IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v127y2023ipas0140988323005431.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic volatility connectedness in the European electricity market

Author

Listed:
  • Sikorska-Pastuszka, Magdalena
  • Papież, Monika

Abstract

Since the 1990s, one of the energy policy objectives of the European Union (EU) has been to create a single, integrated European electricity market. This study uses a broad set of European electricity markets to answer the question whether volatility connectedness is higher in geographically closer markets or whether all markets are integrated. This question is particularly relevant now, at a time of high volatility of energy commodity prices, which can affect energy security in Europe. Our empirical analysis examines volatility connectedness in 26 European electricity markets between 1 August 2007 and 23 February 2022 using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model (TVP-VAR) based on the extended joint connectedness method (Balcilar et al., 2021). Furthermore, the impact of volatility of determinants of electricity prices on volatility connectedness in European electricity markets since 2016 is assessed.

Suggested Citation

  • Sikorska-Pastuszka, Magdalena & Papież, Monika, 2023. "Dynamic volatility connectedness in the European electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:127:y:2023:i:pa:s0140988323005431
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107045
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988323005431
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107045?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2021. "EMU risk-synchronisation and financial fragility through the prism of dynamic connectedness," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-14.
    2. Hasan, Mudassar & Arif, Muhammad & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Ngo, Quang-Thanh & Taghizadeh–Hesary, Farhad, 2021. "Time-frequency connectedness between Asian electricity sectors," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 208-224.
    3. Gugler, Klaus & Haxhimusa, Adhurim, 2019. "Market integration and technology mix: Evidence from the German and French electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 30-46.
    4. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    5. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2020. "Dynamic frequency connectedness between oil and natural gas volatilities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 181-189.
    6. Cai, Yifei & Wu, Yanrui, 2021. "Time-varying interactions between geopolitical risks and renewable energy consumption," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 116-137.
    7. Ioannidis, Filippos & Kosmidou, Kyriaki & Savva, Christos & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 2021. "Electricity pricing using a periodic GARCH model with conditional skewness and kurtosis components," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    8. Ma, Rufei & Liu, Zhenhua & Zhai, Pengxiang, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive volatility spillovers in electricity markets: Time and frequency evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    9. Staffell, Iain & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2018. "The increasing impact of weather on electricity supply and demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 65-78.
    10. Do, Hung Xuan & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2020. "Electricity market integration, decarbonisation and security of supply: Dynamic volatility connectedness in the Irish and Great Britain markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    11. Hellwig, Michael & Schober, Dominik & Woll, Oliver, 2020. "Measuring market integration and estimating policy impacts on the Swiss electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    12. Cambini, Carlo & Congiu, Raffaele & Jamasb, Tooraj & Llorca, Manuel & Soroush, Golnoush, 2020. "Energy Systems Integration: Implications for public policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    13. Xiao, Binqing & Yang, Ye & Peng, Xuerong & Fang, Libing, 2019. "Measuring the connectedness of European electricity markets using the network topology of variance decompositions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    14. Berrisch, Jonathan & Pappert, Sven & Ziel, Florian & Arsova, Antonia, 2023. "Modeling volatility and dependence of European carbon and energy prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    15. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    16. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
    17. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    18. Davide Ciferri & Maria Chiara D’Errico & Paolo Polinori, 2020. "Integration and convergence in European electricity markets," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(2), pages 463-492, July.
    19. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    20. Le, Hong Lam & Ilea, Valentin & Bovo, Cristian, 2019. "Integrated European intra-day electricity market: Rules, modeling and analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 258-273.
    21. Jha, Amit Prakash & Mahajan, Aarushi & Singh, Sanjay Kumar & Kumar, Piyush, 2022. "Renewable energy proliferation for sustainable development: Role of cross-border electricity trade," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 1189-1199.
    22. Jaeck, Edouard & Lautier, Delphine, 2016. "Volatility in electricity derivative markets: The Samuelson effect revisited," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 300-313.
