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Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Macroeconomic Effects

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Abstract

I propose to identify announcement-specific decompositions of asset price changes into monetary policy shocks exploiting heteroskedasticity in intraday data. This approach accommodates both changes in the nature of shocks and the state of the economy across announcements, allowing me to explicitly compare shocks across announcements. I compute decompositions with respect to Fed Funds, forward guidance, asset purchase, and Fed information shocks for 2007-19. Only a handful of announcements spark significant shocks. Both forward guidance and asset purchase shocks lower corporate yields and uncertainty and raise spreads and equities on impact; Fed information shocks raise yields and lower uncertainty. However, only asset purchase shocks significantly stimulate the macroeconomy, raising inflation and industrial production and lowering the unemployment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel J. Lewis, 2019. "Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Macroeconomic Effects," Staff Reports 891, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:891
    Note: Revised May 2021.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sumner, Scott, 2020. "Currency Manipulation, Saving Manipulation, and the Current Account Balance," Working Papers 07761, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
    2. Gnewuch, Matthias, 2022. "Spillover effects of sovereign debt-based quantitative easing in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Daniel J. Lewis & Christos Makridis & Karel Mertens, 2019. "Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations?," Staff Reports 897, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Mirela Miescu, 2022. "Forward guidance shocks," Working Papers 352591340, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    5. Couture, Cody, 2021. "Financial market effects of FOMC projections," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Jarociński, Marek, 2021. "Estimating the Fed’s Unconventional Policy Shocks," Working Paper Series 20210, European Central Bank.
    7. Jarociński, Marek, 2021. "Estimating Fed’s unconventional policy shocks," Working Paper Series 2585, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    high-frequency identification; time-varying volatility; monetary policy shocks; forward guidance; quantitative easing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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