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At what valuation of sustainability can we abandon fossil fuels? A comprehensive multistage decision support model for electricity planning

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  • Shakouri G., H.
  • Aliakbarisani, S.

Abstract

Predominance of fossil-fuel technologies and lack of enough incentives to expand sustainable technologies has intensified energy issues and the global warming problem. Combining mathematical programming and decision-making techniques, this paper proposes a novel comprehensive multistage method to insert sustainability costs in determining the optimum strategy of energy system expansion for an energy-rich developing country. Since the sustainability attributes have the same value respecting all conversion technologies, a nonlinear equal-weight data envelopment analysis is used to evaluate the technologies based on environmental, social and economic sustainability dimensions, the weightings associated with which are calculated. Sustainability costs, including pollutant emission costs, water and land utilization, etc. are then calibrated by the weightings and a mixed integer programming model is used to determine the optimum share of each technology in electricity generation for Iran, during the period of 2013–2040. The results suggest a late shift from fossil-fuel consumption by increasing the share of renewable energies. The model demonstrates that in countries with excessive fossil-fuel resources and high contribution of fossil-fuel technologies, including sustainability costs/benefits cannot lead to commercialization of renewable energy technologies, unless governments design effective incentive/tax policies, or fuel prices ascend enough again. The recent fuel price drop even deteriorates the situation.

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  • Shakouri G., H. & Aliakbarisani, S., 2016. "At what valuation of sustainability can we abandon fossil fuels? A comprehensive multistage decision support model for electricity planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 60-77.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:107:y:2016:i:c:p:60-77
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.03.124
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    6. Sajad Aliakbari Sani & Azadeh Maroufmashat & Frédéric Babonneau & Olivier Bahn & Erick Delage & Alain Haurie & Normand Mousseau & Kathleen Vaillancourt, 2022. "Energy Transition Pathways for Deep Decarbonization of the Greater Montreal Region: An Energy Optimization Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, May.
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    8. Assadi, Mohammad Reza & Ataebi, Melikasadat & Ataebi, Elmira sadat & Hasani, Aliakbar, 2022. "Prioritization of renewable energy resources based on sustainable management approach using simultaneous evaluation of criteria and alternatives: A case study on Iran's electricity industry," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 820-832.
    9. Carlos Roberto de Sousa Costa & Paula Ferreira, 2023. "A Review on the Internalization of Externalities in Electricity Generation Expansion Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-19, February.
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    11. Rodgers, Mark D. & Coit, David W. & Felder, Frank A. & Carlton, Annmarie, 2018. "Generation expansion planning considering health and societal damages – A simulation-based optimization approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 951-963.
    12. Ahmad, Salman & Nadeem, Abid & Akhanova, Gulzhanat & Houghton, Tom & Muhammad-Sukki, Firdaus, 2017. "Multi-criteria evaluation of renewable and nuclear resources for electricity generation in Kazakhstan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1880-1891.
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    15. Virgínio e Silva, Joab Oliveira & Almeida, Manuel Fonseca & da Conceição Alvim-Ferraz, Maria & Dias, Joana Maia, 2018. "Integrated production of biodiesel and bioethanol from sweet potato," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 114-120.
    16. Aryanpur, V. & Ghahremani, M. & Mamipour, S. & Fattahi, M. & Ó Gallachóir, B. & Bazilian, M.D. & Glynn, J., 2022. "Ex-post analysis of energy subsidy removal through integrated energy systems modelling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
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