IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v101y2016icp121-131.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Carbon footprint of global passenger cars: Scenarios through 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Hao, Han
  • Geng, Yong
  • Sarkis, Joseph

Abstract

Individual ownership of passenger cars has raised significant environmental concern due to carbon dioxide emissions from their usage. In this study, by establishing a bottom-up accounting framework with country-level resolution, a set of scenarios reflecting the possible trajectories of carbon dioxide emissions from global passenger cars through 2050 are presented. The analysis indicates that carbon dioxide emissions from global passenger cars were 2810 megatons in 2013, accounting for about 8.7% of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. Under Business-As-Usual scenario, global car sales will more than double by 2050. It is expected that total carbon dioxide emissions will peak in 2020 at 2923 Mt and then decrease to 2297 Mt by 2050. Carbon dioxide emissions from more developed countries will decrease significantly over time. Meanwhile, less developed countries will show great growth. The gap of per capita carbon dioxide emissions between more developed countries and less developed countries will likely shrink rapidly. The Business-As-Usual scenario does not comply with the Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 scenario, which is used as a benchmark of sustainability. Only when major mitigation measures are implemented to their full potentials can the sustainability goals be met. It is recommended that policy instruments should be further strengthened with a focus on less developed countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao, Han & Geng, Yong & Sarkis, Joseph, 2016. "Carbon footprint of global passenger cars: Scenarios through 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 121-131.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:101:y:2016:i:c:p:121-131
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.01.089
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544216300263
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2016.01.089?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hao, Han & Wang, Hewu & Yi, Ran, 2011. "Hybrid modeling of China’s vehicle ownership and projection through 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 1351-1361.
    2. González Palencia, Juan C. & Sakamaki, Tsukasa & Araki, Mikiya & Shiga, Seiichi, 2015. "Impact of powertrain electrification, vehicle size reduction and lightweight materials substitution on energy use, CO2 emissions and cost of a passenger light-duty vehicle fleet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1489-1504.
    3. Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan & Li, Weiqi & Hang, Wen, 2015. "Scenario analysis of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from China's passenger vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 151-159.
    4. Gambhir, Ajay & Tse, Lawrence K.C. & Tong, Danlu & Martinez-Botas, Ricardo, 2015. "Reducing China’s road transport sector CO2 emissions to 2050: Technologies, costs and decomposition analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 905-917.
    5. Ajanovic, Amela & Schipper, Lee & Haas, Reinhard, 2012. "The impact of more efficient but larger new passenger cars on energy consumption in EU-15 countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 346-355.
    6. Meyer, Ina & Kaniovski, Serguei & Scheffran, Jürgen, 2012. "Scenarios for regional passenger car fleets and their CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 66-74.
    7. Ko, Ahyun & Myung, Cha-Lee & Park, Simsoo & Kwon, Sangil, 2014. "Scenario-based CO2 emissions reduction potential and energy use in Republic of Korea’s passenger vehicle fleet," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 346-356.
    8. Wills, William & La Rovere, Emilio Lèbre, 2010. "Light vehicle energy efficiency programs and their impact on Brazilian CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6453-6462, November.
    9. Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
    10. Hao, Han & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2011. "Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6520-6528.
    11. Khaled Ben Abdallah & Mounir Belloumi & Daniel de Wolf, 2015. "International comparisons of energy and environmental efficiency in the road transport sector," Post-Print halshs-02396791, HAL.
    12. González Palencia, Juan C. & Furubayashi, Takaaki & Nakata, Toshihiko, 2012. "Energy use and CO2 emissions reduction potential in passenger car fleet using zero emission vehicles and lightweight materials," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 548-565.
    13. Ben Abdallah, Khaled & Belloumi, Mounir & De Wolf, Daniel, 2015. "International comparisons of energy and environmental efficiency in the road transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2087-2101.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michalina Kamińska & Łukasz Rymaniak & Piotr Lijewski & Natalia Szymlet & Paweł Daszkiewicz & Rafał Grzeszczyk, 2021. "Investigations of Exhaust Emissions from Rail Machinery during Track Maintenance Operations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-12, May.
