IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v52y2015ipap1-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Science and the stock market: Investors' recognition of unburnable carbon

Author

Listed:
  • Griffin, Paul A.
  • Jaffe, Amy Myers
  • Lont, David H.
  • Dominguez-Faus, Rosa

Abstract

This paper documents the stock market's reaction to a 2009 paper in the Nature journal of science, which concluded that only a fraction of the world's existing oil, gas, and coal reserves could be emitted if global warming by 2050 were not to exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This Nature article is now one of the most cited environmental science studies in recent years. Our analysis indicates that this publication prompted an average stock price drop of 1.5% to 2% for our sample of the 63 largest U.S. oil and gas firms. Later, in 2012–2013, the press “discovered” this article, writing hundreds of stories on the grim consequences of unburnable carbon for fossil fuel companies. We show only a small negative reaction to these later stories, mostly in the two weeks following their publication. This limited market response contrasts with the predictions of some analysts and commentators of a substantial decline in the shareholder value of fossil fuel companies from a carbon bubble. Our paper discusses possible reasons for this discrepancy.

Suggested Citation

  • Griffin, Paul A. & Jaffe, Amy Myers & Lont, David H. & Dominguez-Faus, Rosa, 2015. "Science and the stock market: Investors' recognition of unburnable carbon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:52:y:2015:i:pa:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.08.028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988315002546
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.08.028?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bauer, Nico & Bosetti, Valentina & Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem & Kitous, Alban & McCollum, David & Méjean, Aurélie & Rao, Shilpa & Turton, Hal & Paroussos, Leonidas & Ashina, Shuichi & Calvin, Katherine & Wa, 2015. "CO2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 243-256.
    2. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    3. Verrecchia, Robert E., 2001. "Essays on disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-3), pages 97-180, December.
    4. John Elder & Apostolos Serletis, 2010. "Oil Price Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1137-1159, September.
    5. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    6. Stephen R. Hill & Norman H. Moore & Stephen W. Pruitt, 1991. "Cold fusion—hot metal: An analysis of the metals futures market reactions to the cold fusion announcement," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 385-397, June.
    7. David McCollum & Nico Bauer & Katherine Calvin & Alban Kitous & Keywan Riahi, 2014. "Fossil resource and energy security dynamics in conventional and carbon-constrained worlds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 413-426, April.
    8. Nico Bauer & Valentina Bosetti & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Alban Kitous & David L Mccollum & Aurélie Méjean & Shilpa Rao & Hal Turton & Leonidas Paroussos & Shuichi Ashina & Katherine Calvin & Kenichi Wad, 2015. "CO2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies," Post-Print hal-01086076, HAL.
    9. Jeffrey J. Quirin & Kevin T. Berry & David O'Brien, 2000. "A Fundamental Analysis Approach to Oil and Gas Firm Valuation," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(7&8), pages 785-820.
    10. Bernhardt, Dan & Campello, Murillo & Kutsoati, Edward, 2006. "Who herds?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 657-675, June.
    11. Tim Groseclose & Jeffrey Milyo, 2005. "A Measure of Media Bias," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(4), pages 1191-1237.
    12. Steven Chu & Arun Majumdar, 2012. "Opportunities and challenges for a sustainable energy future," Nature, Nature, vol. 488(7411), pages 294-303, August.
    13. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December.
    14. Kolodziej, Marek & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Kulatilaka, Nalin & Bicchetti, David & Maystre, Nicolas, 2014. "Crude oil: Commodity or financial asset?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 216-223.
    15. Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen & William Hare & Sarah C. B. Raper & Katja Frieler & Reto Knutti & David J. Frame & Myles R. Allen, 2009. "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1158-1162, April.
    16. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1137, June.
    17. Myles R. Allen & David J. Frame & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & Jason A. Lowe & Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen, 2009. "Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1163-1166, April.
    18. Lily Fang & Joel Peress, 2009. "Media Coverage and the Cross‐section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2023-2052, October.
    19. Jeffrey J. Quirin & Kevin T. Berry & David O’Brien, 2000. "A Fundamental Analysis Approach to Oil and Gas Firm Valuation," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(7‐8), pages 785-820, September.
    20. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1138, June.
