IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v49y2017icp35-47.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Information content of analyst recommendations in the banking industry

Author

Listed:
  • Premti, Arjan
  • Garcia-Feijoo, Luis
  • Madura, Jeff

Abstract

We investigate whether analyst recommendations about banks become more valuable in periods when the information environment for banks is more uncertain. The degree of uncertainty in the information environment for banks is time-varying because of time-varying changes in information asymmetry for banks and in bank regulations. Based on a sample of 23,632 analyst recommendations of 1106 banks, we find that analyst recommendations are more informative for banks that are riskier and subject to a higher degree of information asymmetry. Furthermore, regulations that reduce the information asymmetry (Sarbanes-Oxley Act) or the risk (Dodd-Frank Act) of the banking industry also reduce the information content of analyst recommendations, while regulations that increase the risk of the banking industry (Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act) increase the information content of analyst recommendations. Our results suggest the role of an analyst is more valuable when the information environment is more uncertain.

Suggested Citation

  • Premti, Arjan & Garcia-Feijoo, Luis & Madura, Jeff, 2017. "Information content of analyst recommendations in the banking industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 35-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:35-47
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.11.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521916301806
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.11.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frédéric Sonney, 2009. "Financial Analysts' Performance: Sector Versus Country Specialization," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 2087-2131, May.
    2. Warren Bailey & Haitao Li & Connie X. Mao & Rui Zhong, 2003. "Regulation Fair Disclosure and Earnings Information: Market, Analyst, and Corporate Responses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2487-2514, December.
    3. Nejadmalayeri, Ali & Nishikawa, Takeshi & Rao, Ramesh P., 2013. "Sarbanes-Oxley Act and corporate credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2991-3006.
    4. Womack, Kent L, 1996. "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
    5. Brad M. Barber & Reuven Lehavy & Brett Trueman, 2010. "Ratings Changes, Ratings Levels, and the Predictive Value of Analysts’ Recommendations," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(2), pages 533-553, June.
    6. Hirtle, Beverly, 2006. "Stock Market Reaction to Financial Statement Certification by Bank Holding Company CEOs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1263-1291, August.
    7. Flannery, Mark J. & Kwan, Simon H. & Nimalendran, Mahendrarajah, 2013. "The 2007–2009 financial crisis and bank opaqueness," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 55-84.
    8. Yung-Ho Chang & Chia-Chung Chan, 2008. "Financial analysts' stock recommendation revisions and stock price changes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 309-325.
    9. Astrid A. Dick, 2006. "Nationwide Branching and Its Impact on Market Structure, Quality, and Bank Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 567-592, March.
    10. George S. Oldfield & Anthony M. Santomero, 1997. "The Place of Risk Management in Financial Institutions," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 95-05, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    11. Kee, H. Chung & McInish, Thomas H. & Wood, Robert A. & Wyhowski, Donald J., 1995. "Production of information, information asymmetry, and the bid-ask spread: Empirical evidence from analysts' forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1025-1046, September.
    12. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2000. "A Theory of Bank Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2431-2465, December.
    13. Christine X. Jiang & Jang‐Chul Kim, 2005. "Trading Costs Of Non‐U.S. Stocks On The New York Stock Exchange: The Effect Of Institutional Ownership, Analyst Following, And Market Regulation," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 28(3), pages 439-459, September.
    14. McConnell, John J. & Servaes, Henri, 1990. "Additional evidence on equity ownership and corporate value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 595-612, October.
    15. DeYoung, Robert & Roland, Karin P., 2001. "Product Mix and Earnings Volatility at Commercial Banks: Evidence from a Degree of Total Leverage Model," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 54-84, January.
    16. Bae, Kee-Hong & Stulz, René M. & Tan, Hongping, 2008. "Do local analysts know more? A cross-country study of the performance of local analysts and foreign analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 581-606, June.