    2. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2021. "Lithium industry and the U.S. crude oil prices. A fractional cointegration VAR and a Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Hao, Han & Liu, Feiqi & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan, 2016. "Compression ignition of low-octane gasoline: Life cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 391-398.
    4. Manuel Monge & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2020. "The Lithium Industry and Analysis of the Beta Term Structure of Oil Companies," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, December.
    5. da Silva, Samuel Filgueira & Eckert, Jony Javorski & Corrêa, Fernanda Cristina & Silva, Fabrício Leonardo & Silva, Ludmila C.A. & Dedini, Franco Giuseppe, 2022. "Dual HESS electric vehicle powertrain design and fuzzy control based on multi-objective optimization to increase driving range and battery life cycle," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    6. González Palencia, Juan C. & Araki, Mikiya & Shiga, Seiichi, 2016. "Energy, environmental and economic impact of mini-sized and zero-emission vehicle diffusion on a light-duty vehicle fleet," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 96-109.
    7. González Palencia, Juan C. & Otsuka, Yuki & Araki, Mikiya & Shiga, Seiichi, 2017. "Scenario analysis of lightweight and electric-drive vehicle market penetration in the long-term and impact on the light-duty vehicle fleet," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 1444-1462.
    8. Wang, Sinan & Zhao, Fuquan & Liu, Zongwei & Hao, Han, 2018. "Impacts of a super credit policy on electric vehicle penetration and compliance with China's Corporate Average Fuel Consumption regulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 746-762.
    9. Xu Hu & Yisong Chen & Zhensen Ding & Liang Gu, 2019. "Vehicle Optimal Control Design to Meet the 1.5 °C Target: A Control Design Framework for Vehicle Subsystems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-21, August.
    10. Daniele Lerede & Chiara Bustreo & Francesco Gracceva & Yolanda Lechón & Laura Savoldi, 2020. "Analysis of the Effects of Electrification of the Road Transport Sector on the Possible Penetration of Nuclear Fusion in the Long-Term European Energy Mix," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-25, July.
    11. Cai, Yongxia & Woollacott, Jared & Beach, Robert H. & Rafelski, Lauren E. & Ramig, Christopher & Shelby, Michael, 2023. "Insights from adding transportation sector detail into an economy-wide model: The case of the ADAGE CGE model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    12. Wu, Tian & Shen, Qu & Xu, Ming & Peng, Tianduo & Ou, Xunmin, 2018. "Development and application of an energy use and CO2 emissions reduction evaluation model for China's online car hailing services," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 298-307.
    13. Natalia Szymlet & Łukasz Rymaniak & Piotr Lijewski, 2024. "Two-Wheeled Urban Vehicles—A Review of Emissions Test Regulations and Literature," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-20, January.
    14. Radonjič, Gregor & Tompa, Saša, 2018. "Carbon footprint calculation in telecommunications companies – The importance and relevance of scope 3 greenhouse gases emissions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 361-375.
    15. Triantafyllopoulos, Georgios & Kontses, Anastasios & Tsokolis, Dimitrios & Ntziachristos, Leonidas & Samaras, Zissis, 2017. "Potential of energy efficiency technologies in reducing vehicle consumption under type approval and real world conditions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 365-373.
    16. Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan & Geng, Yong & Sarkis, Joseph, 2017. "Material flow analysis of lithium in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 100-106.
    17. Han Hao & Feiqi Liu & Zongwei Liu & Fuquan Zhao, 2017. "Measuring Energy Efficiency in China’s Transport Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, May.
    18. Raymand, Farhang & Ahmadi, Pouria & Mashayekhi, Sina, 2021. "Evaluating a light duty vehicle fleet against climate change mitigation targets under different scenarios up to 2050 on a national level," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    19. Chen, Guang & Kong, Rui & Wang, Yixin, 2020. "Research on the evolution of lithium trade communities based on the complex network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    20. Han Hao & Feiqi Liu & Xin Sun & Zongwei Liu & Fuquan Zhao, 2019. "Quantifying the Energy, Environmental, Economic, Resource Co-Benefits and Risks of GHG Emissions Abatement: The Case of Passenger Vehicles in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-12, March.
    21. Poder, Thomas G. & He, Jie, 2017. "Willingness to pay for a cleaner car: The case of car pollution in Quebec and France," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 48-54.
