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Disagreement, speculation, and aggregate investment

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  • Baker, Steven D.
  • Hollifield, Burton
  • Osambela, Emilio

Abstract

When investors disagree, speculation between them alters equilibrium prices in financial markets. Because managers maximize firm value given financial market prices, disagreement alters firms' value-maximizing investment policies. Disagreement therefore impacts aggregate investment, consumption, and output. In a production economy with recursive preferences and disasters, we demonstrate that static disagreement among investors generates dynamic aggregate investment that is positively correlated with capital shocks, leading to stochastic volatility in aggregate consumption, investment, and equity returns. The direction of these effects is consistent with business cycle facts, and with several features of the 2008 financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Baker, Steven D. & Hollifield, Burton & Osambela, Emilio, 2016. "Disagreement, speculation, and aggregate investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 210-225.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:119:y:2016:i:1:p:210-225
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2015.08.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Irfan Ahmed & Claudio Socci & Ali Medabesh & Francesca Severini & Jacopo Zotti, 2021. "Economic impact of monetary policy: Focus on real estate sector in Italy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1256-1269, January.
    3. Gao, Bin & Liu, Xihua, 2020. "Intraday sentiment and market returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 48-62.
    4. Alexander, Carol & Chen, Xi & Ward, Charles, 2021. "Risk-adjusted valuation for real option decisions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 1046-1064.
    5. Buss, Adrian & Dumas, Bernard & Uppal, Raman & Vilkov, Grigory, 2016. "The intended and unintended consequences of financial-market regulations: A general-equilibrium analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 25-43.
    6. Dindo, Pietro, 2019. "Survival in speculative markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 1-43.
    7. Alexander Zimper, 2023. "Belief aggregation for representative agent models," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 19(2), pages 309-342, June.
    8. Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen & Philipp Illeditsch, 2018. "Demand Disagreement," 2018 Meeting Papers 607, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Jia, Yun & Yang, Chunpeng, 2017. "Disagreement and the risk-return relation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 97-104.
    10. Steven D Baker & Burton Hollifield & Emilio Osambela, 2020. "Preventing Controversial Catastrophes," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 1-60.
    11. Gao, George P. & Lu, Xiaomeng & Song, Zhaogang & Yan, Hongjun, 2019. "Disagreement beta," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 96-113.
    12. Park, Sunjin, 2022. "Heterogeneous beliefs in macroeconomic growth prospects and the carry risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    13. Driouchi, Tarik & So, Raymond H.Y. & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2020. "Investor ambiguity, systemic banking risk and economic activity: The case of too-big-to-fail," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Yingjie Niu & Siqi Zhao & Zhentao Zou, 2023. "Endogenous discounting, investment and asset pricing," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 644-650, January.
    15. Buss, Adrian & Vilkov, Grigory & Uppal, Raman, 2020. "Investor Sophistication and Portfolio Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 15116, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Wang, Yuanping & Mu, Congming, 2019. "Can ambiguity about rare disasters explain equity premium puzzle?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1-1.
    17. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2021. "Time-varying uncertainty and variance risk premium," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    18. Steven D. Baker & Burton Hollifield & Emilio Osambela, 2018. "Preventing Controversial Catastrophes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-052, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Irfan Ahmed & Claudio Socci & Francesca Severini & Rosita Pretaroli & Hassan Kasady Al Mahdi, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy and real estate sector: a financial dynamic computable general equilibrium model for Italy," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 221-238, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heterogeneous beliefs; Disaster risk; Financial speculation; General equilibrium; Asset pricing; Real investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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