    17. Roger K. Loh & René M. Stulz, 2011. "When Are Analyst Recommendation Changes Influential?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(2), pages 593-627.
    18. Akhigbe, Aigbe & Martin, Anna D., 2006. "Valuation impact of Sarbanes-Oxley: Evidence from disclosure and governance within the financial services industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 989-1006, March.
    19. Sorescu, Sorin & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2006. "The Cross Section of Analyst Recommendations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 139-168, March.
    20. Samu Peura & Jussi Keppo, 2006. "Optimal Bank Capital with Costly Recapitalization," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 2163-2202, July.
    21. Christina E. Bannier & Patrick Behr & Andre Güttler, 2010. "Rating opaque borrowers: why are unsolicited ratings lower?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 263-294.
    22. Donald P. Morgan & Stavros Peristiani & Vanessa Savino, 2014. "The Information Value of the Stress Test," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1479-1500, October.
    23. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    24. Li Xu & Alex Tang, 2012. "Internal control material weakness, analysts’ accuracy and bias, and brokerage reputation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 27-53, July.
    25. Cornett, Marcia Millon & Fayman, Alex & Marcus, Alan J. & Tehranian, Hassan, 2011. "Dividends, maturity, and acquisitions: Evidence from a sample of bank IPOs," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 11-21, January.
    26. Ohad Kadan & Leonardo Madureira & Rong Wang & Tzachi Zach, 2009. "Conflicts of Interest and Stock Recommendations: The Effects of the Global Settlement and Related Regulations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4189-4217, October.
    27. Victoria Geyfman & Timothy J. Yeager, 2009. "On the Riskiness of Universal Banking: Evidence from Banks in the Investment Banking Business Pre- and Post-GLBA," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1649-1669, December.
    28. Scott Findlay & Prem G. Mathew, 2006. "An Examination of the Differential Impact of Regulation FD on Analysts' Forecast Accuracy," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 9-31, February.
    29. Gintschel, Andreas & Markov, Stanimir, 2004. "The effectiveness of Regulation FD," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 293-314, September.
    30. Seung-Woog Kwag & Kenneth Small, 2007. "The impact of regulation fair disclosure on earnings management and analyst forecast bias," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 87-98, March.
    31. Lie, Erik, 2000. "Excess Funds and Agency Problems: An Empirical Study of Incremental Cash Disbursements," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 219-247.
    32. Allen N. Berger & Christa H. S. Bouwman, 2009. "Bank Liquidity Creation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3779-3837, September.
    33. Jiraporn, Pornsit & Chintrakarn, Pandej & Kim, Young S., 2012. "Analyst following, staggered boards, and managerial entrenchment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3091-3100.
    34. Francis, J & Soffer, L, 1997. "The relative informativeness of analysts' stock recommendations and earnings forecast revisions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 193-211.
    35. Ranjan D'Mello & Stephen Ferris, 2000. "The Information Effects of Analyst Activity as the Announcement of New Equity Issues," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 29(1), Spring.
    36. Bradley, Daniel & Clarke, Jonathan & Cooney, John, 2012. "The impact of reputation on analysts’ conflicts of interest: Hot versus cold markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2190-2202.
    37. Lys, Thomas & Sohn, Sungkyu, 1990. "The association between revisions of financial analysts' earnings forecasts and security-price changes," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 341-363, December.
    38. Mr. Gianni De Nicolo & Mr. Myron L. Kwast, 2002. "Systemic Risk and Financial Consolidation: Are they Related?," IMF Working Papers 2002/055, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Polonchek, John & Slovin, Myron B. & Sushka, Marie E., 1989. "Valuation effects of commercial bank securities offerings : A test of the information hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 443-461, July.
    40. Jones, Jeffrey S. & Lee, Wayne Y. & Yeager, Timothy J., 2013. "Valuation and systemic risk consequences of bank opacity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 693-706.
