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CO2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry: A scenario analysis using system dynamics model

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  • Li, Qiang
  • Zhang, Wenjuan
  • Li, Huiquan
  • He, Peng

Abstract

China announced its promise on CO2 emission peak. When and what level of CO2 emission peak China's primary aluminum industry will reach is in suspense. In this paper, a system dynamic model is established, with five subsystems of economy development, primary aluminum production, secondary aluminum production, CO2 emission intensity and policies making involved. The model is applied to examine potential CO2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry in next fifteen years with three scenarios of “no new policies”, “13th five-year plan” and “additional policies”. Simulation results imply that: merely relying on rapid expansion of domestic scarps recycling and reuse could not mitigate CO2 emission continuously. Combination of energy-saving technology application and electrolytic technology innovation, as well as promoting hydropower utilization in primary aluminum industry are necessary for long term low-carbon development. From a global prospective, enhancing international cooperation on new primary aluminum capacity construction in other countries, especially with rich low-carbon energy, could bring about essential CO2 emission for both China's and global primary aluminum industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Qiang & Zhang, Wenjuan & Li, Huiquan & He, Peng, 2017. "CO2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry: A scenario analysis using system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 225-235.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:105:y:2017:i:c:p:225-235
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.02.046
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    3. Li, Yun & Yue, Qiang & He, Junhao & Zhao, Feng & Wang, Heming, 2020. "When will the arrival of China's secondary aluminum era?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Sheng Zhou & Alun Gu & Qing Tong & Yuefeng Guo & Xinyang Wei, 2022. "Multi‐scenario simulation on reducing CO2 emissions from China's major manufacturing industries targeting 2060," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(3), pages 850-861, June.
    5. Yu, Biying & Zhao, Zihao & Zhang, Shuai & An, Runying & Chen, Jingming & Li, Ru & Zhao, Guangpu, 2021. "Technological development pathway for a low-carbon primary aluminum industry in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    6. Guangyue Xu & Juanjuan Li & Peter M. Schwarz & Hualiu Yang & Huiying Chang, 2022. "Rural financial development and achieving an agricultural carbon emissions peak: an empirical analysis of Henan Province, China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(11), pages 12936-12962, November.
    7. Zhong, Mei-Rui & Xiao, Shun-Li & Zou, Han & Zhang, Yi-Jun & Song, Yi, 2021. "The effects of technical change on carbon intensity in China’s non-ferrous metal industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Mostafaeipour, Ali & Bidokhti, Abbas & Fakhrzad, Mohammad-Bagher & Sadegheih, Ahmad & Zare Mehrjerdi, Yahia, 2022. "A new model for the use of renewable electricity to reduce carbon dioxide emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    9. Li, Shupeng & Niu, Liping & Yue, Qiang & Zhang, Tingan, 2022. "Trajectory, driving forces, and mitigation potential of energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's primary aluminum industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    10. Akhil Kunche & Bożena Mielczarek, 2021. "Application of System Dynamic Modelling for Evaluation of Carbon Mitigation Strategies in Cement Industries: A Comparative Overview of the Current State of the Art," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, March.
    11. Tang, Lei & Guo, Jue & Zhao, Boyang & Wang, Xiuli & Shao, Chengcheng & Wang, Yifei, 2021. "Power generation mix evolution based on rolling horizon optimal approach: A system dynamics analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    12. Yingyi Huang & Yuliya Mamatok & Chun Jin, 2021. "Decision-making instruments for container seaport sustainable development: management platform and system dynamics model," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 212-226, June.

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