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Political risk and expected government bond returns

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  • Duyvesteyn, Johan
  • Martens, Martin
  • Verwijmeren, Patrick

Abstract

Political risk relates to both the ability and the willingness of governments to repay debts. We find that bond prices only slowly adapt to changes in political risk. The expected bond returns for countries whose political risk ratings have improved are higher than those for countries whose political risk ratings have deteriorated. This change in political risk premium cannot be explained by the risk factors default premium, term premium, and liquidity, or by momentum, changes in credit ratings, economic risk or financial risk. The risk-adjusted performance is 7.6% per annum for emerging bond markets and 0.8% per annum for euro government bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Duyvesteyn, Johan & Martens, Martin & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2016. "Political risk and expected government bond returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 498-512.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:38:y:2016:i:pa:p:498-512
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2016.01.016
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    Cited by:

    1. Chuc Anh Tu & Tapan Sarker & Ehsan Rasoulinezhad, 2020. "Factors Influencing the Green Bond Market Expansion: Evidence from a Multi-Dimensional Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-14, June.
    2. Boubaker, Sabri & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Piljak, Vanja & Savvides, Andreas, 2019. "Financial development, government bond returns, and stability: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 81-96.
    3. Wang, He & Yao, Yang & Zhou, Yue, 2022. "Markets price politicians: Evidence from China’s municipal bond markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. Vanja Piljak & Laurens Swinkels, 2017. "Fundamental indexation for developed, emerging, and frontier government bond markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(5), pages 405-420, September.
    5. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "Economic volatility and sovereign yields’ determinants: a time-varying approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 427-451, February.
    6. Christopher A. Hartwell & Paul M. Vaaler, 2023. "The Price of Empire: Unrest Location and Sovereign Risk in Tsarist Russia," Papers 2309.06885, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    7. Gong, Yuting & Li, Xiao & Xue, Wenjun, 2023. "The impact of EPU spillovers on the bond market volatility: Global evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    8. Kräussl, Roman & Lehnert, Thorsten & Stefanova, Denitsa, 2016. "The European sovereign debt crisis: What have we learned?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 363-373.
    9. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Al Refai, Hisham, 2019. "Political tensions, stock market dependence and volatility spillover: Evidence from the recent intra-GCC crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political risk; Government bond debt; Credit rating; Emerging debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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