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Are we there yet? Improving solar PV economics and power planning in developing countries: The case of Kenya

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Abstract

Despite the rapid decline in the cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the past five years, even recent academic research suggests that the cost of generating PV electricity remains too high for PV to make a meaningful contribution to the generation of grid electricity in developing countries. This assessment is reflected in the views of policymakers throughout Africa, who often consider PV as a technology suited only to remote locations and small-scale applications. This paper therefore analyzes whether, in contrast to conventional wisdom, PV is already competitive with other generation technologies. Analytically, the paper is based on a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) model to calculate the cost of PV electricity in Kenya, which serves as a case study. Based on actual technology costs and Kenya’s solar resource, the LCOE from PV is estimated at USD 0.21/kWh for the year 2011, with scenario results ranging from USD 0.17-0.30/kWh. This suggests that the LCOE of grid-connected PV systems may already be below that of the most expensive conventional power plants, i.e. medium-speed diesel generators and gas turbines, which account for a large share of Kenya’s current power mix. This finding implies that researchers and policymakers may be mistaken in perceiving solar PV as a costly niche technology, rather than a feasible option for the expansion of power generation in developing countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-200.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 18 Apr 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:200

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Keywords: solar photovoltaic electricity; on-grid electricity supply; levelized cost of electricity; developing countries; Africa;

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  1. Rosnes, Orvika & Vennemo, Haakon, 2012. "The cost of providing electricity to Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1318-1328.
  2. Jann Lay & Janosch Ondraczek & Jana Stoever, 2012. "Renewables in the Energy Transition: Evidence on Solar Home Systems and Lighting-Fuel Choice in Kenya," GIGA Working Paper Series 198, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
  3. Peters, Michael & Schmidt, Tobias S. & Wiederkehr, David & Schneider, Malte, 2011. "Shedding light on solar technologies'A techno-economic assessment and its policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6422-6439, October.
  4. Deichmann, Uwe & Meisner, Craig & Murray, Siobhan & Wheeler, David, 2011. "The economics of renewable energy expansion in rural Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 215-227, January.
  5. Paul Collier & Tony Venables, 2012. "Greening Africa? Technologies, endowments and the latecomer effect," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2012-06, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Branker, K. & Pathak, M.J.M. & Pearce, J.M., 2011. "A review of solar photovoltaic levelized cost of electricity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4470-4482.
  7. Bazilian, Morgan & Onyeji, Ijeoma & Liebreich, Michael & MacGill, Ian & Chase, Jennifer & Shah, Jigar & Gielen, Dolf & Arent, Doug & Landfear, Doug & Zhengrong, Shi, 2013. "Re-considering the economics of photovoltaic power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 329-338.
  8. Ondraczek, Janosch, 2013. "The sun rises in the east (of Africa): A comparison of the development and status of solar energy markets in Kenya and Tanzania," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 407-417.
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Cited by:
  1. Janosch Ondraczek & Nadejda Komendantova & Anthony Patt, 2013. "WACC the Dog: The Effect of Financing Costs on the Levelized Cost of Solar Pv Power," Working Papers FNU-201, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University.

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