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Momentum is really short-term momentum

Author

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  • Gong, Qiang
  • Liu, Ming
  • Liu, Qianqiu

Abstract

We demonstrate the estimation biases that arise when stock returns from 12month prior and 2month prior are included within intermediate and recent past momentum profits. These biases lead to an overestimation of intermediate past momentum but an underestimation of recent past momentum in the US market. There is no significant difference between the predictability of stock performance in the intermediate past and the recent past once we exclude these two months from the construction of momentum strategies in the US and each of the 26 major international markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Gong, Qiang & Liu, Ming & Liu, Qianqiu, 2015. "Momentum is really short-term momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 169-182.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:50:y:2015:i:c:p:169-182
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.10.002
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    Cited by:

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    3. Daniel Chai & Manapon Limkriangkrai & Philip Inyeob Ji, 2017. "Momentum in weekly returns: the role of intermediate-horizon past performance," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57, pages 45-68, April.
    4. Zhang, Wei & Wang, Guanying & Wang, Xingchun & Xiong, Xiong & Lei, Xuan, 2018. "Profitability of reversal strategies: A modified version of the Carhart model in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 26-37.
    5. Daniel Hofmann & Karl Ludwig Keiber, 2021. "Seasonalities in the German stock market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(2), pages 151-192, June.
    6. Martin H. Schmidt, 2017. "Trading strategies based on past returns: evidence from Germany," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(2), pages 201-256, May.
    7. Du, Qianqian & Liang, Dawei & Chen, Zilin & Tu, Jun, 2022. "Concept links and return momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Chen, Tsung-Yu & Chou, Pin-Huang & Hsieh, Chia-Hsun & Ghon Rhee, S., 2021. "Momentum life cycle, revisited," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    9. Haga, Jesper, 2015. "Intermediate-term momentum and credit rating," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 59-67.
    10. Jach, Agnieszka, 2017. "International stock market comovement in time and scale outlined with a thick pen," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 115-129.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Momentum; Reversal; Seasonality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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