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Balanced-budget income taxes and aggregate stability in a small open economy

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  • Huang, Kevin X.D.
  • Meng, Qinglai
  • Xue, Jianpo

Abstract

In a closed economy, a balanced-budget fiscal policy rule with endogenous income tax rates can generate aggregate instability due to self-fulfilling expectations (e.g., Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe, 1997). This paper shows, both analytically and numerically, that beliefs-driven aggregate instability associated with such a balanced-budget rule is less of a problem in a small open economy integrated in the world asset and goods markets. This is because cross-border capital flows and endogenous international price adjustments produce income effects that reduce the likelihood of sunspot equilibria. From a policy perspective, our results relieve possible concerns that balanced-budget rules and reliance on income taxes to achieve budget objective could have destabilizing effects on the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Kevin X.D. & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2017. "Balanced-budget income taxes and aggregate stability in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 90-101.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:105:y:2017:i:c:p:90-101
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.12.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Been-Lon Chen & Yunfang Hu & Kazuo Mino, 2018. "Does Nonlinear Taxation Stabilize Small Open Economies?," KIER Working Papers 997, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Xue, Jianpo & Yip, Chong K., 2018. "Home production, balanced-budget taxation and economic (in)stability," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 231-242.
    3. Zhiming Fu & Antoine Le Riche, 2021. "Progressive consumption tax and monetary policy in an endogenous growth model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 271-293, August.
    4. David R. Stockman, 2022. "Balanced‐budget rules: Local indeterminacy and bifurcations," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 18(2), pages 109-136, June.
    5. TRANDAFIR, Adina & NEGURIȚĂ, Octav & GUNI, Claudia, 2018. "The Impact Of Deflation On Fiscal Aggregates," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 18(3), pages 81-96.
    6. Le Riche, Antoine, 2022. "Balanced-budget fiscal rules and money growth pegging," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    7. Abad, Nicolas & Venditti, Alain, 2021. "A Note On Balanced-Budget Income Taxes And Aggregate (In)Stability In Multi-Sector Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 824-843, April.
    8. Chen, Been-Lon & Hu, Yunfang & Mino, Kazuo, 2019. "Stability of a Small Open Economy under Nonlinear Income Taxation," MPRA Paper 98101, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Kevin x.d. Huang & Qinglai Meng & Jianpo Xue, 2019. "Capital Income Taxation and Aggregate Instability," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 19-00007, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    10. Micheli, Martin, 2020. "Aggregate stability under a budget rule and labor mobility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 510-519.
    11. Kuan‐jen Chen & Ching‐chong Lai & Ting‐wei Lai, 2021. "Macroeconomic instability and targeting rules for monetary policy in an endogenously growing small open economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 904-926, September.
    12. Kevin X.D. Huang & Qinglai Meng & Jianpo Xue, 2019. "Capital Income Taxation and Aggregate Instability," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 19-00007, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    13. Jang‐Ting Guo & Yan Zhang, 2022. "Macroeconomic stability under balanced‐budget rules and no‐income‐effect preferences," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 3-17, February.
    14. Chen, Been-Lon & Hu, Yunfang & Mino, Kazuo, 2020. "Income Taxation Rules and Stability of a Small Open Economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Kevin X. D. Huang & Qinglai Meng & Jianpo Xue, 2019. "Money growth targeting and indeterminacy in small open economies," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(3), pages 499-535, October.
    16. Kevin X.D. Huang & Qinglai Meng & Jianpo Xue, 2018. "Balanced‐Budget Rules and Aggregate Instability: The Role of Endogenous Capital Utilization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1669-1709, December.
    17. Zhang, Yan, 2020. "Stabilization policy and indeterminacy in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 159-167.
    18. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Budget Rules, Distortionnary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability: A reappraisal," Working Papers hal-02153856, HAL.
    19. Liutang Gong & Wei Wang, 2020. "Self‐fulfilling patience," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 336-357, December.
    20. Fabienne Lara Dascher, 2020. "Sustainable Debt Policy Rules and Growth in a Small Open Economy Model: Is a Balanced Government Budget Worthwhile?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 373-397, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Small open economy; Balanced-budget rules; Income taxes; Saddle-path stability; Self-fulfilling expectations; Indeterminacy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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