IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v139y2017icp184-195.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of decentralized systems in providing universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa – A model-based approach

Author

Listed:
  • Dagnachew, Anteneh G.
  • Lucas, Paul L.
  • Hof, Andries F.
  • Gernaat, David E.H.J.
  • de Boer, Harmen-Sytze
  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Abstract

Poverty and lack of access to electricity are highly correlated. In Sub-Saharan Africa, one of the poorest regions in the world, two in every three people have no access to electricity. This paper describes a purpose designed model to explore and project the development in the Sub-Saharan African electricity sector in Baseline and Universal access scenarios. The results provide insight into the role of different systems and technologies in providing access to electricity in the region and associated investment requirements. We project that Baseline developments do not lead to universal access to electricity, especially in Eastern Africa and the rural areas. The results show that central grid extension should be complemented with off-grid systems (mini-grid and stand-alone) to increase access in Sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, the targeted level of consumption has large implications on the preferred electrification technology and associated investment requirements. For low levels of consumption, off-grid technologies are the most important technologies to increase access rate, while for high levels of consumption, extending the central grid is more economical. Total cumulative investment in the period 2010-2030 amount to 22 billion USD for low levels of consumption and exceed 2.5 trillion USD for high levels of consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Dagnachew, Anteneh G. & Lucas, Paul L. & Hof, Andries F. & Gernaat, David E.H.J. & de Boer, Harmen-Sytze & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2017. "The role of decentralized systems in providing universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa – A model-based approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 184-195.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:139:y:2017:i:c:p:184-195
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.07.144
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217313282
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2017.07.144?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nerini, Francesco Fuso & Broad, Oliver & Mentis, Dimitris & Welsch, Manuel & Bazilian, Morgan & Howells, Mark, 2016. "A cost comparison of technology approaches for improving access to electricity services," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 255-265.
    2. Parshall, Lily & Pillai, Dana & Mohan, Shashank & Sanoh, Aly & Modi, Vijay, 2009. "National electricity planning in settings with low pre-existing grid coverage: Development of a spatial model and case study of Kenya," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2395-2410, June.
    3. Deichmann, Uwe & Meisner, Craig & Murray, Siobhan & Wheeler, David, 2011. "The economics of renewable energy expansion in rural Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 215-227, January.
    4. Lucas, Paul L. & Nielsen, Jens & Calvin, Katherine & L. McCollum, David & Marangoni, Giacomo & Strefler, Jessica & van der Zwaan, Bob C.C. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2015. "Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 705-717.
    5. Ahlborg, Helene & Hammar, Linus, 2014. "Drivers and barriers to rural electrification in Tanzania and Mozambique – Grid-extension, off-grid, and renewable energy technologies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 117-124.
    6. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107005198.
    7. Ou, Ting-Chia & Hong, Chih-Ming, 2014. "Dynamic operation and control of microgrid hybrid power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 314-323.
    8. Sokona, Youba & Mulugetta, Yacob & Gujba, Haruna, 2012. "Widening energy access in Africa: Towards energy transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(S1), pages 3-10.
    9. United Nations UN, 2015. "Transforming our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development," Working Papers id:7559, eSocialSciences.
    10. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521182935.
    11. Rahman, Md. Mizanur & Paatero, Jukka V. & Lahdelma, Risto, 2013. "Evaluation of choices for sustainable rural electrification in developing countries: A multicriteria approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 589-599.
    12. Hong, Chih-Ming & Ou, Ting-Chia & Lu, Kai-Hung, 2013. "Development of intelligent MPPT (maximum power point tracking) control for a grid-connected hybrid power generation system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 270-279.
    13. van Ruijven, Bas J. & Schers, Jules & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2012. "Model-based scenarios for rural electrification in developing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 386-397.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Moretti, Luca & Astolfi, Marco & Vergara, Claudio & Macchi, Ennio & Pérez-Arriaga, Josè Ignacio & Manzolini, Giampaolo, 2019. "A design and dispatch optimization algorithm based on mixed integer linear programming for rural electrification," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 1104-1121.
