China's soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?
AbstractChina's vehicle population is widely forecasted to grow 6-11% per year into the foreseeable future. Barring aggressive policy intervention or a collapse of the Chinese economy, we suggest that those forecasts are conservative. We analyze the historical vehicle growth patterns of seven of the largest vehicle producing countries at comparable times in their motorization history. We estimate vehicle growth rates for this analogous group of countries to have 13-17% per year--roughly twice the rate forecasted for China by others. Applying these higher growth rates to China results in the total vehicle fleet reaching considerably higher volumes than forecasted by others, implying far higher global oil use and carbon emissions than projected by the International Energy Agency and others.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.
Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
Issue (Month): 6 (June)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol
China Vehicle projection Transport oil demand;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2010.
"The Developing World Is Poorer Than We Thought, but No Less Successful in the Fight Against Poverty,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1577-1625, November.
- Chen, Shaohua & Ravallion, Martin, 2008. "The developing world is poorer than we thought, but no less successful in the fight against poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4703, The World Bank.
- Marcos Chamon & Paolo Mauro & Yohei Okawa, 2008. "Mass car ownership in the emerging market giants," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 23, pages 243-296, 04.
- Peter H. Kobos & Jon D. Erickson & Thomas E. Drennen, 2003. "Scenario Analysis of Chinese Passenger Vehicle Growth," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(2), pages 200-217, 04.
- William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2010. "Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, May 2010," Policy Briefs PB10-15, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Sperling, Daniel & Gordon, Deborah, 2009. "Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195376647, September.
- Rawski, Thomas G., 2001. "What is happening to China's GDP statistics?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 347-354.
- Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1999. "Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 101-138, February.
- Christophe Van den Bulte & Stefan Stremersch, 2004. "Social Contagion and Income Heterogeneity in New Product Diffusion: A Meta-Analytic Test," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 530-544, July.
- Lee, Kiseok & Ni, Shawn, 2002. "On the dynamic effects of oil price shocks: a study using industry level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 823-852, May.
- Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
- Liu, Wen & Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2013. "Modelling the transport system in China and evaluating the current strategies towards the sustainable transport development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 347-357.
- Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia & Zeng, Jieyin (Jean), 2013. "The elasticity of demand for gasoline in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 189-197.
- Liu, Yang & Wang, Yu & Huo, Hong, 2013. "Temporal and spatial variations in on-road energy use and CO2 emissions in China, 1978–2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 544-550.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.