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A system dynamics model for analyzing energy consumption and CO2 emission in Iranian cement industry under various production and export scenarios

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  • Ansari, Nastaran
  • Seifi, Abbas
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    Abstract

    Cement industry is one of the six energy intensive industries in Iran accounting for 15% of total energy consumption in the industrial sector. The sudden reform of energy prices in Iran is expected to have a great impact on production and energy consumption in this industry. In this paper, we present a system dynamics model to analyze energy consumption and CO2 emission in Iranian cement industry under various production and export scenarios. We consider new energy prices to estimate possible energy demand by this industry over next 20 years. The model includes demand for cement, production, energy consumption and CO2 emission in an integrated framework with emphasis on direct natural gas consumption. Producing blended cement, production using waste materials as alternative fuel, and wasted heat recovery for electricity generation in cement industry are three main corrective policies simulated and discussed herein. Simulation result show that complete removal of energy subsidy and implementation of corrective policies in the cement industry could potentially lead to reductions of 29% and 21%, respectively in natural gas and electricity consumptions and 22% reduction in CO2 emission.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 58 (2013)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 75-89

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:58:y:2013:i:c:p:75-89

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Cement industry; Energy consumption; System dynamics;

    References

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    1. Mikulčić, Hrvoje & Vujanović, Milan & Fidaros, Dimitris K. & Priesching, Peter & Minić, Ivica & Tatschl, Reinhard & Duić, Neven & Stefanović, Gordana, 2012. "The application of CFD modelling to support the reduction of CO2 emissions in cement industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 464-473.
    2. Kiani, Behdad & Ali Pourfakhraei, Mohammad, 2010. "A system dynamic model for production and consumption policy in Iran oil and gas sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7764-7774, December.
    3. Ke, Jing & Zheng, Nina & Fridley, David & Price, Lynn & Zhou, Nan, 2012. "Potential energy savings and CO2 emissions reduction of China's cement industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 739-751.
    4. Pardo, Nicolás & Moya, José Antonio & Mercier, Arnaud, 2011. "Prospective on the energy efficiency and CO2 emissions in the EU cement industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3244-3254.
    5. Riccardi, R. & Oggioni, G. & Toninelli, R., 2012. "Efficiency analysis of world cement industry in presence of undesirable output: Application of data envelopment analysis and directional distance function," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 140-152.
    6. Xu, Jin-Hua & Fleiter, Tobias & Eichhammer, Wolfgang & Fan, Ying, 2012. "Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China's cement industry: A perspective from LMDI decomposition analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 821-832.
    7. Szabo, Laszlo & Hidalgo, Ignacio & Ciscar, Juan Carlos & Soria, Antonio, 2006. "CO2 emission trading within the European Union and Annex B countries: the cement industry case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 72-87, January.
    8. Hasanbeigi, Ali & Menke, Christoph & Therdyothin, Apichit, 2010. "The use of conservation supply curves in energy policy and economic analysis: The case study of Thai cement industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 392-405, January.
    9. Mandal, Sabuj Kumar, 2010. "Do undesirable output and environmental regulation matter in energy efficiency analysis? Evidence from Indian Cement Industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6076-6083, October.
    10. Oggioni, G. & Riccardi, R. & Toninelli, R., 2011. "Eco-efficiency of the world cement industry: A data envelopment analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2842-2854, May.
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