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Global energy crunch: How different parts of the world would react to a peak oil scenario

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  • Friedrichs, Jörg
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    Abstract

    Peak oil theory predicts that oil production will soon start a terminal decline. Most authors imply that no adequate alternate resource and technology will be available to replace oil as the backbone resource of industrial society. This article uses historical cases from countries that have gone through a similar experience as the best available analytical strategy to understand what will happen if the predictions of peak oil theorists are right. The author is not committed to a particular version of peak oil theory, but deems the issue important enough to explore how various parts of the world should be expected to react. From the historical record he is able to identify predatory militarism, totalitarian retrenchment, and socioeconomic adaptation as three possible trajectories.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 8 (August)
    Pages: 4562-4569

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:8:p:4562-4569

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Peak oil Supply disruption Energy scarcity;

    References

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    1. Roger Bentley & Godfrey Boyle, 2008. "Global oil production: forecasts and methodologies," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 35(4), pages 609-626, July.
    2. Brandt, Adam R., 2007. "Testing Hubbert," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 3074-3088, May.
    3. Daniel Goodkind & Loraine West, 2001. "The North Korean Famine and Its Demographic Impact," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(2), pages 219-238.
    4. Lin, Bo-qiang & Liu, Jiang-hua, 2010. "Estimating coal production peak and trends of coal imports in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 512-519, January.
    5. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
    6. Hirsch, Robert L., 2008. "Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 881-889, February.
    7. Moriarty, Patrick & Honnery, Damon, 2009. "What energy levels can the Earth sustain?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2469-2474, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Fantazzini, Dean & Hook, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," MPRA Paper 33825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Tverberg, Gail E., 2013. "An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 542-551.
    3. Ayres, Robert U. & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M. & Lindenberger, Dietmar & Warr, Benjamin, 2013. "The underestimated contribution of energy to economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 79-88.
    4. Ali Mirchi & Saeed Hadian & Kaveh Madani & Omid M. Rouhani & Azadeh M. Rouhani, 2012. " World Energy Balance Outlook and OPEC Production Capacity: Implications for Global Oil Security," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(8), pages 2626-2651, July.
    5. Wicker, Pamela & Becken, Susanne, 2013. "Conscientious vs. ambivalent consumers: Do concerns about energy availability and climate change influence consumer behaviour?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 41-48.

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