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Cheap Talk and Investment Rivalry in the Pulp and Paper Industry

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  • Laurits Rolf Christensen
  • Richard E. Caves

Abstract

Determinants of the abandonment of previously announced capacity expansions are analyzed in eleven industries within the North American pulp and paper sector. Given the investor's initial confidence, extent of precommitment of resources, and post‐announcement fresh news, abandonment's likelihood increases with unanticipated projects subsequently announced by rivals. The process suggests a continual auction with the winning projects and firms having certain systematic properties. Unexpected announcements by rivals promote abandonment only in less concentrated industries; elsewhere completion is actually encouraged. Short‐run price competition is found highly sensitive to capacity utilization, and the market's geographic scope is tested.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurits Rolf Christensen & Richard E. Caves, 1997. "Cheap Talk and Investment Rivalry in the Pulp and Paper Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 47-73, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jindec:v:45:y:1997:i:1:p:47-73
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-6451.00034
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    Cited by:

    1. Kai Uwe Kühn & John Van Reenen, 2008. "Capacity Constraints and Irreversible Investments: Defending Against Collective Dominance in UPM Kymmene/Norske Skog/Haindl," CEP Reports 19, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Frank Ackerman & Kevin Gallagher, "undated". "Mixed Signals: Market Incentives, Recycling, and the Price Spike of 1995," GDAE Working Papers 01-02, GDAE, Tufts University.
    3. David Genesove & Wallace P. Mullin, 2001. "Rules, Communication, and Collusion: Narrative Evidence from the Sugar Institute Case," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 379-398, June.
    4. Bergman, Mats & Johansson, Per, 2000. "Strategic Investments in the Pulp and Paper Industry: A Count Data Regression Analysis," Umeå Economic Studies 536, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    5. Pesendorfer, Martin, 2003. "Horizontal Mergers in the Paper Industry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 34(3), pages 495-515, Autumn.
    6. Kofi Nti, 2000. "Potential competition and coordination in a market-entry game," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 71(2), pages 149-165, June.
    7. Besanko, David & Doraszelski, Ulrich & Satterthwaite, Mark & Lu, Lauren Xiaoyuan, 2008. "Lumpy Capacity Investment and Disinvestment Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 6788, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Maura P. Doyle & Christopher M. Snyder, 1999. "Information Sharing and Competition in the Motor Vehicle Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(6), pages 1326-1364, December.
    9. Arie, Guy & Markovich, Sarit & Varela, Mauricio, 2017. "On the competitive effects of multimarket contact," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 116-142.
    10. Ulrich Doraszelski & Mark Satterthwaite & Lauren Xiaoyuan Lu & David Besanko, 2009. "Lumpy Capacity Investment and Disinvestment Dynamics," 2009 Meeting Papers 106, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Pätäri, Satu & Kyläheiko, Kalevi & Sandström, Jaana, 2011. "Opening up new strategic options in the pulp and paper industry: Case biorefineries," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 456-464, July.
    12. Peltoniemi, Mirva, 2013. "Mechanisms of capability evolution in the Finnish forest industry cluster," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 190-205.
    13. Corona, Carlos & Nan, Lin, 2013. "Preannouncing competitive decisions in oligopoly markets," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 73-90.
    14. Ivaldi, Marc & Jullien, Bruno & Rey, Patrick & Seabright, Paul & Tirole, Jean, 2003. "The Economics of Tacit Collusion," IDEI Working Papers 186, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    15. David Besanko & Ulrich Doraszelski & Lauren Xiaoyuan Lu & Mark Satterthwaite, 2010. "Lumpy Capacity Investment and Disinvestment Dynamics," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(4-part-2), pages 1178-1193, August.
    16. Besanko, David & Doraszelski, Ulrich & Lu, Lauren Xiaoyuan & Satterthwaite, Mark, 2010. "On the role of demand and strategic uncertainty in capacity investment and disinvestment dynamics," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 383-389, July.
    17. Andrew Wood, 2005. "Investment interdependence and the coordination of lumpy investments: evidence from the British brick industry," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 37-49.
    18. Liran Einav & S. Ravid, 2009. "Stock market response to changes in movies’ opening dates," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 33(4), pages 311-319, November.
    19. Cooper, James C. & Wright, Joshua D., 2012. "Alcohol, antitrust, and the 21st Amendment: An empirical examination of post and hold laws," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 379-392.
    20. Guthrie, Graeme, 2020. "Investment flexibility as a barrier to entry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    21. Bergman, Mats A. & Johansson, Per & Bergman, M.A., 2002. "Large investments in the pulp and paper industry: a count data regression analysis," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 29-52.

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