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On the role of demand and strategic uncertainty in capacity investment and disinvestment dynamics

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  • Besanko, David
  • Doraszelski, Ulrich
  • Lu, Lauren Xiaoyuan
  • Satterthwaite, Mark
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    Abstract

    Even mature industries seldom settle down into a long-run steady state. Fluctuations in demand disrupt the status quo and call for firms to adjust their capacities on an ongoing basis. We construct a fully dynamic model of an oligopolistic industry with lumpy capacity and lumpy investment/disinvestment decisions. In addition to uncertainty about the evolution of demand, a firm faces strategic uncertainty concerning the decisions of its rivals. We numerically solve the model for its Markov-perfect equilibria. For one set of parameter values, three equilibria exist, and while all of them have simple, intuitive structures, they exhibit widely varying patterns of response to demand shocks. At one extreme, one firm dominates the industry almost as a monopolist and changes its capacity to accommodate demand. At the other extreme, the larger firm keeps its capacity nearly constant while the smaller firm acts as the swing producer.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Industrial Organization.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 4 (July)
    Pages: 383-389

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:28:y:2010:i:4:p:383-389

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505551

    Related research

    Keywords: Capacity investment and disinvestment Demand uncertainty Strategic uncertainty Dynamic stochastic games Markov-perfect equilibrium;

    References

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    1. Nick Bloom & John Van Reenen & Stephen Bond, 2006. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2000. "Strategic Technology Adoptation Taking into Account Future Technological Improvements: A Real Options Approach," Discussion Paper 2000-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Andrew Wood, 2005. "Investment interdependence and the coordination of lumpy investments: evidence from the British brick industry," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 37-49.
    4. Richard J. Gilbert and Marvin Lieberman., 1987. "Investment and Coordination in Oligopolistic Industries," Economics Working Papers 8730, University of California at Berkeley.
    5. Booth, D L, et al, 1991. "An Empirical Model of Capacity Expansion and Pricing in an Oligopoly with Barometric Price Leadership: A Case Study of the Newsprint Industry in North America," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 255-76, March.
    6. Boyer, Marcel & Lasserre, Pierre & Mariotti, Thomas & Moreaux, Michel, 2004. "Preemption and rent dissipation under price competition," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 309-328, March.
    7. Ulrich Doraszelski & Mark Satterthwaite, 2010. "Computable Markov-perfect industry dynamics," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 41(2), pages 215-243.
    8. Christensen, Laurits Rolf & Caves, Richard E, 1997. "Cheap Talk and Investment Rivalry in the Pulp and Paper Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 47-73, March.
    9. Grzegorz Pawlina & Peter M. Kort, 2006. "Real Options in an Asymmetric Duopoly: Who Benefits from Your Competitive Disadvantage?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-35, 03.
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    11. Ghemawat, Pankaj, 1984. "Capacity Expansion in the Titanium Dioxide Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 145-63, December.
    12. David Besanko & Ulrich Doraszelski & Yaroslav Kryukov & Mark Satterthwaite, 2010. "Learning-by-Doing, Organizational Forgetting, and Industry Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 453-508, 03.
    13. Ghemawat, Pankaj & Nalebuff, Barry, 1990. "The Devolution of Declining Industries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 167-86, February.
    14. Cabral, Luis M. B., 2004. "Simultaneous entry and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 943-957, October.
    15. Hall, Elizabeth A., 1990. "An analysis of preemptive behavior in the titanium dioxide industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 469-484, September.
    16. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-79, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Victor Aguirregabiria & Arvind Magesan, 2012. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Games when Players' Beliefs Are Not in Equilibrium," Working Papers 2012-03, Department of Economics, University of Calgary.
    2. Friberg, Richard & Huse, Cristian, 2012. "How to use demand systems to evaluate risky projects, with an application to automobile production," MPRA Paper 48906, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Wilson, Nathan E., 2012. "Uncertain regulatory timing and market dynamics," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 102-115.
    4. Dawid, H. & Kopel, M. & Kort, P.M., 2013. "R&D competition versus R&D cooperation in oligopolistic markets with evolving structure," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 527-537.

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