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A system dynamics analysis of technology, cost and policy that affect the market competition of shale gas in China

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  • Yunna, Wu
  • Kaifeng, Chen
  • Yisheng, Yang
  • Tiantian, Feng

Abstract

In order to ease environment pressure and alleviate the scarce problem of energy, Chinese government has begun to exploit and develop shale gas (SG) since 2009. However, the formation of competitive market is bristled with difficulties, due to its infancy, imperfect and lack of standardization. This paper firstly analyzes the status quo of technology, policy, cost, and competition of SG industry in China. Then a system dynamics (SD) model is built to show various trends of Chinese SG industry under different scenarios, which shows that technology, policy and cost all have effects on competitiveness. At last, the simulations reveal that the number of competitors in Chinese SG industry will arrive at its peak from 2019 to 2020. The corresponding recommendations have been presented: Chinese government should pay more attention on the perfection of laws and regulations of SG industry. And competitors should focus on increasing R&D investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunna, Wu & Kaifeng, Chen & Yisheng, Yang & Tiantian, Feng, 2015. "A system dynamics analysis of technology, cost and policy that affect the market competition of shale gas in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 235-243.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:45:y:2015:i:c:p:235-243
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.01.060
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zhao, Rui & Zhou, Xiao & Han, Jiaojie & Liu, Chengliang, 2016. "For the sustainable performance of the carbon reduction labeling policies under an evolutionary game simulation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 262-274.
    3. Hendalianpour, Ayad & Liu, Peide & Amirghodsi, Sirous & Hamzehlou, Mohammad, 2022. "Designing a System Dynamics model to simulate criteria affecting oil and gas development contracts," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Yilun Luo & Esmaeil Ahmadi & Benjamin C. McLellan & Tetsuo Tezuka, 2022. "Will Capacity Mechanisms Conflict with Carbon Pricing?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-25, December.
    5. Wang, Hui & Chen, Li & Qu, Zhiguo & Yin, Ying & Kang, Qinjun & Yu, Bo & Tao, Wen-Quan, 2020. "Modeling of multi-scale transport phenomena in shale gas production — A critical review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).

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