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Shocks at large banks and banking sector distress: The Banking Granular Residual

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  • Blank, Sven
  • Buch, Claudia M.
  • Neugebauer, Katja

Abstract

Size matters in banking. In this paper, we explore whether shocks originating at large banks affect the probability of distress of smaller banks and thus the stability of the banking system. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. In a first step, we follow Gabaix [Gabaix, X., 2008a. The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1111765] and construct a measure of idiosyncratic shocks at large banks, the so-called Banking Granular Residual. This measure documents the importance of size effects for the German banking system. In a second step, we incorporate this measure of idiosyncratic shocks at large banks into an integrated stress-testing model for the German banking system following De Graeve et al. (2008). We find that positive shocks at large banks reduce the probability of distress of small banks.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Stability.

Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 353-373

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:5:y:2009:i:4:p:353-373

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil

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Keywords: Banking distress Size effects Shock propagation Granular Residual;

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  1. Pushkin, Dmitri O & Aref, Hassan, 2004. "Bank mergers as scale-free coagulation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 336(3), pages 571-584.
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  3. Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Power Laws in Economics and Finance," NBER Working Papers 14299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
  5. Kick, Thomas & Koetter, Michael, 2007. "Slippery slopes of stress: Ordered failure events in German banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 132-148, July.
  6. J.A. Bikker & K. Haaf, 2001. "Competition, Concentration and their Relationship: an EmpiricalAnalysis of the Banking Industry," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 68, Netherlands Central Bank.
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  13. Xavier Gabaix, 2005. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," 2005 Meeting Papers 470, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
  15. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
  16. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique, 1997. "Rational Herd Behavior and the Globalization of Securities Markets," Working Papers 97-26, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  17. Benston, George J, 1972. "Economies of Scale of Financial Institutions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 312-41, May.
  18. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. repec:diw:diwfin:diwfin02030 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Franziska Bremus & Claudia Buch & Katheryn Russ & Monika Schnitzer, 2013. "Big Banks and Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence of Granularity," NBER Working Papers 19093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. repec:diw:diwfin:diwfin is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 15286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. del Rosal, Ignacio, 2013. "The granular hypothesis in EU country exports," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 433-436.
  6. Francisco Vazquez & Benjamin M. Tabak & Marcos Souto, 2010. "A Macro Stress Test Model of Credit Risk for the Brazilian Banking Sector," Working Papers Series 226, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Franziska Bremus & Claudia M. Buch, 2013. "Granularity in Banking and Growth: Does Financial Openness Matter?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1346, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Blank, Sven & Dovern, Jonas, 2009. "What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system? Analysis in an integrated micro-macro model," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2009,15, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Buch, Claudia M. & Neugebauer, Katja, 2011. "Bank-specific shocks and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2179-2187, August.

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