IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v204y2017icp1444-1462.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario analysis of lightweight and electric-drive vehicle market penetration in the long-term and impact on the light-duty vehicle fleet

Author

Listed:
  • González Palencia, Juan C.
  • Otsuka, Yuki
  • Araki, Mikiya
  • Shiga, Seiichi

Abstract

Electric-drive vehicles, including hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, fuel cell electric vehicles and fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles, are emerging as less polluting alternatives to internal combustion engine vehicles. Therefore, it is important to assess their penetration in the vehicle market in the future. A ‘two-step’ approach is used to estimate the optimum market penetration of lightweight and electric-drive vehicles in the long-term and the impact on the light-duty vehicle fleet, focusing on Japan. First, an optimization model is used to estimate the vehicle market composition in 2050. Then, a vehicle stock turnover model is used to estimate light-duty vehicle fleet energy and material consumption, CO2 emissions and cost. Internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles dominate in the Base scenario. Fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles dominate when low cost is prioritized. Shift to battery electric vehicles occurs when low CO2 emissions are prioritized. CO2 emissions are reduced 56.9% between 2012 and 2050 in the Base scenario. Lightweight mini-sized battery electric vehicle diffusion has the largest CO2 emissions reductions, 87.3% compared to the 2050 baseline value; with the net cash flow peaking at 10.2 billion USD/year in 2035 and becoming negative after 2044.

