IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v254y2022ipbs0360544222012014.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploding DUCs? Identifying periods of mild explosivity in the time series behavior of drilled but uncompleted wells

Author

Listed:
  • Pastor, Daniel J.
  • Ewing, Bradley T.

Abstract

Recent attention has turned to drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) that exploration and production (E&P) companies may manage in order to address market uncertainties. DUCs act as potential supply that bridges the gap when supply and demand are unequal and can play a key role in the operations strategies of producers. This study provides evidence of mildly explosive behavior in the time series of DUCs by applying the Right-Tailed Augmented Dickey Fuller test of Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015) (PSY). The PSY method tests for mildly explosive behavior of a time series defined by when the volume of DUCs move beyond what would be expected given the fundamental market conditions. The sample spans from December 2013 until May 2020 and includes the major oil producing regions of the United States. The analysis date stamps periods of mild explosivity and matches surges in DUCs with major contemporaneous events including the June 2014 precipitous drop in oil price, midstream bottlenecks and resource constraints, as well as the COVID-related fall in demand for oil. The findings are discussed in the context of exploration and production firms and the use of DUCs as a tool for understanding value and optimization of production over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Pastor, Daniel J. & Ewing, Bradley T., 2022. "Exploding DUCs? Identifying periods of mild explosivity in the time series behavior of drilled but uncompleted wells," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:254:y:2022:i:pb:s0360544222012014
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.124298
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222012014
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124298?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1043-1078, November.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    3. Kalu, Timothy Ch. U., 1999. "Capital budgeting under uncertainty: An extended goal programming approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 235-251, January.
    4. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Miller, Richard & Thompson, Erica, 2012. "Shaping the global oil peak: A review of the evidence on field sizes, reserve growth, decline rates and depletion rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 709-724.
    5. Apergis, Nicholas & Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E., 2016. "Oil reserve life and the influence of crude oil prices: An analysis of Texas reserves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 266-271.
    6. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    7. Kaiser, Mark J., 2010. "Economic limit of field production in Louisiana," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3399-3416.
    8. Ewing, Bradley T. & Thompson, Mark A., 2016. "The role of reserves and production in the market capitalization of oil and gas companies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 576-581.
    9. Kräussl, Roman & Lehnert, Thorsten & Martelin, Nicolas, 2016. "Is there a bubble in the art market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 99-109.
    10. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    11. Gronwald, Marc, 2016. "Explosive oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-5.
    12. Apergis, Nicholas & Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E., 2016. "A time series analysis of oil production, rig count and crude oil price: Evidence from six U.S. oil producing regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 339-349.
    13. Caspi, Itamar & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Date stamping historical periods of oil price explosivity: 1876–2014," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 582-587.
    14. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    15. Douglas Mugabe, Levan Elbakidze, and Tim Carr, 2021. "All the DUCs in a Row: Natural Gas Production in U.S," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 113-132.
    16. Kaiser, Mark J. & Yu, Yunke, 2010. "Economic limit of field production in Texas," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(10), pages 3235-3254, October.
    17. Pickering, Andrew, 2008. "The oil reserves production relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 352-370, March.
    18. Loomis, John & Haefele, Michelle, 2017. "Quantifying Market and Non-market Benefits and Costs of Hydraulic Fracturing in the United States: A Summary of the Literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 160-167.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. AL-Alimi, Dalal & AlRassas, Ayman Mutahar & Al-qaness, Mohammed A.A. & Cai, Zhihua & Aseeri, Ahmad O. & Abd Elaziz, Mohamed & Ewees, Ahmed A., 2023. "TLIA: Time-series forecasting model using long short-term memory integrated with artificial neural networks for volatile energy markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Zuyi & Kim, Man-Keun, 2022. "Price bubbles in oil & gas markets and their transfer," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Apergis, Nicholas & Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E., 2021. "The asymmetric relationship of oil prices and production on drilling rig trajectory," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Haykir, Ozkan & Yagli, Ibrahim & Aktekin Gok, Emine Dilara & Budak, Hilal, 2022. "Oil price explosivity and stock return: Do sector and firm size matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Pastor, Daniel J. & Ewing, Bradley T., 2022. "Is there evidence of mild explosive behavior in Alaska North Slope crude oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    5. Yang Hu, 2023. "A review of Phillips‐type right‐tailed unit root bubble detection tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 141-158, February.
    6. Akcora, Begum & Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge, 2023. "Price bubbles in the European natural gas market between 2011 and 2020," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick & Paraskevopoulos, Ioannis, 2020. "Mild explosivity in recent crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    8. Oladosu, Gbadebo, 2022. "Bubbles in US gasoline prices: Assessing the role of hurricanes and anti–price gouging laws," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    9. Kruse, Robinson & Wegener, Christoph, 2020. "Time-varying persistence in real oil prices and its determinant," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Kassouri, Yacouba, 2022. "Boom-bust cycles in oil consumption: The role of explosive bubbles and asymmetric adjustments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    11. Zhao, Zhao & Wen, Huwei & Li, Ke, 2021. "Identifying bubbles and the contagion effect between oil and stock markets: New evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 780-788.
    12. Sharma, Shahil & Escobari, Diego, 2018. "Identifying price bubble periods in the energy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 418-429.
    13. Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "Detection of bubbles in WTI, brent, and Dubai oil prices: A novel double recursive algorithm," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Wang, Xiao-Qing & Wu, Tong & Zhong, Huaming & Su, Chi-Wei, 2023. "Bubble behaviors in nickel price: What roles do geopolitical risk and speculation play?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    15. Caspi, Itamar & Graham, Meital, 2018. "Testing for bubbles in stock markets with irregular dividend distribution," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 89-94.
    16. Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Gabriele Mingoli, 2023. "Observation-Driven filters for Time-Series with Stochastic Trends and Mixed Causal Non-Causal Dynamics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-065/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. Horváth, Lajos & Li, Hemei & Liu, Zhenya, 2022. "How to identify the different phases of stock market bubbles statistically?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    18. Caravello, Tomas E. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2023. "Rational bubbles: Too many to be true?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    19. Ewing, Bradley T. & Thompson, Mark A., 2016. "The role of reserves and production in the market capitalization of oil and gas companies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 576-581.
    20. Tsai, I-Chun & Lin, Che-Chun, 2022. "A re-examination of housing bubbles: Evidence from European countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Drilled but uncompleted wells; Oil wells; Right-tailed ADF Test; Explosivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:254:y:2022:i:pb:s0360544222012014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.