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Fuzzy logic home energy consumption modeling for residential photovoltaic plant sizing in the new Italian scenario

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  • Ciabattoni, Lucio
  • Grisostomi, Massimo
  • Ippoliti, Gianluca
  • Longhi, Sauro

Abstract

In recent years, Italy has seen a rapid growth in the PV (photovoltaic) sector, following the introduction of the FIT (feed in tariff) scheme known as Conto Energia. In July 2013 the Italian government definitively cut FITs, leaving only tax benefits and a revised net metering scheme (known as “Scambio sul Posto”) for new PV installations. In this scenario, the design of a new PV plant ensuring savings on electricity bills is strongly related to household electricity consumption patterns. This paper presents a high-resolution model of domestic electricity use. The model is based on Fuzzy Logic Inference System. Using as inputs patterns of active occupancy and typical domestic habits, the fuzzy model give as output the likelihood to start each appliance within the next minute. The model has been validated with electricity demand data recorded over the period of one year within 12 dwellings in the central east coast of Italy. The tool has been used to evaluate the self consumption percentage to correctly size a residential photovoltaic plant in a case study. A cost benefits analysis is presented to show the effectiveness of PV-generation in the new Italian scenario.

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  • Ciabattoni, Lucio & Grisostomi, Massimo & Ippoliti, Gianluca & Longhi, Sauro, 2014. "Fuzzy logic home energy consumption modeling for residential photovoltaic plant sizing in the new Italian scenario," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 359-367.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:74:y:2014:i:c:p:359-367
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.06.100
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    2. Andreolli, Francesca & D'Alpaos, Chiara & Kort, Peter, 2023. "Does P2P Trading Favor Investments in PV-Battery Systems?," FEEM Working Papers 330498, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
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    7. Bertolini, Marina & D'Alpaos, Chiara & Moretto, Michele, 2018. "Do Smart Grids boost investments in domestic PV plants? Evidence from the Italian electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 890-902.
    8. Ronggang Zhang & Sathishkumar V E & R. Dinesh Jackson Samuel, 2020. "Fuzzy Efficient Energy Smart Home Management System for Renewable Energy Resources," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-14, April.
    9. Vincenzo Franzitta & Domenico Curto & Daniele Milone & Davide Rao, 2016. "Assessment of Renewable Sources for the Energy Consumption in Malta in the Mediterranean Sea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-17, December.
    10. Hamid R. Khosravani & María Del Mar Castilla & Manuel Berenguel & Antonio E. Ruano & Pedro M. Ferreira, 2016. "A Comparison of Energy Consumption Prediction Models Based on Neural Networks of a Bioclimatic Building," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, January.
    11. Bhowmik, Chiranjib & Bhowmik, Sumit & Ray, Amitava & Pandey, Krishna Murari, 2017. "Optimal green energy planning for sustainable development: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 796-813.
    12. Biondi, Tommaso & Moretto, Michele, 2015. "Solar Grid Parity dynamics in Italy: A real option approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 293-302.
    13. Castellini, Marta & Menoncin, Francesco & Moretto, Michele & Vergalli, Sergio, 2021. "Photovoltaic Smart Grids in the prosumers investment decisions: a real option model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    14. Francesca Andreolli & Chiara D'Alpaos & Peter Kort, 2023. "Does P2P Trading Favor Investments in PV-Battery Systems?," Working Papers 2023.02, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    15. Luis Hernández-Callejo, 2019. "A Comprehensive Review of Operation and Control, Maintenance and Lifespan Management, Grid Planning and Design, and Metering in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-50, April.
    16. Chiara D'Alpaos & Marina Bertolini & Michele Moretto, 2016. "Do Smart Grids Boost Investment in Photovoltaics? The Prosumer Investment Decision," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0203, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    17. Andreolli, Francesca & D’Alpaos, Chiara & Moretto, Michele, 2022. "Valuing investments in domestic PV-Battery Systems under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    18. Cengiz Kahraman & Sezi Cevik Onar & Basar Oztaysi, 2016. "A Comparison of Wind Energy Investment Alternatives Using Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Benefit/Cost Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-18, January.

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