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Compounding food and income insecurity in Yemen: Challenges from climate change

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  • Wiebelt, Manfred
  • Breisinger, Clemens
  • Ecker, Olivier
  • Al-Riffai, Perrihan
  • Robertson, Richard
  • Thiele, Rainer

Abstract

This paper provides a model-based assessment of local and global climate change impacts for the case of Yemen, focusing on agricultural production, household incomes and food security. Global climate change is mainly transmitted through rising world food prices. Our simulation results suggest that climate change induced price increases for food will raise agricultural GDP while decreasing real household incomes and food security. Rural non-farm households are hit hardest as they tend to be net food consumers with high food budget shares, but farm households also experience real income losses given that many of them are net buyers of food. The impacts of local climate change are less clear given the ambiguous predictions of global climate models (GCMs) with respect to future rainfall patterns in Yemen. Local climate change impacts manifest itself in long term yield changes, which differ between two alternative climate scenarios considered. Under the MIR scenario, agricultural GDP is somewhat higher than with perfect mitigation and rural incomes rise due to higher yields and lower prices for sorghum and millet. Under the CSI scenario, positive and negative yield changes cancel each other out. As a result, agricultural GDP and household incomes hardly change compared to perfect mitigation.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Food Policy.

Volume (Year): 43 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 77-89

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:43:y:2013:i:c:p:77-89

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol

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Keywords: Climate change; Agricultural productivity; Growth; Food security; Yemen; Middle East and North Africa;

References

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  1. World Bank & United Nations & European Union & Islamic Development Bank, 2012. "Joint Social and Economic Assessment for the Republic of Yemen," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11920, The World Bank.
  2. You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley, 2006. "An entropy approach to spatial disaggregation of agricultural production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-3), pages 329-347, October.
  3. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Koo, Jawoo & Robertson, Richard & Sulser, Timothy & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & Palazzo, Amanda & Batka, Miroslav & Magalhaes, Marilia & Va, 2009. "Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation," Food policy reports 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Benson, Todd & Minot, Nicholas & Pender, John & Robles, Miguel & von Braun, Joachim, 2013. "Information to guide policy responses to higher global food prices: The data and analyses required," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 47-58.
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  6. Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Funes, Jose & Yu, Bingxin, 2010. "Food as the basis for development and security: A strategy for Yemen," IFPRI discussion papers 1036, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  7. Maddison, David & Manley, Marita & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, 2007. "The impact of climate change on African agriculture : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4306, The World Bank.
  8. Clemens Breisinger & Xinshen Diao & Marieā€Helen Collion & Pierre Rondot, 2011. "Impacts of the Triple Global Crisis on Growth and Poverty: The Case of Yemen," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 29(2), pages 155-184, 03.
  9. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Synthesis Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12750, The World Bank.
  10. Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen, 2008. "Economic transformation in theory and practice: What are the messages for Africa?," IFPRI discussion papers 797, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  11. de Melo, Jaime, 1988. "Computable general equilibrium models for trade policy analysis in developing countries: A survey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 469-503.
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