IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v147y2018icp1311-1320.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the determinants of electricity consumption in Jordan

Author

Listed:
  • Al-Bajjali, Saif Kayed
  • Shamayleh, Adel Yacoub

Abstract

This research analyzes proposed determinants of electricity consumption in Jordan during the period 1986–2015. For the upcoming years, Jordan's electricity consumption projections expected to exceed electricity generation capacities. Therefore, to understand electricity consumption key determinants, six independent variables were used: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), electricity prices, population, urbanization, structure of economy, and aggregate water consumption. A multivariate model was constructed using annual data to examine the influence of the independent variables on electricity demand. Johansen Cointegration test is used to examine the long-term relationships in the model, and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is utilized then. VECM regression results show that GDP, urbanization, structure of economy and aggregate water consumption are significant and positively related to electricity consumption, while electricity prices are significant and negatively related to electricity consumption. Population showed significant positive effect on electricity consumption in the short run. The result of VECM implies that there is a need to invest more in green energy projects, ban importing low efficiency electrical appliances and review refugee reception policy in place.

Suggested Citation

  • Al-Bajjali, Saif Kayed & Shamayleh, Adel Yacoub, 2018. "Estimating the determinants of electricity consumption in Jordan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 1311-1320.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:147:y:2018:i:c:p:1311-1320
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.01.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544218300100
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2018.01.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jamil, Faisal & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2010. "The relationship between electricity consumption, electricity prices and GDP in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6016-6025, October.
    2. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    3. Ghali, Khalifa H. & El-Sakka, M. I. T., 2004. "Energy use and output growth in Canada: a multivariate cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 225-238, March.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    5. Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2009. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in South Africa: A trivariate causality test," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 635-640, September.
    6. Unesco-Ihp ., 2015. "Water in the Post-2015 Development Agenda and Sustainable Development Goals," Working Papers id:7841, eSocialSciences.
    7. Noel Alter & Shabib Haider Syed, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of Electricity Demand in Pakistan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 116-139.
    8. Atakhanova, Zauresh & Howie, Peter, 2007. "Electricity demand in Kazakhstan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 3729-3743, July.
    9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell & Prasad, Arti, 2007. "Electricity consumption in G7 countries: A panel cointegration analysis of residential demand elasticities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4485-4494, September.
    10. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2007. "Electricity demand analysis using cointegration and ARIMA modelling: A case study of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1129-1146, February.
    11. Ali Matar & Hussain Ali Bekhet, 2015. "Causal Interaction among Electricity Consumption, Financial Development, Exports and Economic Growth in Jordan: Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 955-967.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    13. Obinna Ubani, 2013. "Determinants of the dynamics of electricity consumption in Nigeria," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(2), pages 149-161, June.
    14. Ziramba, Emmanuel, 2009. "Disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in South Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2214-2220, June.
    15. Kahsai, Mulugeta S. & Nondo, Chali & Schaeffer, Peter V. & Gebremedhin, Tesfa G., 2012. "Income level and the energy consumption–GDP nexus: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 739-746.
    16. Hamzacebi, Coskun, 2007. "Forecasting of Turkey's net electricity energy consumption on sectoral bases," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 2009-2016, March.
    17. Bose, Ranjan Kumar & Shukla, Megha, 1999. "Elasticities of electricity demand in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 137-146, March.
    18. Athukorala, P.P.A Wasantha & Wilson, Clevo, 2010. "Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity: New evidence from Sri Lanka," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 34-40, September.
    19. Esso, Loesse Jacques, 2010. "Threshold cointegration and causality relationship between energy use and growth in seven African countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1383-1391, November.
    20. Ehsan Latif, 2015. "A Panel Data Analysis of the Demand for Electricity in Canada," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 34(3), pages 192-205, September.
    21. Akay, Diyar & Atak, Mehmet, 2007. "Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1670-1675.
    22. Dilaver, Zafer & Hunt, Lester C., 2011. "Turkish aggregate electricity demand: An outlook to 2020," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6686-6696.