    21. Healy, Paul M. & Palepu, Krishna G., 2001. "Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 405-440, September.
    22. Yohn, Teri Lombardi, 1998. "Information Asymmetry around Earnings Announcements," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 165-182, September.
    23. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    24. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    25. McCollum, David & Yang, Christopher, 2009. "Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5580-5596, December.
    26. Gale, John, 2004. "Geological storage of CO2: What do we know, where are the gaps and what more needs to be done?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1329-1338.
    27. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    28. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    29. Rahman, Sajjadur & Serletis, Apostolos, 2011. "The Asymmetric Effects Of Oil Price Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 437-471, November.
    30. Kumar, Alok, 2009. "Hard-to-Value Stocks, Behavioral Biases, and Informed Trading," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(6), pages 1375-1401, December.
    31. Gur Huberman & Tomer Regev, 2001. "Contagious Speculation and a Cure for Cancer: A Nonevent that Made Stock Prices Soar," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 387-396, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiao, Peiran & Veiga, André & Walther, Ansgar, 2020. "Social media, news media and the stock market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 63-90.
    2. Feng, Xunan & Johansson, Anders C. & Wei, Dengxi, 2023. "Judging a book by its cover: Analysts and attention-driven price patterns in China's IPO market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Bang Dang Nguyen, 2015. "Is More News Good News? Media Coverage of CEOs, Firm Value, and Rent Extraction," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(04), pages 1-38, December.
    4. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    5. Chahine, Salim & Mansi, Sattar & Mazboudi, Mohamad, 2015. "Media news and earnings management prior to equity offerings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 177-195.
    6. Aman, Hiroyuki & Moriyasu, Hiroshi, 2022. "Effect of corporate disclosure and press media on market liquidity: Evidence from Japan," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Chiou, Wan-Jiun Paul & Knewtson, Heather S. & Nofsinger, John R., 2019. "Paying attention to social media stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 106-119.
    8. Buehlmaier, Matthias M. M. & Zechner, Josef, 2016. "Financial media, price discovery, and merger arbitrage," CFS Working Paper Series 551, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    9. Carlos Francisco Alves & Ana Luísa Nogueira Parada Ferreira e Silva, 2018. "Coverage news and companies’ stock abnormal returns," FEP Working Papers 608, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    10. Naumer, Hans-Jörg & Yurtoglu, Burcin, 2022. "It is not only what you say, but how you say it: ESG, corporate news, and the impact on CDS spreads," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Ferguson, Colin & Finn, Frank & Hall, Jason & Pinnuck, Matt, 2010. "Speculation and e-commerce: The long and the short of IT," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 79-104.
    12. Bonsall, Samuel B. & Green, Jeremiah & Muller, Karl A., 2020. "Market uncertainty and the importance of media coverage at earnings announcements," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1).
    13. Löffler, Gunter & Norden, Lars & Rieber, Alexander, 2021. "Negative news and the stock market impact of tone in rating reports," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Chia-Wei Chen & Christos Pantzalis & Jung Chul Park, 2013. "Press Coverage And Stock Price Deviation From Fundamental Value," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 175-214, June.
    15. Hillert, Alexander & Jacobs, Heiko & Müller, Sebastian, 2018. "Journalist disagreement," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 57-76.
    16. Goldman, Eitan & Martel, Jordan & Schneemeier, Jan, 2022. "A theory of financial media," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 239-258.
    17. Semih Tartaroglu & Michael Imhof, 2017. "Insider trading and response to earnings announcements: the impact of accelerated disclosure requirements," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 315-336, August.
    18. Ferdinand Graf, 2011. "Mechanically Extracted Company Signals and their Impact on Stock and Credit Markets," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-18, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    19. Doran, James & Jiang, Danling & Peterson, David, 2007. "Short-Sale Constraints and the Non-January Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle," MPRA Paper 4995, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ahmad, Khurshid & Han, JingGuang & Hutson, Elaine & Kearney, Colm & Liu, Sha, 2016. "Media-expressed negative tone and firm-level stock returns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 152-172.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    U.S. energy companies; Unburnable carbon; Stranded assets; Nature journal; Media attention; Event study;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:52:y:2015:i:pa:p:1-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.