Is a random walk the best exchange rate predictor?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Modelling and forecasting exchange rates with a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 233-261.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1994. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 276-290, June.
- Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-368, July.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990.
"Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
- Francis X. Diebold & James M. Nason, 1989. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015.
"The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394-394.
- Bruce Mizrach, 1996. "Forecast Comparison in L2," Departmental Working Papers 199524, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Lisi, Francesco & Schiavo, Rosa A., 1999. "A comparison between neural networks and chaotic models for exchange rate prediction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 87-102, March.
- De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
- Rodríguez-Vargas, Adolfo, 2020. "Forecasting Costa Rican inflation with machine learning methods," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
- Olmedo,E. & Velasco, F. & Valderas, J.M., 2007. "Caracterización no lineal y predicción no paramétrica en el IBEX35/Nonlinear Characterization and Predictions of IBEX 35," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 25, pages 815-842, Diciembre.
- Strozzi, Fernanda & Comenges, José-Manuel Zaldívar, 2006. "Towards a non-linear trading strategy for financial time series," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 601-615.
- Thomakos, Dimitrios D. & Wang, Tao & Wille, Luc T., 2002. "Modeling daily realized futures volatility with singular spectrum analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 312(3), pages 505-519.
- Bordignon, Silvano & Lisi, Francesco, 2001. "Predictive accuracy for chaotic economic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 51-58, January.
- Hassani, Hossein & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Gupta, Rangan & Das, Sonali, 2018.
"Predicting global temperature anomaly: A definitive investigation using an ensemble of twelve competing forecasting models,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 121-139.
- Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Sirimal Silva & Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2015. "Predicting Global Temperature Anomaly: A Definitive Investigation Using an Ensemble of Twelve Competing Forecasting Models," Working Papers 201561, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Hassani, Hossein & Rua, António & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Thomakos, Dimitrios, 2019.
"Monthly forecasting of GDP with mixed-frequency multivariate singular spectrum analysis,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1263-1272.
- António Rua & Hossein Hassani, 2019. "Monthly Forecasting of GDP with Mixed Frequency Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis," Working Papers w201913, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Cao, Liangyue & Soofi, Abdol S., 1999. "Nonlinear deterministic forecasting of daily dollar exchange rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 421-430, October.
- Kück, Mirko & Freitag, Michael, 2021. "Forecasting of customer demands for production planning by local k-nearest neighbor models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
- Nikola Gradojević & Vladimir Djaković & Goran Andjelić, 2010. "Random Walk Theory and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(3), pages 303-320, September.
- Strozzi, Fernanda & Zaldívar, José-Manuel & Zbilut, Joseph P., 2007. "Recurrence quantification analysis and state space divergence reconstruction for financial time series analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 487-499.
- Hassani, Hossein & Webster, Allan & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Heravi, Saeed, 2015. "Forecasting U.S. Tourist arrivals using optimal Singular Spectrum Analysis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 322-335.
- Papailias, Fotis & Thomakos, Dimitrios, 2017. "EXSSA: SSA-based reconstruction of time series via exponential smoothing of covariance eigenvalues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 214-229.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Barbara Rossi, 2013.
"Exchange Rate Predictability,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
- Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Working Papers 690, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange rate predictability," Economics Working Papers 1369, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 9575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000.
"Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,"
Cambridge Books,
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, January.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415.
- Preminger, Arie & Franck, Raphael, 2007.
"Forecasting exchange rates: A robust regression approach,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 71-84.
- PREMINGER, Arie & FRANCK, Raphael, 2005. "Forecasting exchange rates: a robust regression approach," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2005025, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- PREMINGER, Arie & FRANCK, Raphael, 2007. "Forecasting exchange rates: a robust regression approach," LIDAM Reprints CORE 1917, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Najand, Mohammad & Bond, Charlotte, 2000. "Structural models of exchange rate determination," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 15-27, January.
- Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Alberto Álvarez, 2002. "Predicción No-Lineal De Tipos De Cambio: Algoritmos Genéticos, Redes Neuronales Y Fusión De Datos," Working Papers 0205, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006.
"On the selection of forecasting models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
- Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2003. "On the Selection of Forecasting Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the selection of forecasting models," Working Paper Series 214, European Central Bank.
- Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
- Lisi, Francesco & Schiavo, Rosa A., 1999. "A comparison between neural networks and chaotic models for exchange rate prediction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 87-102, March.
- Ahmad Baharumshah & Venus Liew, 2006. "Forecasting Performance of Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive Exchange Rate Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 235-251, April.
- Bekiros, Stelios D., 2014.
"Exchange rates and fundamentals: Co-movement, long-run relationships and short-run dynamics,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 117-134.
- Stelios Bekiros, 2011. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Co-Movement, Long-Run Relationships and Short-run Dynamics," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/21, European University Institute.
- Jing Yang & Nikola Gradojevic, 2006. "Non-linear, non-parametric, non-fundamental exchange rate forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 227-245.
- Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada-Félix, "undated". "Nearest-Neighbour Predictions in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers 2002-05, FEDEA.
- Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 1999.
"Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: evidence from the EMS,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 383-392, October.
- Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada, "undated". "Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: Evidence from the EMS," Working Papers 98-17, FEDEA.
- Wu, Yih-Jiuan, 1998. "Exchange rate forecasting: an application of radial basis function neural networks," ISU General Staff Papers 1998010108000013540, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- de Souza Vasconcelos, Camila & Hadad Júnior, Eli, 2023. "Forecasting exchange rate: A bibliometric and content analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 607-628.
- Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Model-Free Evaluation of Directional Predictability in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
- Manish Kumar, 2010. "Modelling Exchange Rate Returns Using Non-linear Models," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 101-125, January.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013.
"Advances in Forecasting under Instability,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324,
Elsevier.
- Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Yang, Jian & Su, Xiaojing & Kolari, James W., 2008. "Do Euro exchange rates follow a martingale? Some out-of-sample evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 729-740, May.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:13:y:1997:i:2:p:255-267. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.