IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v123y2023ics0140988323002475.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric impact of oil price on current account balance: Evidence from oil importing countries

Author

Listed:
  • Chang, Lei
  • Mohsin, Muhammad
  • Gao, Zhennan
  • Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad

Abstract

This study investigates the asymmetric linkage between oil price and current account balance (CAB) in ten oil-importing emerging countries by employing a unique “Quantile-on-Quantile” methodology. The estimations reveal that the oil price is adversely related to CAB in selected economies at various quantiles of data distribution. The findings suggest that the impact of oil prices on CAB is asymmetric, with increases having a more significant negative effect than decreases having a positive effect. Furthermore, the effect of oil prices on CAB is more significant for net oil importers that have a higher dependency on oil imports. Finally, the findings highlight the need for policymakers in oil-importing countries to recognize the non-linear relationship between oil prices and CAB.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Lei & Mohsin, Muhammad & Gao, Zhennan & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of oil price on current account balance: Evidence from oil importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:123:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323002475
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106749
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988323002475
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106749?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Dongyang & Mohsin, Muhammad & Rasheed, Abdul Khaliq & Chang, Youngho & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2021. "Public spending and green economic growth in BRI region: Mediating role of green finance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    2. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gupta, Rangan & Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2017. "Geopolitical risks and the oil-stock nexus over 1899–2016," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 165-173.
    3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Nasiri, Maryam Akbari, 2020. "Understanding corporate debt from the oil market perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    4. Xiuzhen, Xie & Zheng, Wenxiu & Umair, Muhammad, 2022. "Testing the fluctuations of oil resource price volatility: A hurdle for economic recovery," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "Does drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve help stabilize oil prices?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 673-691, September.
    6. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Naidoo, Lutchmee & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Amoo, Nii, 2018. "Implications of oil prices shocks for the major emerging economies: A comparative analysis of BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 76-88.
    7. Xie, Qiwei & Liu, Ranran & Qian, Tao & Li, Jingyu, 2021. "Linkages between the international crude oil market and the Chinese stock market: A BEKK-GARCH-AFD approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    8. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Are Product Spreads Useful For Forecasting Oil Prices? An Empirical Evaluation Of The Verleger Hypothesis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 562-580, April.
    9. Liu, Bing-Yue & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2017. "Dynamic return-volatility dependence and risk measure of CoVaR in the oil market: A time-varying mixed copula model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 53-65.
    10. Li, ChangZheng & Umair, Muhammad, 2023. "Does green finance development goals affects renewable energy in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 898-905.
    11. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    12. Forhad, Md. Abdur Rahman & Alam, Md. Rafayet, 2022. "Impact of oil demand and supply shocks on the exchange rates of selected Southeast Asian countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    13. Kim, Myung Suk, 2018. "Impacts of supply and demand factors on declining oil prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1059-1065.
    14. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2013. "How crude oil consumption impacts on economic growth of Sub-Saharan Africa?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 74-83.
    15. Jianhe Wang & Mengxing Cui & Lei Chang, 2023. "Evaluating economic recovery by measuring the COVID-19 spillover impact on business practices: evidence from Asian markets intermediaries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1629-1650, June.
    16. Sotoudeh, M-Ali & Worthington, Andrew C., 2016. "Estimating the effects of global oil market shocks on Australian merchandise trade," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 74-84.
    17. Selmi, Refk & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Kasmaoui, Kamal & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Errami, Youssef, 2022. "The dual shocks of the COVID-19 and the oil price collapse: A spark or a setback for the circular economy?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    18. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2020. "Oil price drivers, geopolitical uncertainty and oil exporters' currencies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    19. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Oil shocks and stock market volatility of the BRICS: A GARCH-MIDAS approach," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    20. Mokni, Khaled & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Youssef, Manel, 2020. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive the dynamic connectedness between oil price shocks and gold price?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    21. Qiang Ji & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Muhammad Tahir Suleman, 2020. "Dynamic structural impacts of oil shocks on exchange rates: lessons to learn," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, December.
    22. Hanan Morsy, 2012. "Current Account Determinants for Oil-Exporting Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 122-133, March.
    23. Mohsin, Muhammad & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2022. "Nexus between financial development and energy poverty in Latin America," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    24. Diaz, Elena Maria & Molero, Juan Carlos & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2016. "Oil price volatility and stock returns in the G7 economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 417-430.
    25. Yu, Lean & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2008. "Forecasting crude oil price with an EMD-based neural network ensemble learning paradigm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2623-2635, September.
    26. Alhassan, Abdulrahman & Basher, Syed Abul & Kabir Hassan, M., 2019. "Oil subsidies and the risk exposure of oil-user stocks: Evidence from net oil producers," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 461-472.
    27. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1220-1239.
    28. Filis, George, 2010. "Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 877-886, July.
    29. Jian Yang & Yinggang Zhou, 2020. "Return and volatility transmission between China's and international crude oil futures markets: A first look," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 860-884, June.
