IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v55y2023ipas1544612323002799.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary policy and uncertainty resolution in commodity markets

Author

Listed:
  • Gu, Chen
  • Kurov, Alexander
  • Stan, Raluca

Abstract

This paper examines the intraday changes of gold and crude oil implied volatility around the release of FOMC statements. We find that monetary policy releases lead to intraday uncertainty resolution in these commodity markets. The resolution of uncertainty is stronger after announcements accompanied by releases of the Summary of Economic Projections. We also show that monetary policy announcements contain information about future commodity demand and supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Gu, Chen & Kurov, Alexander & Stan, Raluca, 2023. "Monetary policy and uncertainty resolution in commodity markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:55:y:2023:i:pa:s1544612323002799
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.103907
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323002799
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2023.103907?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    2. Boguth, Oliver & Grégoire, Vincent & Martineau, Charles, 2019. "Shaping Expectations and Coordinating Attention: The Unintended Consequences of FOMC Press Conferences," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(6), pages 2327-2353, December.
    3. Arabinda Basistha & Alexander Kurov, 2015. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Energy Prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 87-103, January.
    4. Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long‐term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 447-466, November.
    5. Alexander Kurov & Chen Gu, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Stock Prices: Does the “Fed Put” Work When It Is Most Needed?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(12), pages 1210-1230, December.
    6. George J. Jiang & Guanzhong Pan, 2022. "Speculation or hedging?—Options trading prior to FOMC announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 212-230, February.
    7. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    8. Chen, En-Te (John) & Clements, Adam, 2007. "S&P 500 implied volatility and monetary policy announcements," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 227-232, December.
    9. George A. Kahn & Andrew Palmer, 2016. "Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-37.
    10. Ng, Victor K & Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1994. "Fundamentals and Volatility: Storage, Spreads, and the Dynamics of Metals Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 203-230, April.
    11. Dean Scrimgeour, 2015. "Commodity Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 88-102.
    12. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Frijns, Bart & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2017. "When no news is good news – The decrease in investor fear after the FOMC announcement," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 187-199.
    13. Rosa, Carlo, 2014. "The high-frequency response of energy prices to U.S. monetary policy: Understanding the empirical evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 295-303.
    14. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Tully, Edel & Lucey, Brian M., 2007. "A power GARCH examination of the gold market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 316-325, June.
    16. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2012. "The effects of Federal funds rate surprises on S&P 500 volatility and volatility risk premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 497-510.
    17. Carl Chiarella & Boda Kang & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Thuy‐Duong Tô, 2016. "The Return–Volatility Relation in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 127-152, February.
    18. Robert C Ready, 2018. "Oil Prices and the Stock Market [The vix, the variance premium and stock market volatility]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 155-176.
    19. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 523-543, December.
    20. Gu, Chen & Chen, Denghui & Stan, Raluca, 2022. "Resolution of financial market uncertainty around the release of unemployment rate announcements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 586-596.
    21. Kurov, Alexander & Stan, Raluca, 2018. "Monetary policy uncertainty and the market reaction to macroeconomic news," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 127-142.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Smales, L.A., 2021. "Macroeconomic news and treasury futures return volatility: Do treasury auctions matter?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    2. Smales, L.A. & Lucey, B.M., 2019. "The influence of investor sentiment on the monetary policy announcement liquidity response in precious metal markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 19-38.
    3. Rosa, Carlo, 2014. "The high-frequency response of energy prices to U.S. monetary policy: Understanding the empirical evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 295-303.
    4. Tarek Chebbi, 2021. "The response of precious metal futures markets to unconventional monetary surprises in the presence of uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1897-1916, April.
    5. Gu, Chen & Kurov, Alexander & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2018. "Relief Rallies after FOMC Announcements as a Resolution of Uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-18.
    6. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Frijns, Bart & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2017. "When no news is good news – The decrease in investor fear after the FOMC announcement," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 187-199.
    7. Jang, Hyeonung & Seo, Byoung Ki, 2020. "Monetary policy rate expectation and energy prices during the FOMC announcement period," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    8. Kurov, Alexander & Stan, Raluca, 2018. "Monetary policy uncertainty and the market reaction to macroeconomic news," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 127-142.
    9. Kam F. Chan & Philip Gray, 2018. "Volatility jumps and macroeconomic news announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(8), pages 881-897, August.
    10. Kam Fong Chan & Philip Gray, 2017. "Do Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements Influence Energy Price Jumps?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 71-89, January.
    11. Smales, L.A., 2019. "Slopes, spreads, and depth: Monetary policy announcements and liquidity provision in the energy futures market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 234-252.
    12. Hip lit Torr, 2019. "The Response of European Energy Prices to ECB Monetary Policy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 1-9.
    13. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Identification and Inference Using Event Studies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 48-65, September.
    14. Soriano, Pilar & Torró, Hipòlit, 2022. "The response of Brent crude oil to the European central bank monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    15. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2022. "Exploring the transmission mechanism of speculative and inventory arbitrage activity to commodity price volatility. Novel evidence for the US economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Ma, Chaoqun & Tian, Yonggang & Hsiao, Shisong & Deng, Liurui, 2022. "Monetary policy shocks and Bitcoin prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Nominal Interest Rates and the News," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 295-332, March.
    18. Unalmis, Deren & Unalmis, Ibrahim, 2015. "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Surprises on Asset Markets in the United States," MPRA Paper 62585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Lutz, Chandler, 2015. "The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 89-105.
    20. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:55:y:2023:i:pa:s1544612323002799. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.