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No trade and yes trade theorems for heterogeneous priors

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  • Gizatulina, Alia
  • Hellman, Ziv

Abstract

We show that contrary to currently widely-held misperceptions, the classical no trade theorem obtains even under heterogeneous priors. That is, when priors are not common, speculative trade is still impossible under common knowledge of rationality. However, trade becomes mutually acceptable if at least one party to the trade puts at least some slight probability on the other party being irrational. We also derive bounds on disagreements in the case of heterogeneous priors and common p-beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Gizatulina, Alia & Hellman, Ziv, 2019. "No trade and yes trade theorems for heterogeneous priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 161-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:182:y:2019:i:c:p:161-184
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2019.04.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Sirio Aramonte, 2022. "Inflation risk and the labor market: beneath the surface of a flat Phillips curve," BIS Working Papers 1054, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Inoua, Sabiou M. & Smith, Vernon L., 2023. "A classical model of speculative asset price dynamics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speculative trade; No trade theorem; No betting theorem; Common priors; Common knowledge; Rationality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games

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