    30. Dutta, Anupam & Bouri, Elie & Noor, Md Hasib, 2021. "Climate bond, stock, gold, and oil markets: Dynamic correlations and hedging analyses during the COVID-19 outbreak," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    31. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "Inflation targeting & implications of oil shocks for inflation expectations in oil-importing and exporting economies: Evidence from three Nordic Kingdoms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    32. Liu, Fang & Umair, Muhammad & Gao, Junjun, 2023. "Assessing oil price volatility co-movement with stock market volatility through quantile regression approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    33. Wachtmeister, Henrik & Henke, Petter & Höök, Mikael, 2018. "Oil projections in retrospect: Revisions, accuracy and current uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 138-153.
    34. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Sarwar, Suleman & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2019. "Analysing volatility spillover between the oil market and the stock market in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries: Implications on portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 22-32.
    35. Cui, Da & Yin, Helin & Liu, Yupeng & Li, Ji & Pan, Shuo & Wang, Qing, 2022. "Effect of final pyrolysis temperature on the composition and structure of shale oil: Synergistic use of multiple analysis and testing methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    36. Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Sharif, Arshian & Aman, Ameenullah & Suki, Norazah Mohd & Salman, Asma & Khan, Syed Abdul Rehman, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of oil price on sectoral Islamic stocks: New evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    37. Victor Troster, 2018. "Testing for Granger-causality in quantiles," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 850-866, September.
    38. Fang, Wei & Liu, Zhen & Surya Putra, Ahmad Romadhoni, 2022. "Role of research and development in green economic growth through renewable energy development: Empirical evidence from South Asia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 1142-1152.
    39. Wu, Qihan & Yan, Dong & Umair, Muhammad, 2023. "Assessing the role of competitive intelligence and practices of dynamic capabilities in business accommodation of SMEs," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1103-1114.
    40. Chang, Lei & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Chen, Huangen & Mohsin, Muhammad, 2022. "Do green bonds have environmental benefits?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fang, Ying & Fan, Ying & Haroon, Muhammad & Dilanchiev, Azer, 2023. "Exploring the relationship between global economic policy and volatility of crude futures: A two-factor GARCH-MIDAS analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    2. Tang, Qianning & Shahla, Rzayeva & Leyla, Aliyeva & Sevinj, Huseynova, 2023. "Moderating role of carbon emission and institutional stability on renewable energy across developing countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 413-419.
    3. Xu, Zilin & Mohsin, Muhammad & Ullah, Kaleem & Ma, Xiaoyu, 2023. "Using econometric and machine learning models to forecast crude oil prices: Insights from economic history," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Ding, Xiuying & Liu, Xuemei, 2023. "Renewable energy development and transportation infrastructure matters for green economic growth? Empirical evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 634-646.
    5. Yuan, Shengyun & Li, Changhao & Wang, Mingyang & Wu, Hao & Chang, Lei, 2023. "A way toward green economic growth: Role of energy efficiency and fiscal incentive in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 599-609.
    6. Telfah, Sadeq & Chau, Ka Yin & Tran, Trung Kien & Bui, Anh Tuan & Tai, Nguyen Tan & Phan, Thi Thu Hien, 2023. "Role of financial markets and natural resource utilization in green economic recovery: Evidence from selected developing economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Chang, Lei & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Mohsin, Muhammad, 2023. "Role of artificial intelligence on green economic development: Joint determinates of natural resources and green total factor productivity," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Zhang, Ziwei & Fu, Hu & Xie, Shiqi & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier & Urinov, Bobur, 2023. "Role of green finance and regional environmental efficiency in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 407-415.
    9. Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Adekoya, Oluwasegun Babatunde & Rashidi, Muhammad Mahdi & Ghasemi Doudkanlou, Mohammad & Dolatabadi, Ali, 2022. "Forecast of Bayesian-based dynamic connectedness between oil market and Islamic stock indices of Islamic oil-exporting countries: Application of the cascade-forward backpropagation network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Luo, Wenqi & Ma, Yong, 2023. "Impact of environmental policy on the innovation of SMEs: Chinese evidence," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 917-928.
    11. Dai, Li & Xiong, Yuyu, 2023. "Does the green finance development and renewable energy affect the economic recovery in Asian economies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    12. Cao, Feifei, 2023. "Digital financial innovation and renewable electrification: A step toward zero carbon nexus," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    13. Yu, Mengyan & Umair, Muhammad & Oskenbayev, Yessengali & Karabayeva, Zhаnsaya, 2023. "Exploring the nexus between monetary uncertainty and volatility in global crude oil: A contemporary approach of regime-switching," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    14. Li, Junji & Wang, Rui & Aizhan, Duisebayeva & Karimzade, Mehriban, 2023. "Assessing the impacts of Covid-19 on stock exchange, gold prices, and financial markets: Fresh evidences from econometric analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    15. Chen, Wei & Zou, Wandan & Zhong, Kaiyang & Aliyeva, Alina, 2023. "Machine learning assessment under the development of green technology innovation: A perspective of energy transition," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 65-73.
    16. Zhang, Rongxin & Aljumah, Ahmad Ibrahim & Ghardallou, Wafa & Li, Zeyun & Li, Jinhua & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier, 2023. "How economic development promotes the sustainability targets? Role of natural resources utilization," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    17. Qi, Haozhi & Huang, Xucheng & Sheeraz, Muhammad, 2023. "Green financing for renewable energy development: Driving the attainment of zero-emission targets," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 30-37.
    18. Sun, Gebing & Li, Guozhi & Dilanchiev, Azer & Kazimova, Asli, 2023. "Promotion of green financing: Role of renewable energy and energy transition in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 769-775.
    19. Fan, Weina & Anser, Muhammad Khalid & Nasir, Muhammad Hamid & Nazar, Raima, 2023. "Uncertainty in firm innovation scheme and impact of green fiscal policy; Economic recovery of Chinese firms in the post-Covid-19 era," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1424-1439.
    20. Kuang, Hewu & Liang, Yiyan & Zhao, Wenjia & Cai, Jiahong, 2023. "Impact of natural resources and technology on economic development and sustainable environment – Analysis of resources-energy-growth-environment linkages in BRICS," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:123:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323002475. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.