    23. Auer, Benjamin R., 2016. "How does Germany's green energy policy affect electricity market volatility? An application of conditional autoregressive range models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 621-628.
    24. A Ciarreta and A Zarraga, 2015. "Analysis of mean and volatility price transmissions in the MIBEL and EPEX electricity spot markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    25. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Nehler, Henrik & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Uncertainties and extreme risk spillover in the energy markets: A time-varying copula-based CoVaR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-126.
    26. Vlassopoulos, Chloé, 2020. "Persistent lignite dependency: The Greek energy sector under pressure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    27. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    28. Dogan, Eyup & Madaleno, Mara & Taskin, Dilvin & Tzeremes, Panayiotis, 2022. "Investigating the spillovers and connectedness between green finance and renewable energy sources," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 709-722.
    29. Jozef Baruník & Tomáš Křehlík, 2018. "Measuring the Frequency Dynamics of Financial Connectedness and Systemic Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 271-296.
    30. Rinne, Sonja, 2019. "Radioinactive: Do nuclear power plant outages in France affect the German electricity prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(S1).
    31. Amri Amamou, Souhir & Aguir Bargaoui, Saoussen, 2022. "Energy markets responds to Covid-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    32. Ciarreta, Aitor & Nasirov, Shahriyar & Silva, Carlos, 2016. "The development of market power in the Spanish power generation sector: Perspectives after market liberalization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 700-710.
    33. Chen, Ruoyu & Iqbal, Najaf & Irfan, Muhammad & Shahzad, Farrukh & Fareed, Zeeshan, 2022. "Does financial stress wreak havoc on banking, insurance, oil, and gold markets? New empirics from the extended joint connectedness of TVP-VAR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    34. Han, Lin & Kordzakhia, Nino & Trück, Stefan, 2020. "Volatility spillovers in Australian electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    35. Helena Chuliá, Dolores Furió, and Jorge M. Uribe, 2019. "Volatility Spillovers in Energy Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    36. Wu, Siping & Xia, Guilin & Liu, Lang, 2023. "A novel decomposition integration model for power coal price forecasting," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    37. Edouard Jaeck & Delphine Lautier, 2016. "Volatility in electricity derivative markets: the Samuelson effect revisited," Post-Print hal-01488127, HAL.
    38. Luigi Grossi & Sven Heim & Kai Hüschelrath & Michael Waterson, 2018. "Electricity market integration and the impact of unilateral policy reforms," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 799-820.
    39. Newbery, David & Strbac, Goran & Viehoff, Ivan, 2016. "The benefits of integrating European electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 253-263.
    40. Frömmel, Michael & Han, Xing & Kratochvil, Stepan, 2014. "Modeling the daily electricity price volatility with realized measures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 492-502.
    41. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    42. Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti & Fabio Baldi, 2010. "Long-run relations in european electricity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 805-832.
    43. Lei, Shunbo & Pozo, David & Wang, Ming-Hao & Li, Qifeng & Li, Yupeng & Peng, Chaoyi, 2022. "Power economic dispatch against extreme weather conditions: The price of resilience," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    44. Apergis, Nicholas & Fontini, Fulvio & Inchauspe, Julian, 2017. "Integration of regional electricity markets in Australia: A price convergence assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 411-418.
    45. Sassan Alizadeh & Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Range‐Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1047-1091, June.
    46. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    47. Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "On the transmission mechanism of country-specific and international economic uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from a TVP-VAR connectedness decomposition approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 63-71.
    48. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    49. Jonathan Berrisch & Sven Pappert & Florian Ziel & Antonia Arsova, 2022. "Modeling Volatility and Dependence of European Carbon and Energy Prices," Papers 2208.14311, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    50. de Menezes, Lilian M. & Houllier, Melanie A., 2016. "Reassessing the integration of European electricity markets: A fractional cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 132-150.
    51. de Menezes, Lilian M. & Houllier, Melanie A., 2015. "Germany's nuclear power plant closures and the integration of electricity markets in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 357-368.
