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Unawareness, Beliefs and Speculative Trade

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Author Info

  • Aviad Heifetz
  • Martin Meier
  • Burkhard C. Schipper

    (Department of Economics, University of California Davis)

Abstract

We define a generalized state-space model with interactive unawareness and probabilistic beliefs. Such models are desirable for potential applications of asymmetric unawareness. We compare unawareness with probability zero belief. Applying our unawareness belief structures, we show that the common prior assumption is too weak to rule out speculative trade in all states. Yet, we prove a generalized ""No-trade"" theorem according to which there can not be common certainty of strict preference to trade. Moreover, we show a generalization of the ""No-agreeing-to-disagree"" theorem.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of California, Davis, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 920.

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Length: 43
Date of creation: 06 Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:09-20

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Related research

Keywords: unawareness; awareness; zero probability; type-space; common prior; agreement; speculative trade; interactive epistemology;

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References

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  1. Martin Meier & Burkhard Schipper, 2013. "Bayesian Games with Unawareness and Unawareness Perfection," Working Papers 139, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  2. Paul Milgrom & Nancy L.Stokey, 1979. "Information, Trade, and Common Knowledge," Discussion Papers 377R, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  3. Aviad Heifetz & Martin Meier & Burkhard Schipper, 2011. "Dynamic unawareness and rationalizable behavior," Working Papers 113, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  4. HEIFETZ, Aviad & MEIER, Martin & SCHIPPER, Burkhard C., 2004. "Interactive unawareness," CORE Discussion Papers 2004059, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  5. Heifetz, Aviad & Meier, Martin & Schipper, Burkhard C., 2008. "A canonical model for interactive unawareness," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 304-324, January.
  6. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2008. "Information Acquisition and Under-Diversification," NBER Working Papers 13904, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Heifetz, Aviad & Meier, Martin & Schipper, Burkhard C, 2011. "Prudent rationalizability in generalized extensive-form games," MPRA Paper 30220, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Halpern, Joseph Y., 2002. "Characterizing the Common Prior Assumption," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 316-355, October.
  9. Samet, Dov, 1998. "Common Priors and Separation of Convex Sets," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 172-174, July.
  10. Modica, Salvatore & Rustichini, Aldo, 1999. "Unawareness and Partitional Information Structures," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 265-298, May.
  11. Joseph Y. Halpern, 2000. "Alternative Semantics for Unawareness," Game Theory and Information 0004010, EconWPA.
  12. Martin Meier & Burkhard C. Schipper, 2013. "Speculative Trade under Unawareness: The Infinite Case," Working Papers 102, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  13. Spyros Galanis, 2013. "Unawareness of theorems," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 41-73, January.
  14. Salvatore Modica, 2008. "Unawareness, priors and posteriors," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 81-94, November.
  15. Jing Li, 2008. "A Note on Unawareness and Zero Probability," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-022, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  16. Heifetz, Aviad, 2006. "The positive foundation of the common prior assumption," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 105-120, July.
  17. Harborne W. Stuart Jr. & Hong Hu, 2002. "An epistemic analysis of the Harsanyi transformation," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 517-525.
  18. Dov Samet, 1999. "Bayesianism without Learning," Game Theory and Information 9902004, EconWPA.
  19. Oliver Board, 2008. "Object-Based Unawareness: Theory and Applications," Working Papers 378, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2009.
  20. Eddie Dekel & Barton L. Lipman & Aldo Rustichini, 1998. "Standard State-Space Models Preclude Unawareness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 159-174, January.
  21. Monderer, Dov & Samet, Dov, 1989. "Approximating common knowledge with common beliefs," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 170-190, June.
  22. Giacomo Bonanno & Klaus Nehring, 1999. "How to make sense of the common prior assumption under incomplete information," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 409-434.
  23. Ewerhart, Christian, 2001. "Heterogeneous Awareness and the Possibility of Agreement," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 01-30, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  24. Li, Jing, 2009. "Information structures with unawareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 977-993, May.
  25. Leandro Rêgo & Joseph Halpern, 2012. "Generalized solution concepts in games with possibly unaware players," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 131-155, February.
  26. Morris, Stephen, 1994. "Trade with Heterogeneous Prior Beliefs and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1327-47, November.
  27. Thomas Leonard, 2008. "Richard H. Thaler, Cass R. Sunstein, Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 356-360, December.
  28. John Geanakoplos, 1989. "Game Theory Without Partitions, and Applications to Speculation and Consensus," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 914, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  29. Heinsalu, Sander, 2012. "Equivalence of the information structure with unawareness to the logic of awareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(6), pages 2453-2468.
  30. Morris, Stephen, 1995. "The Common Prior Assumption in Economic Theory," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 227-253, October.
  31. Samet, Dov, 1990. "Ignoring ignorance and agreeing to disagree," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 190-207, October.
  32. Galanis, Spyros, 2013. "Trade and the value of information under unawareness," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 1313, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  33. Halpern, Joseph Y. & Rego, Leandro Chaves, 2008. "Interactive unawareness revisited," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 232-262, January.
  34. Spyros Galanis, 2011. "Syntactic foundations for unawareness of theorems," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 71(4), pages 593-614, October.
  35. Feinberg, Yossi, 2000. "Characterizing Common Priors in the Form of Posteriors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 127-179, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Burkhard Schipper, 2010. "Revealed Unawareness," Working Papers 105, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  2. Spyros Galanis, 2013. "Unawareness of theorems," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 41-73, January.
  3. Heinsalu, Sander, 2014. "Universal type structures with unawareness," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 255-266.
  4. Sarah Auster, 2011. "Asymmetric Awareness and Moral Hazard," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/, European University Institute.
  5. Meier, Martin & Schipper, Burkhard C, 2010. "Speculative Trade under Unawareness: The Infinite Case," MPRA Paper 20632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Auster, Sarah, 2013. "Asymmetric awareness and moral hazard," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 503-521.

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