Suggested Citation

  • González Palencia, Juan C. & Otsuka, Yuki & Araki, Mikiya & Shiga, Seiichi, 2017. "Scenario analysis of lightweight and electric-drive vehicle market penetration in the long-term and impact on the light-duty vehicle fleet," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 1444-1462.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:204:y:2017:i:c:p:1444-1462
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.05.054
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261917305226
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.05.054?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peterson, Meghan B. & Barter, Garrett E. & West, Todd H. & Manley, Dawn K., 2014. "A parametric study of light-duty natural gas vehicle competitiveness in the United States through 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 206-217.
    2. Yabe, Kuniaki & Shinoda, Yukio & Seki, Tomomichi & Tanaka, Hideo & Akisawa, Atsushi, 2012. "Market penetration speed and effects on CO2 reduction of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 529-540.
    3. González Palencia, Juan C. & Araki, Mikiya & Shiga, Seiichi, 2016. "Energy, environmental and economic impact of mini-sized and zero-emission vehicle diffusion on a light-duty vehicle fleet," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 96-109.
    4. Pasaoglu, Guzay & Honselaar, Michel & Thiel, Christian, 2012. "Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 404-421.
    5. Leighty, Wayne & Ogden, Joan M. & Yang, Christopher, 2012. "Modeling transitions in the California light-duty vehicles sector to achieve deep reductions in transportation greenhouse gas emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 52-67.
    6. González Palencia, Juan C. & Sakamaki, Tsukasa & Araki, Mikiya & Shiga, Seiichi, 2015. "Impact of powertrain electrification, vehicle size reduction and lightweight materials substitution on energy use, CO2 emissions and cost of a passenger light-duty vehicle fleet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1489-1504.
    7. Lee, Duk Hee & Park, Sang Yong & Hong, Jong Chul & Choi, Sang Jin & Kim, Jong Wook, 2013. "Analysis of the energy and environmental effects of green car deployment by an integrating energy system model with a forecasting model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 306-316.
    8. Hao, Han & Geng, Yong & Sarkis, Joseph, 2016. "Carbon footprint of global passenger cars: Scenarios through 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 121-131.
    9. Hardman, Scott & Shiu, Eric & Steinberger-Wilckens, Robert & Turrentine, Thomas, 2017. "Barriers to the adoption of fuel cell vehicles: A qualitative investigation into early adopters attitudes," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 166-182.
    10. Yan Zhou & Michael Wang & Han Hao & Larry Johnson & Hewu Wang & Han Hao, 2015. "Plug-in electric vehicle market penetration and incentives: a global review," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 777-795, June.
    11. Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan & Li, Weiqi & Hang, Wen, 2015. "Scenario analysis of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from China's passenger vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 151-159.
    12. Lee, Yongseung & Kim, Chongman & Shin, Juneseuk, 2016. "A hybrid electric vehicle market penetration model to identify the best policy mix: A consumer ownership cycle approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 438-449.
    13. Offer, G.J. & Contestabile, M. & Howey, D.A. & Clague, R. & Brandon, N.P., 2011. "Techno-economic and behavioural analysis of battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1939-1950, April.
    14. Zheng, Bo & Zhang, Qiang & Borken-Kleefeld, Jens & Huo, Hong & Guan, Dabo & Klimont, Zbigniew & Peters, Glen P. & He, Kebin, 2015. "How will greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles be constrained in China around 2030?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 230-240.
    15. Sierzchula, William & Bakker, Sjoerd & Maat, Kees & van Wee, Bert, 2014. "The influence of financial incentives and other socio-economic factors on electric vehicle adoption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 183-194.
    16. Tran, Martino & Banister, David & Bishop, Justin D.K. & McCulloch, Malcolm D., 2013. "Simulating early adoption of alternative fuel vehicles for sustainability," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(5), pages 865-875.
    17. Kloess, Maximilian & Müller, Andreas, 2011. "Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria--A model based analysis 2010-2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5045-5062, September.
    18. Oshiro, Ken & Masui, Toshihiko, 2015. "Diffusion of low emission vehicles and their impact on CO2 emission reduction in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 215-225.
    19. Hoogvliet, T.W. & Litjens, G.B.M.A. & van Sark, W.G.J.H.M., 2017. "Provision of regulating- and reserve power by electric vehicle owners in the Dutch market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1008-1019.
    20. Park, Sang Yong & Kim, Jong Wook & Lee, Duk Hee, 2011. "Development of a market penetration forecasting model for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3307-3315, June.
    21. Hao, Han & Ou, Xunmin & Du, Jiuyu & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2014. "China’s electric vehicle subsidy scheme: Rationale and impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 722-732.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yong & Jiang, Yunjian & Rui, Weina & Thompson, Russell G., 2019. "Analyzing truck fleets’ acceptance of alternative fuel freight vehicles in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 1148-1155.
    2. Yanmei Li & Ningning Ha & Tingting Li, 2019. "Research on Carbon Emissions of Electric Vehicles throughout the Life Cycle Assessment Taking into Vehicle Weight and Grid Mix Composition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-15, September.
    3. Anqi Chen & Shibing You & Huan Liu & Jiaxuan Zhu & Xu Peng, 2023. "A Sustainable Road Transport Decarbonisation: The Scenario Analysis of New Energy Vehicle in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-18, February.
    4. Ziru Feng & Tian Cai & Kangli Xiang & Chenxi Xiang & Lei Hou, 2019. "Evaluating the Impact of Fossil Fuel Vehicle Exit on the Oil Demand in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-18, July.
    5. Li, Wenbo & Long, Ruyin & Chen, Hong & Yang, Tong & Geng, Jichao & Yang, Muyi, 2018. "Effects of personal carbon trading on the decision to adopt battery electric vehicles: Analysis based on a choice experiment in Jiangsu, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 478-488.
