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The impact of climate change on African agriculture : a ricardian approach

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  • Maddison, David
  • Manley, Marita
  • Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep

Abstract

This paper uses the Ricardian approach to examine how farmers in 11 countries in Africa have adapted to existing climatic conditions. It then estimates the effects of predicted changes in climate while accounting for whatever farmer adaptation might occur. This study differs from earlier ones by using farmers'own perceptions of the value of their land. Previous research, by contrast, has relied on either observed sale prices or net revenues, sometimes aggregated over geographically large tracts of terrain. The study also makes use of high resolution data describing soil quality and runoff.Furthermore, it tackles the challenges involved in modeling the effect of climate on agriculture in a study that includes countries in the northern and southern hemispheres, as well as the tropics. The study confirms that African agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Even with perfect adaptation, regional climate change by 2050 is predicted to entail production losses of 19.9 percent for Burkina Faso and 30.5 percent for Niger. By contrast, countries such as Ethiopia and South Africa are hardly affected at all, suffering productivity losses of only 1.3 percent and 3 percent, respectively. The study also confirms the importance of water supplies as measured by runoff, which, being affected by both temperature and precipitation, may itself be highly sensitive to climate change.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4306.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4306

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Related research

Keywords: Environmental Economics&Policies; Climate Change; Common Property Resource Development; Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems; Global Environment Facility;

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Cited by:
  1. Boubacar, Inoussa, 2010. "Agricultural Productivity, Drought, and Economic Growth in Sahel," 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida 56321, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  2. Allen, Summer L. & Badiane, Ousmane & Ulimwengu, John M., 2012. "Government Expenditures, Social Outcomes, and Marginal Productivity of Agricultural Inputs: A Case Study for Tanzania," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126663, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Wiebelt, Manfred & Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Robertson, Richard & Thiele, Rainer, 2013. "Compounding food and income insecurity in Yemen: Challenges from climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 77-89.
  4. John Horowitz, 2009. "The Income–Temperature Relationship in a Cross-Section of Countries and its Implications for Predicting the Effects of Global Warming," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(4), pages 475-493, December.

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