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Were the hydro dams financed by the World Bank from 1976 to 2005 worthwhile?

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  • Awojobi, Omotola
  • Jenkins, Glenn P.

Abstract

Because hydro dams are complex to design and usually involve long-term planning, they are particularly susceptible to cost and time overruns. The controversy surrounding their development remains an unresolved issue in the energy policy debate. This study re-examines the cost issues associated with a portfolio of 58 dams that were financed by the World Bank from 1976 to 2005. Further, an estimate is made of the value of the benefits produced by these investments to determine the magnitude of economic rates of return for the individual projects and the overall portfolio of dams. Even though this portfolio of dams suffered substantially from cost overruns, the net contribution of these dams has been positive and substantial. The ex-post real economic rate of return for the entire portfolio is estimated to be greater than 17 percent. The important policy implication of this study is that each investment in a hydro dam needs to be appraised taking into consideration the distribution and probabilities of costs that might be incurred, as well as the potential benefits. Adequate margins must exist of ex-ante benefits over costs to account for the risks of cost overruns.

Suggested Citation

  • Awojobi, Omotola & Jenkins, Glenn P., 2015. "Were the hydro dams financed by the World Bank from 1976 to 2005 worthwhile?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 222-232.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:86:y:2015:i:c:p:222-232
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.06.040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chris Head, 2000. "Financing of Private Hydropower Projects," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15190, December.
    2. Ansar, Atif & Flyvbjerg, Bent & Budzier, Alexander & Lunn, Daniel, 2014. "Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 43-56.
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    5. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Dhakal, Saroj & Gippner, Olivia & Bambawale, Malavika Jain, 2011. "Halting hydro: A review of the socio-technical barriers to hydroelectric power plants in Nepal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3468-3476.
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    1. Ayobami Solomon Oyewo & Javier Farfan & Pasi Peltoniemi & Christian Breyer, 2018. "Repercussion of Large Scale Hydro Dam Deployment: The Case of Congo Grand Inga Hydro Project," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-30, April.
    2. P. Urgilés & J. Claver & M. A. Sebastián, 2019. "Analysis of the Earned Value Management and Earned Schedule Techniques in Complex Hydroelectric Power Production Projects: Cost and Time Forecast," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-11, April.
    3. Oyewo, Ayobami Solomon & Solomon, A.A. & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Aghahosseini, Arman & Mensah, Theophilus Nii Odai & Ram, Manish & Breyer, Christian, 2021. "Just transition towards defossilised energy systems for developing economies: A case study of Ethiopia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 346-365.
    4. Jenkins, G. & Olasehinde-Williams, G. & Baurzhan, S., 2022. "Is there a net economic loss from employing reference class forecasting in the appraisal of hydropower projects?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    5. Anuja Shaktawat & Shelly Vadhera, 2021. "Risk management of hydropower projects for sustainable development: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 45-76, January.
    6. A. Richard Swanson & Vivek Sakhrani, 2023. "Value–Risk Calculator for Blended Finance: A Systems Perspective of the Nachtigal Hydropower Project," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-22, June.
    7. Awojobi, Omotola & Jenkins, Glenn P., 2016. "Managing the cost overrun risks of hydroelectric dams: An application of reference class forecasting techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 19-32.
    8. Kirchherr, Julian & Ahrenshop, Mats-Philip & Charles, Katrina, 2019. "Resettlement lies: Suggestive evidence from 29 large dam projects," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 208-219.
    9. Callegari, C. & Szklo, A. & Schaeffer, R., 2018. "Cost overruns and delays in energy megaprojects: How big is big enough?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 211-220.
    10. Saule Baurzhan & Glenn P. Jenkins & Godwin O. Olasehinde-Williams, 2021. "The Economic Performance of Hydropower Dams Supported by the World Bank Group, 1975–2015," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-22, May.
    11. Glenn P. Jenkins & Saule Baurzhan & Author-Name: Godwin O-Williams, 2018. "Evaluation of the Economic Performance of Hydropower Developments Supported by the World Bank Group 1975 to 2015," Development Discussion Papers 2018-06, JDI Executive Programs.
    12. Saule Baurzhan & Glenn Jenkins & Godwin O. Olasehinde-Williams, 2021. "The Economic Performance of Hydropower Dams Supported by the World Bank Group, 1975–2015," Working Paper 1463, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    13. Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin & Jenkins, Glenn P., 2023. "A Test of Hirschman’s Hiding Hand Principle in World Bank-Financed Hydropower Projects," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 298-317, July.
    14. Pessino, Carola & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2018. "Better Spending for Better Lives: How Latin America and the Caribbean Can Do More with Less," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 9152.
    15. Love, Peter E.D. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D., 2019. "On de-bunking ‘fake news’ in a post truth era: Why does the Planning Fallacy explanation for cost overruns fall short?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 397-408.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dams; Hydropower; Cost overrun; Investment appraisal; Energy policy; World Bank;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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