    41. Mark H. Lang & Karl V. Lins & Darius P. Miller, 2004. "Concentrated Control, Analyst Following, and Valuation: Do Analysts Matter Most When Investors Are Protected Least?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 589-623, June.
    42. Sudheer Chava & Praveen Kumar & Arthur Warga, 2010. "Managerial Agency and Bond Covenants," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(3), pages 1120-1148, March.
    43. Thabang Mokoaleli-Mokoteli & Richard J. Taffler & Vineet Agarwal, 2009. "Behavioural Bias and Conflicts of Interest in Analyst Stock Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3-4), pages 384-418.
    44. Delbert Goff & Heather Hulburt & Terrill Keasler & Joe Walsh, 2008. "Isolating the Information Content of Equity Analysts' Recommendation Changes, Post Reg FD," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 303-321, May.
    45. Akhigbe, Aigbe & McNulty, James E. & Stevenson, Bradley A., 2013. "How does transparency affect bank financial performance?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 24-30.
    46. John A. Doukas & Chansog (Francis) Kim & Christos Pantzalis, 2005. "The Two Faces of Analyst Coverage," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 34(2), Summer.
    47. Mikhail, Michael B. & Walther, Beverly R. & Willis, Richard H., 2004. "Do security analysts exhibit persistent differences in stock picking ability?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 67-91, October.
    48. Moshirian, Fariborz & Ng, David & Wu, Eliza, 2009. "The value of stock analysts' recommendations: Evidence from emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 74-83, March.
    49. Boni, Leslie & Womack, Kent L., 2006. "Analysts, Industries, and Price Momentum," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 85-109, March.
    50. Jones, Jeffrey S. & Lee, Wayne Y. & Yeager, Timothy J., 2012. "Opaque banks, price discovery, and financial instability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 383-408.
    51. Givoly, Dan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1979. "The information content of financial analysts' forecasts of earnings: Some evidence on semi-strong inefficiency," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 165-185, December.
    52. Calomiris, Charles W., 1999. "Gauging the efficiency of bank consolidation during a merger wave," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2-4), pages 615-621, February.
    53. Thabang Mokoaleli‐Mokoteli & Richard J. Taffler & Vineet Agarwal, 2009. "Behavioural Bias and Conflicts of Interest in Analyst Stock Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3‐4), pages 384-418, April.
    54. Volkan Muslu & Yanfeng Xue, 2013. "Analysts’ Momentum Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3-4), pages 438-469, April.
    55. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Joonghyuk Kim & Susan D. Krische & Charles M. C. Lee, 2004. "Analyzing the Analysts: When Do Recommendations Add Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1083-1124, June.
    56. De Nicolo, Gianni & Kwast, Myron L., 2002. "Systemic risk and financial consolidation: Are they related?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 861-880, May.
    57. Chung, Kee H. & Jo, Hoje, 1996. "The Impact of Security Analysts' Monitoring and Marketing Functions on the Market Value of Firms," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 493-512, December.
    58. Brennan, Michael J. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1995. "Investment analysis and price formation in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 361-381, July.
    59. Christopher J. Malloy, 2005. "The Geography of Equity Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 719-755, April.
    60. Akhigbe, Aigbe & Whyte, Ann Marie, 2003. "Changes in market assessments of bank risk following the Riegle-Neal Act of 1994," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 87-102, January.
    61. Giuliano Iannotta, 2006. "Testing for Opaqueness in the European Banking Industry: Evidence from Bond Credit Ratings," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 287-309, December.
    62. Richard Cebula, 2010. "Bank Failures in Light of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 38(4), pages 455-456, December.
    63. Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yongtao Hong & Fariz Huseynov & Sabuhi Sardarli & Wei Zhang, 2020. "Bank earnings management and analyst coverage: evidence from loan loss provisions," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 29-54, July.
