IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v219y2021ics0360544220326621.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Geopolitical risk and crude oil security: A Chinese perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Kai-Hua
  • Su, Chi-Wei
  • Umar, Muhammad

Abstract

This paper employs the mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) to assess the causal relationship between geopolitical risk (GPR) and crude oil security (COS) for China. In contrast to prior papers, we regard GPR as an independent variable rather than including it in the indicator system and construct oil supply and price channels to better understand how GPR influences Chinese COS. The mixed-frequency data regression provides a new insight that quarterly geopolitical risk threatens Chinese oil security, and a time-varying nexus is discovered in different quarters within a one-year period. Therefore, the Chinese state-owned oil giants should implement diversified strategies such as equity acquisition and oil field investment to ensure a stable crude oil supply. China also needs to construct friendly relations with oil-exporting countries and join United Nations activities such as Somali escorts and peacekeeping in Africa to protect oil production and transportation. The establishment of crude oil futures dominated by the RMB is an effective way to strengthen oil affordability to cope with the oil price volatility caused by geopolitical instabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Geopolitical risk and crude oil security: A Chinese perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:219:y:2021:i:c:s0360544220326621
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.119555
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220326621
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119555?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gupta, Rangan & Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2017. "Geopolitical risks and the oil-stock nexus over 1899–2016," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 165-173.
    2. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2019. "Point and density forecasts of oil returns: The role of geopolitical risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 580-587.
    3. Sun, Yanpeng & Ak, Aysegul & Serener, Berna & Xiong, Deping, 2020. "Natural resource abundance and financial development: A case study of emerging seven (E−7) economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Bhattacharyya, Subhes C., 2009. "Fossil-fuel dependence and vulnerability of electricity generation: Case of selected European countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2411-2420, June.
    5. Krane, Jim & Medlock, Kenneth B., 2018. "Geopolitical dimensions of US oil security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 558-565.
    6. Ghysels, Eric & Hill, Jonathan B. & Motegi, Kaiji, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 207-230.
    7. Sharifuddin, Shahnaz, 2014. "Methodology for quantitatively assessing the energy security of Malaysia and other southeast Asian countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 574-582.
    8. Sami Alpanda & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2010. "Oil Crisis, Energy-Saving Technological Change and the Stock Market Crash of 1973-74," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(4), pages 824-842, October.
    9. Li, Jinchao & Wang, Lina & Lin, Xiaoshan & Qu, Shen, 2020. "Analysis of China’s energy security evaluation system: Based on the energy security data from 30 provinces from 2010 to 2016," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    10. Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Financial implications of fourth industrial revolution: Can bitcoin improve prospects of energy investment?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    11. Kim, Won Joong & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hyun, Jun Seog & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Oil price shocks and China's economy: Reactions of the monetary policy to oil price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 61-69.
    12. Yuan, Meng & Zhang, Haoran & Wang, Bohong & Huang, Liqiao & Fang, Kai & Liang, Yongtu, 2020. "Downstream oil supply security in China: Policy implications from quantifying the impact of oil import disruption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    13. Song, Yan & Zhang, Ming & Sun, Ruifeng, 2019. "Using a new aggregated indicator to evaluate China's energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 167-174.
    14. Chuang, Ming Chih & Ma, Hwong Wen, 2013. "An assessment of Taiwan’s energy policy using multi-dimensional energy security indicators," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 301-311.
    15. Zhang, Long & Yu, Jing & Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Ren, Jingzheng, 2017. "Measuring energy security performance within China: Toward an inter-provincial prospective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 825-836.
    16. Correlje, Aad & van der Linde, Coby, 2006. "Energy supply security and geopolitics: A European perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 532-543, March.
    17. Chuang, Ming Chih & Ma, Hwong Wen, 2013. "Energy security and improvements in the function of diversity indices—Taiwan energy supply structure case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 9-20.
    18. Wu, Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Fan, Ying & Liu, Lan-Cui, 2007. "An empirical analysis of the risk of crude oil imports in China using improved portfolio approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4190-4199, August.
    19. Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Wang, Tianyang & Yang, Dongxiao, 2017. "Influential factors in crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 77-88.
    20. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Mukherjee, Ishani & Drupady, Ira Martina & D’Agostino, Anthony L., 2011. "Evaluating energy security performance from 1990 to 2010 for eighteen countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 5846-5853.
    21. Bompard, E. & Carpignano, A. & Erriquez, M. & Grosso, D. & Pession, M. & Profumo, F., 2017. "National energy security assessment in a geopolitical perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 144-154.
    22. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 295-306.
    23. Meng, Juan & Nie, He & Mo, Bin & Jiang, Yonghong, 2020. "Risk spillover effects from global crude oil market to China’s commodity sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    24. Zhang, Xi-Xi & Liu, Lu, 2020. "The time-varying causal relationship between oil price and unemployment: Evidence from the U.S. and China (EGY 118745)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    25. Brandt, Michael W. & Gao, Lin, 2019. "Macro fundamentals or geopolitical events? A textual analysis of news events for crude oil," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 64-94.
