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Do poverty and poor health and nutrition increase the risk of armed conflict onset?

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  • Pinstrup-Andersen, Per
  • Shimokawa, Satoru
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    Abstract

    We analyze the effects of improving the economic, food security and health status on the risk of armed cotntectflict onset, focusing on the factors related to the millennium development goals. We employ the discrete-time hazard model that allows us to examine the time-varying effects of socioeconomic factors controlling for the reverse effect of conflict. Our results show that income poverty and poor health and nutritional status are more significantly associated with armed conflict onset than GDP per capita, annual GDP growth, and the ratio of primary commodity exports over GDP. In particular, poor health and nutritional status seems to play a key role in inducing armed conflicts in poor countries. These results indicate that, when a majority of the poor and the malnourished resides in rural areas and depends on agriculture directly or indirectly, investments in public goods for agriculture and rural areas can be effective tools to achieve the multiple goals of reduced poverty, food security and armed conflict, including riots in early 2008 triggered by high food prices. Food policy can be an effective element of efforts to maintain stability.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Food Policy.

    Volume (Year): 33 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 6 (December)
    Pages: 513-520

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:33:y:2008:i:6:p:513-520

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol

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    Keywords: Armed conflict Poverty Nutrition Health The millennium development goals;

    References

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    1. Nisha Arunatilake & Sisira Kumara Jayasuriya & Saman Kelegama, 1999. "The Economic Cost of the War in Sri Lanka," Working Papers 1999.10, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    2. Frances Stewart, . "Crisis Prevention: Tackling Horizontal Inequalities," QEH Working Papers qehwps33, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    3. Alan B. Krueger & Jitka Maleckova, 2003. "Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
    4. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13938, October.
    5. Christopher Cramer, 2003. "Does inequality cause conflict?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 397-412.
    6. Nicholas Sambanis, 2002. "A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 215-243.
    7. Svedberg, Peter, 1999. "841 Million Undernourished?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(12), pages 2081-2098, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. D'Haese, Marijke F.C. & Speelman, Stijn & Vandamme, Ellen & Nkunzimana, Tharcisse & Ndimubandi, Jean & D'Haese, Luc, 2010. "Recovering from conflict: an analysis of food production in Burundi," 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa 96829, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE);Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA).
    2. Maystadt, Jean-François & Trinh Tan, Jean-François & Breisinger, Clemens, 2014. "Does food security matter for transition in Arab countries?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 106-115.
    3. Berazneva, Julia & Lee, David R., 2013. "Explaining the African food riots of 2007–2008: An empirical analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-39.

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