the euro area: An event and econometric study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 48-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:94:y:2019:i:c:p:48-61
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.02.007
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    2. Fendel, Ralf & Neugebauer, Frederik & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2021. "Reactions of euro area government yields to Covid-19 related policy measure announcements by the European Commission and the European Central Bank," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    3. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar & Kazemi, Mina, 2020. "The effects of macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary policy announcements on sovereign bond spreads," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Jiarui Zhang & Yingying Shi, 2024. "The resource reallocation effect of monetary policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 665-683, January.
    5. Havlik, Annika & Heinemann, Friedrich & Helbig, Samuel & Nover, Justus, 2022. "Dispelling the shadow of fiscal dominance? Fiscal and monetary announcement effects for euro area sovereign spreads in the corona pandemic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    6. Clara De Luigi & Martin Feldkircher & Philipp Poyntner & Helene Schuberth, 2019. "Effects of the ECB’s Unconventional Monetary Policy on Real and Financial Wealth," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp286, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    7. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 115-175, February.
    8. David Tercero‐Lucas, 2023. "Nonstandard monetary policies and bank profitability: The case of Spain," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2248-2277, July.
    9. Cecchetti, Stephen G. & Narita, Machiko & Rawat, Umang & Sahay, Ratna, 2023. "Addressing Spillovers from Prolonged U.S. Monetary Policy Easing," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Sofya Kolesnik & Elizaveta Dobronravova, 2022. "Modelling the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 81(1), pages 3-22, March.
    11. Shahriyar Aliyev & Evžen Kočenda, 2023. "ECB monetary policy and commodity prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 274-304, February.
    12. Radeef Chundakkadan & Subash Sasidharan, 2022. "Monetary Policy Announcement and Stock Returns - Evidence From Long-Term Repo Operations in India," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 3(2), pages 1-6.
    13. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2020. "International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    14. Laine, Olli-Matti, 2022. "Evidence about the transmission of monetary policy," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number e53.
    15. Aßhoff, Sina & Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    16. Boris Hofmann & Anamaria Illes & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Paul Mizen, 2020. "The impact of unconventional monetary policies on retail lending and deposit rates in the euro area," BIS Working Papers 850, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Fu, Liang & Ho, Chun-Yu, 2022. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates under China's evolving monetary policy framework," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    18. Laine, Olli-Matti & Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2023. "Assessing targeted longer-term refinancing operations: Identification through search intensity," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2023, Bank of Finland.
    19. Clara De Luigi & Martin Feldkircher & Philipp Poyntner & Helene Schuberth, 2023. "Quantitative Easing and Wealth Inequality: The Asset Price Channel," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 638-670, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unconventional monetary policy; Announcement effects; Market-based inflation expectations; Real yields;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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