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Dynamic efficiency and arbitrage potential in Bitcoin: A long-memory approach

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  • Duan, Kun
  • Li, Zeming
  • Urquhart, Andrew
  • Ye, Jinqiang

Abstract

Employing a long-memory approach, we provide a study of the evolution of informational efficiency in five major Bitcoin markets and its influence on cross-market arbitrage. While all the markets are close to full informational efficiency over the whole sample period, the degree of market efficiency varies across markets and over time. The cross-market discrepancy in market efficiency gradually vanishes, suggesting the segmented markets are developing to a consensus where all markets are equally efficient. Through a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model we show that when the efficiency in Bitcoin/USD and Bitcoin/AUD markets improves the cross-market arbitrage potential narrows, whereas it widens when the efficiency in Bitcoin/CAD, Bitcoin/EUR, and Bitcoin/GBP markets improves. A battery of robustness checks reassure our main findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Duan, Kun & Li, Zeming & Urquhart, Andrew & Ye, Jinqiang, 2021. "Dynamic efficiency and arbitrage potential in Bitcoin: A long-memory approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:75:y:2021:i:c:s1057521921000685
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101725
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Market efficiency; Cryptocurrency; Long memory; FCVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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