    22. Blanco, Herib & Faaij, André, 2018. "A review at the role of storage in energy systems with a focus on Power to Gas and long-term storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1049-1086.
    23. Xun, Dengye & Hao, Han & Sun, Xin & Geng, Jingxuan & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan, 2022. "Modeling the evolvement of regional fuel cell vehicle supply chain: Implications for enhancing supply chain sustainability," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. González Palencia, Juan C. & Araki, Mikiya & Shiga, Seiichi, 2016. "Energy, environmental and economic impact of mini-sized and zero-emission vehicle diffusion on a light-duty vehicle fleet," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 96-109.
    2. Peng, Tianduo & Ou, Xunmin & Yuan, Zhiyi & Yan, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Xiliang, 2018. "Development and application of China provincial road transport energy demand and GHG emissions analysis model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 313-328.
    3. González Palencia, Juan C. & Furubayashi, Takaaki & Nakata, Toshihiko, 2014. "Techno-economic assessment of lightweight and zero emission vehicles deployment in the passenger car fleet of developing countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 129-142.
    4. Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan, 2017. "An overview of energy efficiency standards in China's transport sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 246-256.
    5. Hao, Han & Wang, Sinan & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan, 2016. "The impact of stepped fuel economy targets on automaker's light-weighting strategy: The China case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 755-765.
    6. Faria, Ricardo & Marques, Pedro & Moura, Pedro & Freire, Fausto & Delgado, Joaquim & de Almeida, Aníbal T., 2013. "Impact of the electricity mix and use profile in the life-cycle assessment of electric vehicles," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 271-287.
    7. Hao, Han & Liu, Feiqi & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan, 2016. "Compression ignition of low-octane gasoline: Life cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 391-398.
    8. Zhang, Zhao & Jin, Wen & Jiang, Hai & Xie, Qianyan & Shen, Wei & Han, Weijian, 2017. "Modeling heterogeneous vehicle ownership in China: A case study based on the Chinese national survey," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-20.
    9. Galvin, Ray, 2017. "How does speed affect the rebound effect in car travel? Conceptual issues explored in case study of 900 Formula 1 Grand Prix speed trials," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 28-38.
    10. Hao, Han & Geng, Yong & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2014. "Regional disparity of urban passenger transport associated GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in China: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 783-793.
    11. Wang, Sinan & Chen, Kangda & Zhao, Fuquan & Hao, Han, 2019. "Technology pathways for complying with Corporate Average Fuel Consumption regulations up to 2030: A case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 257-277.
    12. Qodri Febrilian Erahman & Nadhilah Reyseliani & Widodo Wahyu Purwanto & Mahmud Sudibandriyo, 2019. "Modeling Future Energy Demand and CO 2 Emissions of Passenger Cars in Indonesia at the Provincial Level," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-25, August.
    13. Zhang, Shaojun & Wu, Ye & Un, Puikei & Fu, Lixin & Hao, Jiming, 2016. "Modeling real-world fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions with high resolution for light-duty passenger vehicles in a traffic populated city," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 461-471.
    14. Saeed Solaymani & Saeed Sharafi, 2021. "A Comparative Study between Government Support and Energy Efficiency in Malaysian Transport," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-15, May.
    15. AlSabbagh, Maha & Siu, Yim Ling & Guehnemann, Astrid & Barrett, John, 2017. "Integrated approach to the assessment of CO2e-mitigation measures for the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 203-215.
    16. Tian Wu & Mengbo Zhang & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-29, November.
    17. Liu, Junling & Yin, Mingjian & Xia-Hou, Qinrui & Wang, Ke & Zou, Ji, 2021. "Comparison of sectoral low-carbon transition pathways in China under the nationally determined contribution and 2 °C targets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    18. Rith, Monorom & Fillone, Alexis M. & Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel M., 2020. "Energy and environmental benefits and policy implications for private passenger vehicles in an emerging metropolis of Southeast Asia – A case study of Metro Manila," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    19. Tian Wu & Hongmei Zhao & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963–2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(8), pages 1-23, August.
    20. Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan & Li, Weiqi, 2016. "Natural gas as vehicle fuel in China: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 521-533.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:101:y:2016:i:c:p:121-131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.