    2. Florian Egli & Churchill Agutu & Bjarne Steffen & Tobias S. Schmidt, 2023. "The cost of electrifying all households in 40 Sub-Saharan African countries by 2030," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. George Kyriakarakos & Athanasios T. Balafoutis & Dionysis Bochtis, 2020. "Proposing a Paradigm Shift in Rural Electrification Investments in Sub-Saharan Africa through Agriculture," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-19, April.
    4. Dalla Longa, Francesco & van der Zwaan, Bob, 2021. "Heart of light: an assessment of enhanced electricity access in Africa," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    5. Riva, Fabio & Gardumi, Francesco & Tognollo, Annalisa & Colombo, Emanuela, 2019. "Soft-linking energy demand and optimisation models for local long-term electricity planning: An application to rural India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 32-46.
    6. Falchetta, Giacomo & Mistry, Malcolm N., 2021. "The role of residential air circulation and cooling demand for electrification planning: Implications of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Coppitters, Diederik & Contino, Francesco & El-Baz, Ahmed & Breuhaus, Peter & De Paepe, Ward, 2020. "Techno-economic feasibility study of a solar-powered distributed cogeneration system producing power and distillate water: Sensitivity and exergy analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 1089-1097.
    8. George Kyriakarakos & Erika Ntavou & Dimitris Manolakos, 2020. "Investigation of the Use of Low Temperature Geothermal Organic Rankine Cycle Engine in an Autonomous Polygeneration Microgrid," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    9. Nasser Yimen & Oumarou Hamandjoda & Lucien Meva’a & Benoit Ndzana & Jean Nganhou, 2018. "Analyzing of a Photovoltaic/Wind/Biogas/Pumped-Hydro Off-Grid Hybrid System for Rural Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa—Case Study of Djoundé in Northern Cameroon," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-30, October.
    10. Hoffmann, Martha M. & Ansari, Dawud, 2019. "Simulating the potential of swarm grids for pre-electrified communities – A case study from Yemen," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 289-302.
    11. Ioannis Pappis & Andreas Sahlberg & Tewodros Walle & Oliver Broad & Elusiyan Eludoyin & Mark Howells & Will Usher, 2021. "Influence of Electrification Pathways in the Electricity Sector of Ethiopia—Policy Implications Linking Spatial Electrification Analysis and Medium to Long-Term Energy Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-36, February.
    12. Bolukbasi, Gizem & Kocaman, Ayse Selin, 2018. "A prize collecting Steiner tree approach to least cost evaluation of grid and off-grid electrification systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 536-543.
    13. Setu Pelz & Shonali Pachauri & Sebastian Groh, 2018. "A critical review of modern approaches for multidimensional energy poverty measurement," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(6), November.
    14. Lorafe Lozano & Edward M. Querikiol & Evelyn B. Taboada, 2021. "The Viability of Providing 24-Hour Electricity Access to Off-Grid Island Communities in the Philippines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-18, October.
    15. Karsu, Özlem & Kocaman, Ayse Selin, 2021. "Towards the Sustainable Development Goals: A Bi-objective framework for electricity access," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    16. Pillot, Benjamin & Muselli, Marc & Poggi, Philippe & Dias, João Batista, 2019. "Historical trends in global energy policy and renewable power system issues in Sub-Saharan Africa: The case of solar PV," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 113-124.
    17. Ortega-Arriaga, P. & Babacan, O. & Nelson, J. & Gambhir, A., 2021. "Grid versus off-grid electricity access options: A review on the economic and environmental impacts," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    18. Nock, Destenie & Levin, Todd & Baker, Erin, 2020. "Changing the policy paradigm: A benefit maximization approach to electricity planning in developing countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    19. Dagnachew, Anteneh G. & Hof, Andries F. & Roelfsema, Mark R. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2020. "Actors and governance in the transition toward universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    20. Robert Van Buskirk & Lawrence Kachione & Gilbert Robert & Rachel Kanyerere & Christina Gilbert & James Majoni, 2021. "How to Make Off-Grid Solar Electric Cooking Cheaper Than Wood-Based Cooking," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.