    26. Yang, Yuying & Li, Jianping & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming, 2014. "Measuring external oil supply risk: A modified diversification index with country risk and potential oil exports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 930-938.
    27. Chen, Jinyu & Zhu, Xuehong & Li, Hailing, 2020. "The pass-through effects of oil price shocks on China's inflation: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    28. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Chen, Xiuwen & Li, Jianping, 2017. "Modeling systemic risk of crude oil imports: Case of China’s global oil supply chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 449-465.
    29. Vivoda, Vlado, 2010. "Evaluating energy security in the Asia-Pacific region: A novel methodological approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5258-5263, September.
    30. Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Hai-Ying & Zhang, Dayong, 2019. "The impact of OPEC on East Asian oil import security: A multidimensional analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 99-107.
    31. Gong, Xu & Lin, Boqiang, 2017. "Forecasting the good and bad uncertainties of crude oil prices using a HAR framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 315-327.
    32. Abdel-Latif, Hany & El-Gamal, Mahmoud, 2020. "Financial liquidity, geopolitics, and oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    33. Lu, Hongfang & Xu, FengYing & Liu, Hongxiao & Wang, Jun & Campbell, Daniel E. & Ren, Hai, 2019. "Emergy-based analysis of the energy security of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 123-135.
    34. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2019. "Does geopolitical risk strengthen or depress oil prices and financial liquidity? Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    35. He, Zhifang, 2020. "Dynamic impacts of crude oil price on Chinese investor sentiment: Nonlinear causality and time-varying effect," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 131-153.
    36. Narula, Kapil & Sudhakara Reddy, B. & Pachauri, Shonali & Mahendra Dev, S., 2017. "Sustainable energy security for India: An assessment of the energy supply sub-system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 127-144.
    37. Dergiades, Theologos & Milas, Costas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2020. "A mixed frequency approach for stock returns and valuation ratios," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    38. Yao, Lixia & Chang, Youngho, 2014. "Energy security in China: A quantitative analysis and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 595-604.
    39. Motegi, Kaiji & Sadahiro, Akira, 2018. "Sluggish private investment in Japan’s Lost Decade: Mixed frequency vector autoregression approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 118-128.
    40. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    41. Mei, Dexiang & Ma, Feng & Liao, Yin & Wang, Lu, 2020. "Geopolitical risk uncertainty and oil future volatility: Evidence from MIDAS models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    42. Lin, Boqiang & Raza, Muhammad Yousaf, 2020. "Analysis of energy security indicators and CO2 emissions. A case from a developing economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    43. Pan, Xunzhang & Wang, Lining & Dai, Jiaquan & Zhang, Qi & Peng, Tianduo & Chen, Wenying, 2020. "Analysis of China’s oil and gas consumption under different scenarios toward 2050: An integrated modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    44. Liu, Jing & Ma, Feng & Tang, Yingkai & Zhang, Yaojie, 2019. "Geopolitical risk and oil volatility: A new insight," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    45. Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2012. "A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(4), pages 574-599, August.
    46. Augutis, Juozas & Krikštolaitis, Ričardas & Martišauskas, Linas & Urbonienė, Sigita & Urbonas, Rolandas & Ušpurienė, Aistė Barbora, 2020. "Analysis of energy security level in the Baltic States based on indicator approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    47. Zhao, Chunfu & Chen, Bin, 2014. "China’s oil security from the supply chain perspective: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 269-279.
    48. Vivoda, Vlado, 2009. "Diversification of oil import sources and energy security: A key strategy or an elusive objective?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4623, November.
    49. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Volatility jumps: The role of geopolitical risks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 247-258.
    50. Lv, Xin & Lien, Donald & Yu, Chang, 2020. "Who affects who? Oil price against the stock return of oil-related companies: Evidence from the U.S. and China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-100.
    51. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Peng, Yu-Lu & Ma, Chao-Qun & Shen, Bo, 2017. "Can environmental innovation facilitate carbon emissions reduction? Evidence from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 18-28.
    52. Brock Blomberg & Gregory Hess & J. Hunter Jackson, 2009. "Terrorism And The Returns To Oil," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 409-432, November.
    53. Li, Yingzhu & Shi, Xunpeng & Yao, Lixia, 2016. "Evaluating energy security of resource-poor economies: A modified principle component analysis approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 211-221.
    54. Narula, Kapil & Sudhakara Reddy, B. & Pachauri, Shonali, 2017. "Sustainable Energy Security for India: An assessment of energy demand sub-system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(P2), pages 126-139.
