IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/ecpoli/v23y2008i54p244-296..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mass car ownership in the emerging market giants
[‘Petroleum taxes’]

Author

Listed:
  • Marcos Chamon
  • Paolo Mauro
  • Yohei Okawa

Abstract

The typical urban household in China owns a TV, a refrigerator, a washing machine, and a computer, but does not yet own a car. In this paper, we draw on data for a panel of countries and detailed household level surveys for the largest emerging markets to document a remarkably stable relationship between GDP per capita and car ownership, highlighting the importance of within-country income distribution factors: we find that car ownership is low up to per capita incomes of about US$5000 and then takes off very rapidly. Several emerging markets, including India and China, the most populous countries in the world, are currently at the stage of development when such takeoff is expected to take place. We project that the number of cars will increase by 2.3 billion between 2005 and 2050, with an increase by 1.9 billion in emerging market and developing countries. We outline a number of possible policy options to deal with the implications for the countries affected and the world as a whole.— Marcos Chamon, Paolo Mauro and Yohei Okawa

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Chamon & Paolo Mauro & Yohei Okawa, 2008. "Mass car ownership in the emerging market giants [‘Petroleum taxes’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(54), pages 244-296.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecpoli:v:23:y:2008:i:54:p:244-296.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2008.00201.x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Charles & Zhu, Yiliang & Lu, Rongzhu & He, Ren & Xia, Zhaolin, 2012. "Perceptions and aspirations for car ownership among Chinese students attending two universities in the Yangtze Delta, China," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 315-323.
    2. Qian, Lixian & Soopramanien, Didier, 2014. "Using diffusion models to forecast market size in emerging markets with applications to the Chinese car market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(6), pages 1226-1232.
    3. Doucette, Reed T. & McCulloch, Malcolm D., 2011. "Modeling the CO2 emissions from battery electric vehicles given the power generation mixes of different countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 803-811, February.
    4. S. R. Milyakin, 2023. "Motorization: History, Factors and Patterns," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 254-262, April.
    5. Doucette, Reed T. & McCulloch, Malcolm D., 2011. "Modeling the prospects of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to reduce CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(7), pages 2315-2323, July.
    6. Tomas Hellebrandt & Paolo Mauro, 2015. "The Future of Worldwide Income Distribution," LIS Working papers 635, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    7. Choudhary, Ravi & Vasudevan, Vinod, 2017. "Study of vehicle ownership for urban and rural households in India," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 52-58.
    8. Chen, Yan & Lu, Fangwen & Zhang, Jinan, 2017. "Social comparisons, status and driving behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 11-20.
    9. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2020. "The Influence of the Spread of Automatic Control and Sharing Technologies on Motorization Processes: Concept, Calculation Scheme, Forecast," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 254-263, May.
    10. Wadud, Zia, 2020. "The effects of e-ridehailing on motorcycle ownership in an emerging-country megacity," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 301-312.
    11. Yang Li & Shiyu Huang & Yanhui Liu & Yiyi Ju, 2021. "Recycling Potential of Plastic Resources from End-of-Life Passenger Vehicles in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-15, September.
    12. Lei Yang & Caixia Hao & Yina Chai, 2018. "Life Cycle Assessment of Commercial Delivery Trucks: Diesel, Plug-In Electric, and Battery-Swap Electric," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-21, December.
    13. Nobuhiro Sanko, 2018. "Travel demand forecasts improved by using cross-sectional data from multiple time points: enhancing their quality by linkage to gross domestic product," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 905-918, May.
    14. He, Sylvia Y. & Thøgersen, John, 2017. "The impact of attitudes and perceptions on travel mode choice and car ownership in a Chinese megacity: The case of Guangzhou," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 57-67.
    15. Wang, Yunshi & Teter, Jacob & Sperling, Daniel, 2011. "China's soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3296-3306, June.
    16. Iimi,Atsushi, 2021. "Firm Productivity and Locational Choice : Evidence from Mozambique," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9727, The World Bank.
    17. Lian Lian & Wen Tian & Hongfeng Xu & Menglan Zheng, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Passenger Car Ownership Based on Symbolic Regression," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-16, July.
    18. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2018. "The Automobilization Process and Its Determining Factors in the Past, Present, and Future," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 406-414, July.
    19. Yang, Zhenshan & Jia, Peng & Liu, Weidong & Yin, Hongchun, 2017. "Car ownership and urban development in Chinese cities: A panel data analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 127-134.
    20. Tomas Hellebrandt & Paolo Mauro, 2015. "World on the Move: The Changing Global Income Distribution and Its Implications for Consumption Patterns and Public Policies," Policy Briefs PB15-21, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:ecpoli:v:23:y:2008:i:54:p:244-296.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cebruuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.