    21. Valickova, Petra & Elms, Nicholas, 2021. "The costs of providing access to electricity in selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    22. Moyer, Jonathan D. & Hedden, Steve, 2020. "Are we on the right path to achieve the sustainable development goals?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    23. Dagnachew, Anteneh G. & Lucas, Paul L. & Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2018. "Trade-offs and synergies between universal electricity access and climate change mitigation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 355-366.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ortega-Arriaga, P. & Babacan, O. & Nelson, J. & Gambhir, A., 2021. "Grid versus off-grid electricity access options: A review on the economic and environmental impacts," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Mertzanis, Charilaos, 2018. "Institutions, development and energy constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 962-982.
    3. Trotter, Philipp A. & McManus, Marcelle C. & Maconachie, Roy, 2017. "Electricity planning and implementation in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1189-1209.
    4. Dagnachew, Anteneh G. & Hof, Andries F. & Roelfsema, Mark R. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2020. "Actors and governance in the transition toward universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Ondraczek, Janosch, 2014. "Are we there yet? Improving solar PV economics and power planning in developing countries: The case of Kenya," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 604-615.
    6. Alexandros Korkovelos & Babak Khavari & Andreas Sahlberg & Mark Howells & Christopher Arderne, 2019. "The Role of Open Access Data in Geospatial Electrification Planning and the Achievement of SDG7. An OnSSET-Based Case Study for Malawi," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-36, April.
    7. Child, Michael & Koskinen, Otto & Linnanen, Lassi & Breyer, Christian, 2018. "Sustainability guardrails for energy scenarios of the global energy transition," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 321-334.
    8. Bolukbasi, Gizem & Kocaman, Ayse Selin, 2018. "A prize collecting Steiner tree approach to least cost evaluation of grid and off-grid electrification systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 536-543.
    9. Karsu, Özlem & Kocaman, Ayse Selin, 2021. "Towards the Sustainable Development Goals: A Bi-objective framework for electricity access," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    10. Horstmann, Britta & Hein, Jonas, 2017. "Aligning climate change mitigation and sustainable development under the UNFCCC: a critical assessment of the Clean Development Mechanism, the Green Climate Fund and REDD+," IDOS Studies, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), volume 96, number 96.
    11. Ribas, Aline & Lucena, André F.P. & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2017. "Bridging the energy divide and securing higher collective well-being in a climate-constrained world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 435-450.
    12. Almeshqab, Fatema & Ustun, Taha Selim, 2019. "Lessons learned from rural electrification initiatives in developing countries: Insights for technical, social, financial and public policy aspects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 35-53.
    13. Ciller, Pedro & Lumbreras, Sara, 2020. "Electricity for all: The contribution of large-scale planning tools to the energy-access problem," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    14. Abubakar Mas’ud, Abdullahi & Wirba, Asan Vernyuy & Muhammad-Sukki, Firdaus & Albarracín, Ricardo & Abu-Bakar, Siti Hawa & Munir, Abu Bakar & Bani, Nurul Aini, 2016. "A review on the recent progress made on solar photovoltaic in selected countries of sub-Saharan Africa," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 441-452.
    15. Lucas, Paul L. & Nielsen, Jens & Calvin, Katherine & L. McCollum, David & Marangoni, Giacomo & Strefler, Jessica & van der Zwaan, Bob C.C. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2015. "Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 705-717.
    16. Trotter, Philipp A. & Cooper, Nathanial J. & Wilson, Peter R., 2019. "A multi-criteria, long-term energy planning optimisation model with integrated on-grid and off-grid electrification – The case of Uganda," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C), pages 288-312.
    17. van der Zwaan, Bob & Kober, Tom & Longa, Francesco Dalla & van der Laan, Anouk & Jan Kramer, Gert, 2018. "An integrated assessment of pathways for low-carbon development in Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 387-395.
    18. Edvins Karnitis & Janis Bicevskis & Girts Karnitis, 2021. "Measuring the Implementation of the Agenda 2030 Vision in Its Comprehensive Sense: Methodology and Tool," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, February.
    19. Doblinger, Claudia & Surana, Kavita & Anadon, Laura Diaz, 2019. "Governments as partners: The role of alliances in U.S. cleantech startup innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1458-1475.
    20. Anne-Maree Dowd & Michelle Rodriguez & Talia Jeanneret, 2015. "Social Science Insights for the BioCCS Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-19, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:139:y:2017:i:c:p:184-195. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.