    2. Premti, Arjan & Smith, Garrett, 2020. "Earnings management in the pre-IPO process: Biases and predictors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Nikbakht, Ehsan & Sarkar, Sayan & Smith, Garrett C. & Spieler, Andrew C., 2021. "Pre-IPO earnings management: Evidence from India," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    4. Wei, Lu & Miao, Xiyuan & Jing, Haozhe & Liu, Zhidong & Xie, Zezhong, 2023. "Bank risk aggregation based on the triple perspectives of bank managers, credit raters, and financial analysts," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    5. Jaideep Singh & Matloob Khushi, 2021. "Feature Learning for Stock Price Prediction Shows a Significant Role of Analyst Rating," Papers 2103.09106, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    2. Oya Altınkılıç & Vadim S. Balashov & Robert S. Hansen, 2013. "Are Analysts' Forecasts Informative to the General Public?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2550-2565, November.
    3. Ryan Flugum, 2021. "The trend is an analyst's friend: Analyst recommendations and market technicals," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 301-330, May.
    4. Benoît D'Udekem, 2014. "Bank Cash Holdings and Investor Uncertainty," Working Papers CEB 14-002, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Ruei-Shian Wu & Hsiou-wei W. Lin, 2014. "Security analysts' incentive and cognitive processing bias: evidence from analysts' recommendations," Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 443-471, December.
    6. Lily Fang & Ayako Yasuda, 2014. "Are Stars’ Opinions Worth More? The Relation Between Analyst Reputation and Recommendation Values," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 235-269, December.
    7. AltInkIlIç, Oya & Hansen, Robert S., 2009. "On the information role of stock recommendation revisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 17-36, October.
    8. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2018. "Holiday effect on stock price reactions to analyst recommendation revisions," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(7), pages 507-521, December.
    9. Ambrus Kecskés & Roni Michaely & Kent L. Womack, 2017. "Do Earnings Estimates Add Value to Sell-Side Analysts’ Investment Recommendations?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1855-1871, June.
    10. Savor, Pavel G., 2012. "Stock returns after major price shocks: The impact of information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 635-659.
    11. Jagjeev Dosanjh, 2017. "Exchange Initiatives and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Australian Securities Exchange," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2017.
    12. Li, Fengfei & Lin, Chen & Lin, Tse-Chun, 2021. "Salient anchor and analyst recommendation downgrade," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Bertsatos, Georgios & Sakellaris, Plutarchos & Tsionas, Mike G., 2017. "Did the financial crisis affect the market valuation of large systemic U.S. banks?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 115-123.
    14. repec:uts:finphd:34 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Flannery, Mark J. & Kwan, Simon H. & Nimalendran, Mahendrarajah, 2013. "The 2007–2009 financial crisis and bank opaqueness," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 55-84.
    16. Premti, Arjan & Jafarinejad, Mohammad & Balani, Henry, 2021. "The impact of the Fourth Anti-Money Laundering Directive on the valuation of EU banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    17. Dambra, Michael & Field, Laura Casares & Gustafson, Matthew T. & Pisciotta, Kevin, 2018. "The consequences to analyst involvement in the IPO process: Evidence surrounding the JOBS Act," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 302-330.
    18. Thabang Mokoaleli-Mokoteli & Richard J. Taffler & Vineet Agarwal, 2009. "Behavioural Bias and Conflicts of Interest in Analyst Stock Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3-4), pages 384-418.
    19. Li, Hui & Liu, Hong & Siganos, Antonios & Zhou, Mingming, 2016. "Bank regulation, financial crisis, and the announcement effects of seasoned equity offerings of US commercial banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 37-46.
    20. Lin, Mei-Chen, 2023. "Analyst coverage and the idiosyncratic skewness effect in the Taiwan stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    21. Serkan Karadas & Jorida Papakroni, 2019. "Local predictive ability of analyst recommendations," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 351-371, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Analyst recommendations; Banking; Information asymmetry; Bank risk; Bank complexity; Bank regulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:35-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.