    23. Clive Hamilton & Richard Denniss, 2001. "Generating Emissions? The Impact Of Microeconomic Reform On The Electricity Industry," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 20(3), pages 15-28, September.
    24. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Decembrie.
    25. Christian Bayer & Christoph Hanck, 2013. "Combining non-cointegration tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 83-95, January.
    26. Tsangyao Chang & Wenshwo Fang & Li-Fang Wen, 2001. "Energy consumption, employment, output, and temporal causality: evidence from Taiwan based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 1045-1056.
    27. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Abdul Qayyum, 2009. "The demand for electricity in Pakistan," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 33(1), pages 70-96, March.
    28. Inglesi, Roula, 2010. "Aggregate electricity demand in South Africa: Conditional forecasts to 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 197-204, January.
    29. Lin, Boqiang & Omoju, Oluwasola E. & Okonkwo, Jennifer U., 2016. "Factors influencing renewable electricity consumption in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 687-696.
    30. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2005. "Electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1109-1116, June.
    31. Khraief, Naceur & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mallick, Hrushikesh & Loganathan, Nanthakumar, 2016. "Estimation of Electricity Demand Function for Algeria: Revisit of Time Series Analysis," MPRA Paper 74870, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Nov 2016.
    32. Mudassir Zaman & Farzana Shaheen & Azad Haider & Sadia Qamar, 2015. "Examining Relationship between Electricity Consumption and its Major Determinants in Pakistan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 998-1009.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mudassir Zaman & Farzana Shaheen & Azad Haider & Sadia Qamar, 2015. "Examining Relationship between Electricity Consumption and its Major Determinants in Pakistan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 998-1009.
    2. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    3. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    4. Md. Shahiduzzaman & Khorshed Alam, 2014. "A reassessment of energy and GDP relationship: the case of Australia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 323-344, April.
    5. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Menegaki, Angeliki N., 2019. "A time varying approach on the price elasticity of electricity in India during 1975–2013," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 385-397.
    6. Khan, Muhammad Arshad & Abbas, Faisal, 2016. "The dynamics of electricity demand in Pakistan: A panel cointegration analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1159-1178.
    7. Lin, Boqiang & Ouyang, Xiaoling, 2014. "Electricity demand and conservation potential in the Chinese nonmetallic mineral products industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 243-253.
    8. PHIRI Andrew & NYONI Bothwell, 2016. "Re-Visting The Electricity-Growth Nexus In South Africa," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 11(1), pages 97-111, April.
    9. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2014. "The nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth in Bahrain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 227-237.
    10. Godwin Effiong Akpan & Usenobong Friday Akpan, 2012. "Electricity Consumption, Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 292-306.
    11. Saleheen, Khan & Farooq Ahmed, Jam & Muhammad, Shahbaz, 2012. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Kazakhstan: Fresh Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis," MPRA Paper 43460, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Dec 2012.
    12. Yuan, Jia-Hai & Kang, Jian-Gang & Zhao, Chang-Hong & Hu, Zhao-Guang, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3077-3094, November.
    13. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "Trivariate causality between economic growth, urbanisation and electricity consumption in Angola: Cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 876-884.
    14. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Tang, Chor Foon & Shahbaz Shabbir, Muhammad, 2011. "Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal using cointegration and causality approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3529-3536, June.
    15. Bothwell Nyoni & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "The Electricity-growth Nexus in South Africa: Evidence from Asymmetric Cointegration and Co-feature Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 80-88.
    16. Roubaud, David & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Financial Development, Economic Growth, and Electricity Demand: A Sector Analysis of an Emerging Economy," MPRA Paper 87212, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jun 2018.
    17. Arisoy, Ibrahim & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2014. "Estimating industrial and residential electricity demand in Turkey: A time varying parameter approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 959-964.
    18. Adom, Philip Kofi & Bekoe, William, 2012. "Conditional dynamic forecast of electrical energy consumption requirements in Ghana by 2020: A comparison of ARDL and PAM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 367-380.
    19. Lee Lian Ivy-Yap & Hussain Ali Bekhet, 2015. "Examining the Feedback Response of Residential Electricity Consumption towards Changes in its Determinants: Evidence from Malaysia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 772-781.
    20. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:147:y:2018:i:c:p:1311-1320. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.