    52. Uribe, Jorge M. & Mosquera-López, Stephania & Arenas, Oscar J., 2022. "Assessing the relationship between electricity and natural gas prices in European markets in times of distress," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    53. Khan, Khalid & Khurshid, Adnan & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier, 2023. "Energy security analysis in a geopolitically volatile world: A causal study," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    54. Uribe, Jorge M. & Mosquera-López, Stephanía & Guillen, Montserrat, 2020. "Characterizing electricity market integration in Nord Pool," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    55. Bunn, Derek W. & Gianfreda, Angelica, 2010. "Integration and shock transmissions across European electricity forward markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 278-291, March.
    56. Guido Pepermans, 2019. "European energy market liberalization: experiences and challenges," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 3-26, January.
    57. Giorgio Castagneto-Gissey & Mario Chavez & Fabrizio de Vico Fallani, 2014. "Dynamic Granger-causal networks of electricity spot prices: A novel approach to market integration," Post-Print hal-01023418, HAL.
    58. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & Christos Floros & David Gabauer, 2022. "Volatility Contagion Between Crude Oil and G7 Stock Markets in the Light of Trade Wars and COVID-19: A TVP-VAR Extended Joint Connectedness Approach," Springer Books, in: Christos Floros & Ioannis Chatziantoniou (ed.), Applications in Energy Finance, chapter 0, pages 145-168, Springer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ma, Rufei & Liu, Zhenhua & Zhai, Pengxiang, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive volatility spillovers in electricity markets: Time and frequency evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    2. Abdullah, Mohammad & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Wali Ullah, G M & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Khan, Isma, 2023. "Tail risk contagion across electricity markets in crisis periods," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    3. Han, Lin & Kordzakhia, Nino & Trück, Stefan, 2020. "Volatility spillovers in Australian electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Hasan, Mudassar & Arif, Muhammad & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Ngo, Quang-Thanh & Taghizadeh–Hesary, Farhad, 2021. "Time-frequency connectedness between Asian electricity sectors," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 208-224.
    5. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Gabauer, David & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Stenfors, Alexis, 2023. "Model-free connectedness measures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Stenfors, Alexis & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2022. "Independent policy, dependent outcomes: A game of cross-country dominoes across European yield curves," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Szafranek, Karol & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2022. "Are European natural gas markets connected? A time-varying spillovers analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Do, Hung Xuan & Nepal, Rabindra & Pham, Son Duy & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2023. "Electricity Market Crisis in Europe and Cross Border Price Effects: A Quantile Return Connectedness Analysis," Working Papers 8-2023, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    10. Evžen Kočenda & Michala Moravcová & Evžen Kocenda, 2024. "Frequency Volatility Connectedness and Portfolio Hedging of U.S. Energy Commodities," CESifo Working Paper Series 10889, CESifo.
    11. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2022. "Long-memory and volatility spillovers across petroleum futures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    12. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gabauer, David & Gozgor, Giray, 2023. "Oil price shocks and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from decomposed and partial connectedness measures for oil importing and exporting economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    13. Chanatásig-Niza, Evelyn & Ciarreta, Aitor & Zarraga, Ainhoa, 2022. "A volatility spillover analysis with realized semi(co)variances in Australian electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    14. Juncal Cunado & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Realized Volatility Spillovers between Energy and Metal Markets: A Time-Varying Connectedness Approach," Working Papers 202180, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. Feng, Huiqun & Zhang, Jun & Guo, Na, 2023. "Time-varying linkages between energy and stock markets: Dynamic spillovers and driving factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    16. Juncal Cunado & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2022. "On the Propagation Mechanism of International Real Interest Rate Spillovers: Evidence from More than 200 Years of Data," Working Papers 202212, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    17. Le, Thanh Ha, 2023. "Quantile time-frequency connectedness between cryptocurrency volatility and renewable energy volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic and Ukraine-Russia conflicts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 613-625.
    18. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "Integration and risk transmission in the market for crude oil: New evidence from a time-varying parameter frequency connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    20. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zhou, Hegang & Xu, Chao & Zhang, Xiaoming, 2023. "Dynamic spillover effects among international crude oil markets from the time-frequency perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:127:y:2023:i:pa:s0140988323005431. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.