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On the empirics of international smoothing

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  • Asdrubali, Pierfederico
  • Kim, Soyoung

Abstract

By fully exploiting the statistical properties of panel data, this paper improves upon existing methodologies to estimate consumption smoothing at least in three respects. First, we model explicitly incomplete risksharing as well as incomplete intertemporal smoothing, and couch the two mechanisms in a unified framework. Second, we fully exploit simple panel data analysis in order to measure degrees of both risksharing and intertemporal smoothing taking place in a given set of economic regions. In particular, we are able to measure not only the smoothing of idiosyncratic shocks, but also the dependence on aggregate (non-diversifiable) shocks. Third, we distinguish neatly between the effects of temporary vs. permanent shocks. This can be done by taking advantage of the complementarity between the "within" estimator and the "between" estimator in a panel regression. We apply the above methodology to a panel of 23 OECD countries in the period from 1955 to 2005. The main finding is consistent with the puzzle of negligible international risksharing, as domestic consumption growth - once properly analyzed - does not depend on aggregate income growth. Our analysis shows that industrial countries have tended to absorb output shocks mostly through intertemporal smoothing. About 25% of all temporary shocks are smoothed this way, while a comparable fraction of permanent shocks determine consumption growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 374-381

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:3:p:374-381

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "Are Industrial-Country Consumption Risks Globally Diversified?," NBER Working Papers 4308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Michael R. Pakko, 1996. "International risk sharing and low cross-country consumption correlations: are they really inconsistent?," Working Papers 1994-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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  8. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Hsiao,Cheng, 2003. "Analysis of Panel Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521818551, November.
  11. Bean, Charles R, 1985. "The Estimation of 'Surprise' Models and the 'Surprise' Consumption Function," CEPR Discussion Papers 54, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  13. Lewis, Karen K, 1996. "What Can Explain the Apparent Lack of International Consumption Risk Sharing?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 267-97, April.
  14. Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 1998. "International Risk Sharing and European Monetary Unification," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 327, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  15. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
  16. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  18. Bent E. Sorensen & Oved Yosha, 2000. "Is risk sharing in the United States a regional phenomenon?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 33-47.
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Cited by:
  1. Becker, Sascha & Hoffmann, Mathias, 2008. "Equity Fund Ownership and the Cross-Regional Diversification of Household Risk," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2008-25, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
  2. Lane, Philip R., 1999. "Do International Investment Income Flows Smooth Income?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Soyoung Kim, 2000. "Dynamic Risk Sharing in the United States and Europe," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1621, Econometric Society.
  4. Balli, Faruk & Basher, Syed Abul & Jean Louis, Rosmy, 2011. "Channels of risk-sharing among Canadian provinces: 1961--2006," MPRA Paper 30876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Huang, Pinghsun & Zhang, Yan & Deis, Donald R. & Moffitt, Jacquelyn S., 2009. "Do artificial income smoothing and real income smoothing contribute to firm value equivalently?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 224-233, February.
  6. Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2014. "Managerial optimism and earnings smoothing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 283-303.
  7. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Soyoung Kim, 2005. "Consumption Smoothing Channels in Open Economies," International Finance 0506009, EconWPA.
  8. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Soyoung Kim, 2008. "Incomplete Intertemporal Consumption Smoothing and Incomplete Risk Sharing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1521-1531, October.
  9. Du, Julan & He, Qing & Rui, Oliver M., 2011. "Channels of Interprovincial Consumption Risk Sharing in the People’s Republic of China," ADBI Working Papers 334, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  10. Julan Du & Qing He & Oliver M. Rui, 2011. "Channels of Interprovincial Risk Sharing in China," Working Papers 122011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  11. Hiroshi Fujiki & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2007. "Financial integration in East Asia," Working Paper Series 2007-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. Li, Jia, 2012. "On the Empirics of China's Inter-regional Risk Sharing," MPRA Paper 37805, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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