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Modelling and forecasting the oil consumptions of the BRICS-T countries

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  • Karakurt, Izzet

Abstract

Oil’s widespread use in many economic activities has made it as one of the world’s most promising energy sources. It can drive or hinder economic development of a country based on its production and consumption. Given these facts, modeling and forecasting the oil consumption by region or a country becomes meaningful. Therefore, regression models were developed to forecast the future oil consumptions of the BRICS-T countries as emerging and growing economies using the time series of variables from 1965 to 2019 in this study. Then, the proposed models were verified through various statistical approaches including determination coefficient, F-and t-tests and predicted versus actual data. The governing variables on the oil consumptions were also determined statistically. Moreover, the forecasting performances of the proposed models were measured by error analysis of MAPE, RMSE, MAD, and PER. Furthermore, the future oil consumptions for the next 5, 10, 15 and 20 years were projected by the proposed models. The modeling results revealed that the proposed models could provide useful information for the scholars, policymakers and others stakeholders. Additionally, the forecasting results pointed out that the total oil consumptions of the BRICS-T countries in the next two decades would be increased by 70%.

Suggested Citation

  • Karakurt, Izzet, 2021. "Modelling and forecasting the oil consumptions of the BRICS-T countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:220:y:2021:i:c:s0360544220328279
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.119720
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