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How does house price influence monetary policy transmission?

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  • Guo, Yumei
  • Huang, Xianjing
  • Peng, Yuchao

Abstract

The literature has focused on house price growth to explain the inefficiency of monetary policy. From the perspective of substitution, this paper explains the relationship between house prices and monetary policy considering not only house price growth but also house price uncertainty. By constructing a theoretical model including both financial-asset and fixed-asset investment, we find that expansionary monetary policy not only promotes total investment but simultaneously also leads to substitution towards financial assets. However, a rise in house price growth or house price uncertainty will mitigate the substitution effect generated by monetary policy. These propositions are supported by empirical data on China's nonfinancial listed firms from 2009 Q1 to 2018 Q3 and the results are robust to a variety of model specifications and empirical approaches. Our findings imply that real estate regulatory policy should coordinate with monetary policy in maximizing fixed-asset investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Yumei & Huang, Xianjing & Peng, Yuchao, 2020. "How does house price influence monetary policy transmission?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:72:y:2020:i:c:s1057521920302398
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101595
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; House price; Asset substitution; Investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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