Dynamics and causality in industry-specific volatility
AbstractThis paper presents comprehensive empirical evidence on the dynamics and causality within 30 US industry-specific volatilities during July 1963 and June 2008. We find that linear trends are present in 17 of the 30 industry volatilities. Granger-causality tests reveal that the industry of business supplies and the industry of finance are the most important lead indicators of industry volatilities. To uncover contemporaneous causal relationships in the market, we implement an emerging data-driven method of directed acyclic graphs. The results suggest that volatility shocks originating from business supplies, machinery, and consumer goods industries are sources of risks that affect most other industries. By contrast, volatilities in the two traditionally important industries, oil and autos, do not appear to have a substantial influence on other large industries in the contemporaneous time. Finally, business equipment and services, both containing information technology components, are the most important driving forces of the industry volatility surge in the late 1990s.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.
Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 7 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf
Industry-specific volatility Granger-causality Directed acyclic graphs Contemporaneous causality;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Haigh, Michael S. & Bessler, David A., 2002.
"Causality And Price Discovery: An Application Of Directed Acyclic Graphs,"
2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri
19057, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Michael S. Haigh & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Causality and Price Discovery: An Application of Directed Acyclic Graphs," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1099-1121, October.
- Haigh, Michael S. & Bessler, David A., 2002. "Causality And Price Discovery: An Application Of Directed Acyclic Graphs," Working Papers 28588, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
- Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2008. "Forecasting foreign exchange rates using idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1322-1332, July.
- Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
- Helle Bunzel & Timothy Vogelsang, 2003.
"Powerful Trend Function Tests That are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation with an Application to the Prebisch Singer Hypothesis,"
- Bunzel, Helle & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "Powerful Trend Function Tests That Are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation, With an Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 381-394, October.
- Bunzel, Helle & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2003. "Powerful Trend Function Tests That Are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation with an Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Staff General Research Papers 10353, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Malkiel, Burton & Campbell, John & Lettau, Martin & Xu, Yexiao, 2001.
"Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk,"
3128707, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, 02.
- John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2000. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," NBER Working Papers 7590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
- Kapetanios, George, 2009. "Testing for strict stationarity in financial variables," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2346-2362, December.
- Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
- Yang, Jian & Guo, Hui & Wang, Zijun, 2006.
"International transmission of inflation among G-7 countries: A data-determined VAR analysis,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2681-2700, October.
- Jian Yang & Hui Guo & Zijun Wang, 2004. "International transmission of inflation among G-7 countries: a data-determined VAR analysis," Working Papers 2004-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Francesca Carrieri & Vihang Errunza & Sergei Sarkissian, 2004. "Industry Risk and Market Integration," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 207-221, February.
- Titus Awokuse, 2005.
"Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(14), pages 849-858.
- Titus Awokuse, 2006. "Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 593-602.
- Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, .
"Do Industries Explain Momentum?,"
CRSP working papers
352, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003.
"Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December.
- Kevin Hoover & Selva Demiralp, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Working Papers 33, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2008. "Average Idiosyncratic Volatility in�G7�Countries," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1259-1296, May.
- Wang, Zijun & Yang, Jian & Li, Qi, 2007. "Interest rate linkages in the Eurocurrency market: Contemporaneous and out-of-sample Granger causality tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 86-103, February.
- Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "Trend Function Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of Serial Correlation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 123-148, January.
- Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
- Rubin, Amir & Smith, Daniel R., 2011.
"Comparing different explanations of the volatility trend,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1581-1597, June.
- Amir Rubin & Daniel Smith, 2010. "Comparing Different Explanations of the Volatility Trend," NCER Working Paper Series 68, National Centre for Econometric Research.
- Gao, Bo & Ren, Ruo-en, 2013. "The topology of a causal network for the Chinese financial system," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(13), pages 2965-2976.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.