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Shocks at large banks and banking sector distress: The Banking Granular Residual

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  • Blank, Sven
  • Buch, Claudia M.
  • Neugebauer, Katja

Abstract

Size matters in banking. In this paper, we explore whether shocks originating at large banks affect the probability of distress of smaller banks and thus the stability of the banking system. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. In a first step, we follow Gabaix [Gabaix, X., 2008a. The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1111765] and construct a measure of idiosyncratic shocks at large banks, the so-called Banking Granular Residual. This measure documents the importance of size effects for the German banking system. In a second step, we incorporate this measure of idiosyncratic shocks at large banks into an integrated stress-testing model for the German banking system following De Graeve et al. (2008). We find that positive shocks at large banks reduce the probability of distress of small banks.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Stability.

Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 353-373

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:5:y:2009:i:4:p:353-373

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil

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Keywords: Banking distress Size effects Shock propagation Granular Residual;

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  1. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  7. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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  17. T. Todd Smith & Garry J. Schinasi, 1999. "Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/136, International Monetary Fund.
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  21. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 15286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Christian Dreger & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009. "Drivers of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Selected CIS Countries: Evidence from a FAVAR Analysis," Working Paper / FINESS 5.6, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Buch, Claudia M. & Neugebauer, Katja, 2011. "Bank-specific shocks and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2179-2187, August.
  4. Blank, Sven & Dovern, Jonas, 2009. "What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system? Analysis in an integrated micro-macro model," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2009,15, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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