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The economics of renewable energy expansion in rural Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Deichmann, Uwe
  • Meisner, Craig
  • Murray, Siobhan
  • Wheeler, David

Abstract

Accelerating development in Sub-Saharan Africa will require massive expansion of access to electricity -- currently reaching only about one-third of households. This paper explores how essential economic development might be reconciled with the need to keep carbon emissions in check. The authors develop a geographically explicit framework and use spatial modeling and cost estimates from recent engineering studies to determine where stand-alone renewable energy generation is a cost effective alternative to centralized grid supply. The results suggest that decentralized renewable energy will likely play an important role in expanding rural energy access. But it will be the lowest cost option for a minority of households in Africa, even when likely cost reductions over the next 20 years are considered. Decentralized renewables are competitive mostly in remote and rural areas, while grid connected supply dominates denser areas where the majority of households reside. These findings underscore the need to de-carbonize the fuel mix for centralized power generation as it expands in Africa.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5193.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5193

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Keywords: Energy Production and Transportation; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Transport Economics Policy&Planning; Power&Energy Conversion; Carbon Policy and Trading;

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References

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  1. Neij, Lena, 2008. "Cost development of future technologies for power generation--A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 2200-2211, June.
  2. Marti­nez, Daniel M. & Ebenhack, Ben W., 2008. "Understanding the role of energy consumption in human development through the use of saturation phenomena," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1430-1435, April.
  3. Kevin Ummel & David Wheeler, 2008. "Desert Power: The Economics of Solar Thermal Electricity for Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East," Working Papers 156, Center for Global Development.
  4. Klose, Andreas & Drexl, Andreas, 2005. "Facility location models for distribution system design," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 4-29, April.
  5. Xavier Gabaix & Yannis M. Ioannides, 2003. "The Evolution of City Size Distributions," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0310, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  6. Buys, Piet & Deichmann, Uwe & Meisner, Craig & Ton-That, Thao & Wheeler, David, 2007. "Country stakes in climate change negotiations : two dimensions of vulnerability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4300, The World Bank.
  7. Parshall, Lily & Pillai, Dana & Mohan, Shashank & Sanoh, Aly & Modi, Vijay, 2009. "National electricity planning in settings with low pre-existing grid coverage: Development of a spatial model and case study of Kenya," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2395-2410, June.
  8. Kebede, Ellene & Kagochi, John & Jolly, Curtis M., 2010. "Energy consumption and economic development in Sub-Sahara Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 532-537, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ian Rowlands, 2011. "Ancillary impacts of energy-related climate change mitigation options in Africa’s least developed countries," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 16(7), pages 749-773, October.
  2. Morgan Bazilian & Patrick Nussbaumer & Hans-Holger Rogner & Abeeku Brew-Hammond & Vivien Foster & Shonali Pachauri & Eric Williams & Mark Howells & Philippe Niyongabo & Lawrence Musaba & Brian Ó Gall, 2011. "Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 2011.68, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  3. Abdul-Salam, Yakubu & Phimister, Euan, 2014. "Modelling the Impact of Market Imperfections on Farm Household Investment in Stand-Alone Solar PV," 88th Annual Conference, April 9-11, 2014, AgroParisTech, Paris, France 169742, Agricultural Economics Society.
  4. Paul Collier & Anthony J. Venables, 2012. "Greening Africa? Technologies, endowments and the latecomer effect," CSAE Working Paper Series 2012-06, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  5. Ondraczek, Janosch, 2014. "Are we there yet? Improving solar PV economics and power planning in developing countries: The case of Kenya," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 604-615.
  6. Ian Rowlands, 2011. "Co-impacts of energy-related climate change mitigation in Africa’s least developed countries: the evidence base and research needs," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37575, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  7. Cole, Matthew A. & Elliott, Robert J.R. & Strobl, Eric, 2014. "Climate Change, Hydro-Dependency, and the African Dam Boom," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 84-98.
  8. Rosnes, Orvika & Vennemo, Haakon, 2012. "The cost of providing electricity to Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1318-1328.
  9. Maes, Wouter H. & Verbist, Bruno, 2012. "Increasing the sustainability of household cooking in developing countries: Policy implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 4204-4221.
  10. Ian H. Rowlands, 2011. "Co-impacts of energy-related climate change mitigation in Africa’s least developed countries: the evidence base and research needs," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 39, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  11. Kemausuor, Francis & Obeng, George Yaw & Brew-Hammond, Abeeku & Duker, Alfred, 2011. "A review of trends, policies and plans for increasing energy access in Ghana," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 5143-5154.
  12. Giorgia Giovannetti & Elisa Ticci, 2013. "Biofuel Development and Large-Scale Land Deals in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers - Economics wp2013_27.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  13. World Bank, 2012. "Addressing the Electricity Access Gap," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12530, The World Bank.

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