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The heavy-duty vehicle future in the United States: A parametric analysis of technology and policy tradeoffs

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  • Askin, Amanda C.
  • Barter, Garrett E.
  • West, Todd H.
  • Manley, Dawn K.

Abstract

We present a parametric analysis of factors that can influence advanced fuel and technology deployments in U.S. Class 7–8 trucks through 2050. The analysis focuses on the competition between traditional diesel trucks, natural gas vehicles (NGVs), and ultra-efficient powertrains. Underlying the study is a vehicle choice and stock model of the U.S. heavy-duty vehicle market. The model is segmented by vehicle class, body type, powertrain, fleet size, and operational type. We find that conventional diesel trucks will dominate the market through 2050, but NGVs could have significant market penetration depending on key technological and economic uncertainties. Compressed natural gas trucks conducting urban trips in fleets that can support private infrastructure are economically viable now and will continue to gain market share. Ultra-efficient diesel trucks, exemplified by the U.S. Department of Energy's SuperTruck program, are the preferred alternative in the long haul segment, but could compete with liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks if the fuel price differential between LNG and diesel increases. However, the greatest impact in reducing petroleum consumption and pollutant emissions is had by investing in efficiency technologies that benefit all powertrains, especially the conventional diesels that comprise the majority of the stock, instead of incentivizing specific alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Askin, Amanda C. & Barter, Garrett E. & West, Todd H. & Manley, Dawn K., 2015. "The heavy-duty vehicle future in the United States: A parametric analysis of technology and policy tradeoffs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:81:y:2015:i:c:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeroen Struben & John D. Sterman, 2008. "Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems," Post-Print hal-02312277, HAL.
    2. Yeh, Sonia, 2007. "An empirical analysis on the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles: The case of natural gas vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5865-5875, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Gerber Machado & Ana Carolina Rodrigues Teixeira & Flavia Mendes de Almeida Collaço & Adam Hawkes & Dominique Mouette, 2020. "Assessment of Greenhouse Gases and Pollutant Emissions in the Road Freight Transport Sector: A Case Study for São Paulo State, Brazil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-26, October.
    2. Kurani, Kenneth S & Miller, Marshall & Sugihara, Claire & Stepnitz, Eli-Alston & Nesbitt, Kevin A, 2023. "Determinants of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Truck Fleet Turnover," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt20n8n4mb, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    3. Flávia Mendes de Almeida Collaço & Ana Carolina Rodrigues Teixeira & Pedro Gerber Machado & Raquel Rocha Borges & Thiago Luis Felipe Brito & Dominique Mouette, 2022. "Road Freight Transport Literature and the Achievements of the Sustainable Development Goals—A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, March.
    4. Imran Khan, Muhammad, 2017. "Policy options for the sustainable development of natural gas as transportation fuel," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 126-136.
    5. Fontaras, Georgios & Grigoratos, Theodoros & Savvidis, Dimitrios & Anagnostopoulos, Konstantinos & Luz, Raphael & Rexeis, Martin & Hausberger, Stefan, 2016. "An experimental evaluation of the methodology proposed for the monitoring and certification of CO2 emissions from heavy-duty vehicles in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 354-364.
    6. Pedro G. Machado & Ana C. R. Teixeira & Flavia M. A. Collaço & Dominique Mouette, 2021. "Review of life cycle greenhouse gases, air pollutant emissions and costs of road medium and heavy‐duty trucks," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(4), July.
    7. Juan C. González Palencia & Van Tuan Nguyen & Mikiya Araki & Seiichi Shiga, 2020. "The Role of Powertrain Electrification in Achieving Deep Decarbonization in Road Freight Transport," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-24, May.
    8. Qian Zhao & Wenke Huang & Mingwei Hu & Xiaoxiao Xu & Wenlin Wu, 2021. "Characterizing the Economic and Environmental Benefits of LNG Heavy-Duty Trucks: A Case Study in Shenzhen, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-18, December.
    9. James J. Winebrake & James J. Corbett & Fatima Umar & Daniel Yuska, 2019. "Pollution Tradeoffs for Conventional and Natural Gas-Based Marine Fuels," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, April.

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