Economic Consequences of War: Evidence from Sri Lanka
AbstractWe propose a theoretical and econometric framework to evaluate the impact of war on economic growth of a developing country with an open economy. The theoretical framework encompasses both the neoclassical and endogenous growth models. The econometric model is derived from the theoretical framework and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag framework is used for the estimation. We test this framework using Sri Lankan data. The war had significant and negative effects both in the short and long-run (annual average of 9% of GDP). High returns from investment in physical capital did not translate in sizable positive externalities. No significant effects of openness on growth in the long-run are found; however, effects are significant in the short- run. Inconsistent politically driven policies towards openness are the likely reason. As the ethnic conflict has finally come to an end, a policy framework with appropriate institutional reforms is needed for rapid growth and development.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series Discussion Papers Series with number 453.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Ganegodage, K. Renuka & Rambaldi, Alicia N., 2014. "Economic consequences of war: Evidence from Sri Lanka," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 42-53.
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-03-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-CWA-2012-03-08 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-FDG-2012-03-08 (Financial Development & Growth)
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