    55. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    56. Mohsin, M. & Zhou, P. & Iqbal, N. & Shah, S.A.A., 2018. "Assessing oil supply security of South Asia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 438-447.
    57. Wei Su, Chi & Wang, Xiao-Qing & Tao, Ran & Oana-Ramona, Lobonţ, 2019. "Do oil prices drive agricultural commodity prices? Further evidence in a global bio-energy context," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 691-701.
    58. Huntington, Hillard G., 2018. "Measuring oil supply disruptions: A historical perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 426-433.
    59. Liu, Litao & Cao, Zhi & Liu, Xiaojie & Shi, Lei & Cheng, Shengkui & Liu, Gang, 2020. "Oil security revisited: An assessment based on complex network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    60. Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2020. "Factors driving oil price —— from the perspective of United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    61. Sun, Xiaolei & Li, Jianping & Wang, Yongfeng & Clark, Woodrow W., 2014. "China's Sovereign Wealth Fund Investments in overseas energy: The energy security perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 654-661.
    62. Wang, Meng & Yu, Hang & Lin, Xiaoyu & Jing, Rui & He, Fangjun & Li, Chaoen, 2020. "Comparing stochastic programming with posteriori approach for multi-objective optimization of distributed energy systems under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    63. Pablo Bustelo, 2005. "China and the Geopolitics of Oil in the Asian Pacific Region," Others 0511005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    64. Ang, B.W. & Choong, W.L. & Ng, T.S., 2015. "Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1077-1093.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gong, Xu & Sun, Yi & Du, Zhili, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and China's oil security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    2. Wang, Deqing & Tian, Sihua & Fang, Lei & Xu, Yan, 2020. "A functional index model for dynamically evaluating China's energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Wang, Kai-Hua & Zhao, Yan-Xin & Su, Yun Hsuan & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "Energy security and CO2 emissions: New evidence from time-varying and quantile-varying aspects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    4. Gong, Xu & Wang, You & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Assessing dynamic China’s energy security: Based on functional data analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    5. Li, Sufang & Tu, Dalun & Zeng, Yan & Gong, Chenggang & Yuan, Di, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter in crude oil and stock markets? Evidence from disaggregated data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    6. Zhang, Long & Bai, Wuliyasu & Xiao, Huijuan & Ren, Jingzheng, 2021. "Measuring and improving regional energy security: A methodological framework based on both quantitative and qualitative analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    7. Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Ali Polat & Hasan Tekin & Ahmet Tunali, 2022. "The Ascent of Geopolitics: Scientometric Analysis and Ramifications of Geopolitical Risk," Working Papers hal-03638273, HAL.
    8. Abdullah, Fahad Bin & Iqbal, Rizwan & Hyder, Syed Irfan & Jawaid, Mohammad, 2020. "Energy security indicators for Pakistan: An integrated approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Pin Li & Jinsuo Zhang, 2019. "Is China’s Energy Supply Sustainable? New Research Model Based on the Exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1) Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, January.
    10. Zhu, Bo & Deng, Yuanyue & Lin, Renda & Hu, Xin & Chen, Pingshe, 2022. "Energy security: Does systemic risk spillover matter? Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    11. Karatayev, Marat & Hall, Stephen, 2020. "Establishing and comparing energy security trends in resource-rich exporting nations (Russia and the Caspian Sea region)," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. Song, Yan & Zhang, Ming & Sun, Ruifeng, 2019. "Using a new aggregated indicator to evaluate China's energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 167-174.
    13. Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua & He, Zhifang, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risks on investor attention and speculation in the oil market: Evidence from nonlinear and time-varying analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    14. Matsumoto, Ken’ichi & Shiraki, Hiroto, 2018. "Energy security performance in Japan under different socioeconomic and energy conditions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 391-401.
    15. Ahdi Noomen Ajmi & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2021. "Revisiting the Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Tunisia: Carbon Dioxide vs. Ecological Footprint," Working Papers 202171, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Wu, Jie & Zhao, Ruizeng & Sun, Jiasen & Zhou, Xuewei, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risks on oil price fluctuations: Based on GARCH-MIDAS model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    17. Huang, Beijia & Zhang, Long & Ma, Linmao & Bai, Wuliyasu & Ren, Jingzheng, 2021. "Multi-criteria decision analysis of China’s energy security from 2008 to 2017 based on Fuzzy BWM-DEA-AR model and Malmquist Productivity Index," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    18. Ioannidis, Alexis & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J. & Li, Xin & Notton, Gilles & Stephanides, Phedeas, 2019. "The case for islands’ energy vulnerability: Electricity supply diversity in 44 global islands," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 440-452.
    19. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Xing, Wenwu & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2022. "The impact of energy security on income inequality: The key role of economic development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    20. Gong, Xu & Xu, Jun, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and dynamic connectedness between commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:219:y:2021:i:c:s0360544220326621. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.