    6. Di Trolio, P. & Di Giorgio, P. & Genovese, M. & Frasci, E. & Minutillo, M., 2020. "A hybrid power-unit based on a passive fuel cell/battery system for lightweight vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    7. Zhang, Haoran & Song, Xuan & Xia, Tianqi & Yuan, Meng & Fan, Zipei & Shibasaki, Ryosuke & Liang, Yongtu, 2018. "Battery electric vehicles in Japan: Human mobile behavior based adoption potential analysis and policy target response," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 527-535.
    8. Trancho, E. & Ibarra, E. & Arias, A. & Kortabarria, I. & Prieto, P. & Martínez de Alegría, I. & Andreu, J. & López, I., 2018. "Sensorless control strategy for light-duty EVs and efficiency loss evaluation of high frequency injection under standardized urban driving cycles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 647-658.
    9. Knüpfer, Kristina & Mäll, Martin & Esteban, Miguel & Shibayama, Tomoya, 2021. "Review of mixed-technology vehicle fleet evolution and representation in modelling studies: Policy contexts of Germany and Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    10. Li, Danyang & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "TIMES modeling of the large-scale popularization of electric vehicles under the worldwide prohibition of liquid vehicle sales," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    11. Ou, Shiqi & Lin, Zhenhong & Qi, Liang & Li, Jie & He, Xin & Przesmitzki, Steven, 2018. "The dual-credit policy: Quantifying the policy impact on plug-in electric vehicle sales and industry profits in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 597-610.
    12. Tao Wang & Kai Zhang & Keliang Liu & Keke Ding & Wenwen Qin, 2023. "Spatial Heterogeneity and Scale Effects of Transportation Carbon Emission-Influencing Factors—An Empirical Analysis Based on 286 Cities in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-17, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. González Palencia, Juan C. & Araki, Mikiya & Shiga, Seiichi, 2016. "Energy, environmental and economic impact of mini-sized and zero-emission vehicle diffusion on a light-duty vehicle fleet," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 96-109.
    2. AlSabbagh, Maha & Siu, Yim Ling & Guehnemann, Astrid & Barrett, John, 2017. "Integrated approach to the assessment of CO2e-mitigation measures for the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 203-215.
    3. Watabe, Akihiro & Leaver, Jonathan & Ishida, Hiroyuki & Shafiei, Ehsan, 2019. "Impact of low emissions vehicles on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 227-242.
    4. González Palencia, Juan C. & Sakamaki, Tsukasa & Araki, Mikiya & Shiga, Seiichi, 2015. "Impact of powertrain electrification, vehicle size reduction and lightweight materials substitution on energy use, CO2 emissions and cost of a passenger light-duty vehicle fleet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1489-1504.
    5. Wang, Sinan & Zhao, Fuquan & Liu, Zongwei & Hao, Han, 2018. "Impacts of a super credit policy on electric vehicle penetration and compliance with China's Corporate Average Fuel Consumption regulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 746-762.
    6. González Palencia, Juan C. & Furubayashi, Takaaki & Nakata, Toshihiko, 2014. "Techno-economic assessment of lightweight and zero emission vehicles deployment in the passenger car fleet of developing countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 129-142.
    7. Liu, Dunnan & Xiao, Bowen, 2018. "Exploring the development of electric vehicles under policy incentives: A scenario-based system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 8-23.
    8. Hao, Han & Liu, Feiqi & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan, 2016. "Compression ignition of low-octane gasoline: Life cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 391-398.
    9. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Abrahamse, Wokje & Zhang, Long & Ren, Jingzheng, 2019. "Pleasure or profit? Surveying the purchasing intentions of potential electric vehicle adopters in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 69-81.
    10. Zhu, Lijing & Wang, Peize & Zhang, Qi, 2019. "Indirect network effects in China’s electric vehicle diffusion under phasing out subsidies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Lee, Yongseung & Kim, Chongman & Shin, Juneseuk, 2016. "A hybrid electric vehicle market penetration model to identify the best policy mix: A consumer ownership cycle approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 438-449.
    12. Ranjit R. Desai & Eric Hittinger & Eric Williams, 2022. "Interaction of Consumer Heterogeneity and Technological Progress in the US Electric Vehicle Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-25, June.
    13. Harrison, Gillian & Thiel, Christian, 2017. "An exploratory policy analysis of electric vehicle sales competition and sensitivity to infrastructure in Europe," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 165-178.
    14. Alam, Md. Saniul & Hyde, Bernard & Duffy, Paul & McNabola, Aonghus, 2017. "Assessment of pathways to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger car fleets: Case study in Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 283-300.
    15. Thomas J.T. Van der Wardt & Amro M. Farid, 2017. "A Hybrid Dynamic System Assessment Methodology for Multi-Modal Transportation-Electrification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-25, May.
    16. Han Hao & Feiqi Liu & Zongwei Liu & Fuquan Zhao, 2017. "Measuring Energy Efficiency in China’s Transport Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, May.
    17. Kong, Deyang & Xia, Quhong & Xue, Yixi & Zhao, Xin, 2020. "Effects of multi policies on electric vehicle diffusion under subsidy policy abolishment in China: A multi-actor perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    18. Gnann, Till & Stephens, Thomas S. & Lin, Zhenhong & Plötz, Patrick & Liu, Changzheng & Brokate, Jens, 2018. "What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? - A review of international PEV market diffusion models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 158-164.
    19. Du, Jiuyu & Ouyang, Danhua, 2017. "Progress of Chinese electric vehicles industrialization in 2015: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 529-546.
    20. Elena Higueras-Castillo & Sebastian Molinillo & J. Andres Coca-Stefaniak & Francisco Liébana-Cabanillas, 2020. "Potential Early Adopters of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles in Spain—Towards a Customer Profile," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-18, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:204:y:2017:i:c:p:1444-1462. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.