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Resolution of financial market uncertainty around the release of unemployment rate announcements

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  • Gu, Chen
  • Chen, Denghui
  • Stan, Raluca

Abstract

We provide evidence that the release of the unemployment rate announcement unconditionally leads to financial market uncertainty resolution in the stock, treasury, commodity, and foreign currency markets. The finding is economically valuable. A simple daily strategy of selling the 10-year Treasury Note Volatility Index futures before the unemployment rate announcement and closing the position after the announcement generates an annualized Sharpe ratio of 3.79, while a similar intraday strategy using VIX futures generates an annualized Sharpe ratio of 3.98. Although this resolution is not conditional of the value of the unemployment rate surprise, we also find that larger (lower) than expected unemployment can weaken (strengthen) the uncertainty resolution process.

Suggested Citation

  • Gu, Chen & Chen, Denghui & Stan, Raluca, 2022. "Resolution of financial market uncertainty around the release of unemployment rate announcements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 586-596.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:80:y:2022:i:c:p:586-596
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.077
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    Cited by:

    1. Ding, Xiaoli & Cheng, Sang & Qin, Wenjing & Gu, Xin, 2023. "Does uncertainty affect graduates’ decision to relocate for work? Evidence at China’s city level," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 10-19.
    2. Gu, Chen & Kurov, Alexander & Stan, Raluca, 2023. "Monetary policy and uncertainty resolution in commodity markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).

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